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(Technical analysis chart by Tech Trader)

Tech Trader + Grok

(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-10-06	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the uptrend is confirmed but recent quick losses on similar entries highlight risks of entering near range highs without a clear dip or new bullish catalysts, with earnings approaching on 10/31/2025. Recent chart data shows XOM in a clear uptrend with EMA at 112.64 above SMA at 111.14 and closing price of 113.99 above both, but the past month has seen EMA and SMA tightly converged without frequent crossings, supporting trend clarity for potential entriesâ€”however, price is not on a significant dip, trading near recent highs around 114-115 after a pullback to 111.29, which aligns with avoiding buys at the top of the range per resistance at 118.72. Reviewing trade history, the September longs entered around 114-115 quickly reversed with losses on pullbacks below entry and EMA, often amid oil price volatility; simulating similar setups from earlier 2025, like the July entry at 112.91 that dropped sharply, shows a <50% win rate on comparable bounce trades without strong volume support, suggesting whipsaw risk here. Fundamentally, XOM's oil exposure ties to global energy dynamicsâ€”searching recent news reveals bullish items like OPEC+ production cut extensions through 2025 (bullish, credible from Reuters, timely as of early October 2025, potential for sustained higher oil prices driving XOM up) and rumors of increased U.S. shale output (bearish, moderate credibility from industry forums, could pressure prices down if realized). Neutral factors include no major insider activity or unusual options flow per latest filings, and social media sentiment mixed on X with discussions of energy transition risks. Technicals prioritize: MACD at 0.5394 positive but weakening, RSI at 53.9 neutral, and low volume today (6M shares) versus prior spikes indicates lack of conviction for breakout. Rising support trendline at 111.35 offers downside protection, but without volume capitulation or oversold signals, better to wait for a dip towards 112-113 for high-confidence long entry with favorable risk/reward, avoiding repetition of past chase-the-high mistakes. No short setup as it's not a downtrend and above EMA. Upcoming events: Earnings 10/31/2025; no other major catalysts in next 3 days.
2025-10-03	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend from recent price crossings of EMA/SMA without sustained direction, combined with bearish MACD signal and history of quick pullback losses on similar long entries. typical daily ranges), and no fresh volume capitulation to signal a bottom despite the "!" marker 9 bars ago on 9/22. This setup advises against new entries, especially after the last long trade from 9/16 exited at a loss on 9/30 due to similar volatility and oil price rumors causing downside....
2025-10-02	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but price below EMA, recent volume capitulation not invalidated, and past trades show quick losses on similar long entries amid oil price volatility. RSI at 45.88 is neutral, not oversold, and MACD at 0.57 below its signal at 0.92 suggests bearish momentum, though not extreme. Volume today was lower at 8 million shares, not indicating conviction....
2025-10-01	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with price below EMA despite EMA above SMA, recent bearish MACD crossover, and we just exited a losing long position on 9/30 at 112.75 with today's close at 112.1 showing continued weakness without high-conviction reversal signals....
2025-09-30	SOLD
Summary: XOM has dropped below the entry price and EMA with a bearish MACD crossover, unclear trend from tightly converged EMA/SMA, and recent oil price decline due to Middle East ceasefire rumors, prompting an exit to avoid repeating past quick losses on similar pullbacks while holding above the recent volume capitulation low....
2025-09-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM remains in an uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, holding above recent volume capitulation at $112.02, and no immediate bearish catalysts or earnings risks justifying an exit from the long position entered at $114.68....
2025-09-26	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM continues in a strong uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, recent volume capitulation bounce holding firm above $112.02 without breakdowns, and no immediate earnings or bearish catalysts warranting exit from the long entered at $114.68....
2025-09-25	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM remains in a clear uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, recent bounce from volume capitulation at $112.02 holding above without sustained breakdowns, and no immediate earnings or negative catalysts to exit the long position entered 7 bars ago at $114.68....
2025-09-24	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM continues in a clear uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, recent bounce from low-conviction volume capitulation at $112.02 without breakdowns, and no immediate earnings or catalysts warranting exit from the long position entered at $114.68 six bars ago....
2025-09-23	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM remains in a clear uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, recent bounce from support after low-conviction volume capitulation at $112.02, and no immediate breakdowns or catalysts like earnings to exit the existing long position entered at $114.68 five bars ago....
2025-09-22	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM's uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, and no breakdowns or catalysts warranting exit from the long at $114.68 despite recent pullback to $112.19 near support....
2025-09-19	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM remains in an uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, and no immediate catalysts or breakdowns justifying an early exit from the recent entry at $114.68....
2025-09-18	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM maintains a solid uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, RSI around 60 indicating momentum, supported by stable oil prices and no imminent earnings or disruptive events....
2025-09-17	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM remains in a clear uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, RSI at 64 showing momentum, bolstered by stable oil prices and no near-term catalysts to disrupt the hold....
2025-09-16	BUY
Summary: XOM is in a clear uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD crossover, RSI at 63 indicating room to run, supported by rising oil prices from recent OPEC production cut rumors and no immediate earnings risks....
2025-09-15	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as XOM's trend is unclear with tightly converged EMA and SMA without volume capitulation, recent longs resulted in quick losses from downside breaks, and no high-confidence setup for entry despite uptrend signals and stable oil prices....
2025-09-12	CASH
Summary: XOM's technicals show an unclear trend with EMA and SMA tightly converged and recent price crossings without volume capitulation, preventing a new long entry despite price above both averages, while no downtrend supports shorting, and recent trade history warns against repeating quick losses from similar setups....
2025-09-11	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend from tightly rangebound EMA and SMA with no volume capitulation, despite price above both in a potential uptrend, and recent trade losses highlight risks of entering without stronger signals....
2025-09-10	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with tightly converged EMA and SMA, recent long position exited at a loss due to similar conditions, and no high-confidence setup for re-entry despite slight price recovery....
2025-09-09	CASH
Summary: Trend remains unclear with EMA and SMA tightly converged without volume capitulation, avoiding new entries after recent quick loss on similar setup, while oil market stability offers no strong catalyst....
2025-09-08	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA slightly above SMA but price below both, recent crossing, tight convergence, no volume capitulation, and recent exit from long position on 9/3 without compelling new reasons for re-entry....
2025-09-05	CASH
Summary: Trend remains unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but price below both, tightly rangebound without volume capitulation, so avoiding new entries while monitoring for clearer signals amid recent volatility....
2025-09-04	CASH
Summary: XOM's trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly converged after a recent cross, price just above both without strong momentum or volume support, and we exited a long position yesterday at a similar level amid volatility, so staying in cash avoids poor re-entry timing....
2025-09-03	SOLD
Summary: XOM's price dropped sharply to 111.8 below the entry of 114.69 amid weakening momentum, with EMA and SMA tightly converged indicating unclear trend, no volume capitulation, and bearish oil market signals from recent inventory builds suggesting further downside risk....
2025-09-02	BUY
Summary: XOM is in a clear uptrend with EMA slightly above SMA and price well above both, supported by rising support trendlines and recent bullish momentum from oil price stability, without immediate earnings risks or volume capitulation signals....
2025-08-29	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with EMA below SMA, price above both, multiple price crossings of MAs in the past month without volume capitulation, avoiding new entries per technical guidelines despite recent price recovery....
2025-08-28	CASH
Summary: XOM's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA despite price above both, no volume capitulation, and recent trade history shows a quick loss from chasing momentum without sustained uptrend confirmation, so stay in cash to avoid low-confidence entry....
2025-08-27	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with EMA below SMA, price above both, MAs tightly rangebound without frequent crossings but no volume capitulation, avoiding new entries per technical rules after recent exit loss on sharp drop. No "!" or "BOT" flagged in the past month confirms this caution. MACD is positive at 0.47 above its signal (-0.24), suggesting some bullish momentum, and RSI at 64 is neutral, not overbought, but we can't enter long without a confirmed uptrend or dip in one. Shorting is invalid as price is above EMA, and it's not a downtrend....
2025-08-26	CASH
Summary: XOM's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, no volume capitulation, and recent crossings indicating rangebound action, so avoid new entries per technical rules while oil market stability supports holding cash for better setups....
2025-08-25	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, avoiding new entries while no volume capitulation or clear downtrend for shorts, and recent trade history shows risk of sharp drops after longs without stronger confirmation. No recent volume capitulation flagged, so no exception for longs in a potential downtrend reversal. Technical indicators like RSI at 60.97 (neutral, not overbought/oversold), MACD at -0.02 (near zero, no strong momentum), and Stochastic showing overbought at 81% suggest caution without bullish divergence. Support at $107.15 (recent, strength 3) could hold if tested, but resistance at $112.92 (falling trendline) caps upside, keeping it rangebound around $106-112 recently....
2025-08-22	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA below SMA but price above both, no volume capitulation, and recent trade loss from chasing momentum without confirmed uptrend....
2025-08-21	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price between them, no volume capitulation for long entry in downtrend, and price above EMA preventing short entry, while learning from recent loss on sharp drop....
2025-08-20	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear as EMA is below SMA but price is above EMA without recent volume capitulation, so stay in cash to avoid low-confidence entries while monitoring for clearer setups....
2025-08-19	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear downtrend with price crossing EMA twice in past month without capitulation, near support at 107.15 avoiding short at potential bottom, and recent exit from long position....
2025-08-18	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend is confirmed but price is near support levels around 106-107, risking a bounce and poor entry for a short position with required multi-week hold....
2025-08-15	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound below typical daily price ranges, avoiding new entries while price hovers near support without capitulation....
2025-08-14	CASH
Summary: Price is in a downtrend with EMA below SMA and close below both, but it's testing near-term support at 107.15 without volume capitulation, creating risk of a bounce while recent trade loss suggests waiting for better entry....
2025-08-13	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the stock is in a downtrend but price is near support at 107.15, avoiding shorting at the bottom of the range per technical guidelines....
2025-08-12	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists without volume capitulation for a long entry, and after recent long loss, patience is key to avoid shorting lower prematurely....
2025-08-11	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound below daily price ranges without volume capitulation, so avoid new entries and stay in cash for a high-confidence setup....
2025-08-08	CASH
Summary: XOM's trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but price below both, tightly rangebound indicators without clear direction or volume capitulation, so stay in cash to avoid low-confidence entries post-recent loss....
2025-08-07	CASH
Summary: XOM's trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but both tightly bound and price below them, avoiding new entries, supplemented by recent earnings beat yet continued price decline without volume capitulation....
2025-08-06	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but tightly rangebound, price below both after recent crosses without volume capitulation, and following a quick loss on prior long position, so staying in cash to avoid low-confidence entry near support levels amid post-earnings volatility....
2025-08-05	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear as price is below both EMA and SMA while EMA remains above SMA without recent crossings, avoiding new entries despite strong Q2 earnings beat and record production signaling potential buy on dip....
2025-08-04	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA above SMA but price below both, recent long position exit at a loss near current levels, no volume capitulation, and volatile price action around 107 support without high-confidence setup for long or short....
2025-08-01	CASH
Summary: XOM's trend is unclear with price between EMA and SMA, recent earnings release today causing volatility, and we just exited a long at a loss avoiding re-entry higher soon....
2025-07-31	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to upcoming Q2 earnings on August 1 with expected EPS decline and no compelling positive catalysts overriding the technical uptrend but high volatility risk....
2025-07-30	CASH
Summary: Stay in cash to avoid holding through Q2 earnings on August 1 amid lowered estimates and potential volatility, while the uptrend persists but we recently exited a long at a loss and price hasn't dipped favorably....
2025-07-29	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to upcoming Q2 earnings on August 1 with expected EPS decline amid weaker oil prices, recent long trade loss on similar price levels, and clear uptrend but need to avoid entry right before catalyst without strong positive conviction....
2025-07-28	CASH
Summary: With Exxon Mobil's Q2 2025 earnings scheduled for August 1 and the stock in a recovering uptrend but still below recent highs after our prior loss, staying in cash avoids holding through the catalyst while seeking a clearer dip for re-entry....
2025-07-25	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to upcoming earnings on August 1 with weak Q2 forecasts from Zacks, recent long trade loss at lower price, and need for clearer post-earnings trend confirmation despite current uptrend....
2025-07-24	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear due to frequent price crossings of EMAs without volume capitulation, recent long exit at a loss suggests waiting for better entry below 107.77, and upcoming Q2 earnings likely in early August warrant caution....
2025-07-23	CASH
Summary: Recent sharp drop led to a quick loss on our previous long position, and with the trend unclear as price sits below the EMA in a potential pullback ahead of Q2 earnings on August 1, it's best to stay in cash for a better risk/reward setup....
2025-07-22	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear as price is below both EMA and SMA despite EMA above SMA, recent long position exited at a loss, and upcoming earnings could introduce volatility, so stay in cash for a better entry....
2025-07-21	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash after recent long exit loss, as trend is unclear with price below both MAs despite EMA above SMA, no volume capitulation flagged, and potential earnings risk soon....
2025-07-18	SOLD
Summary: Exit long position in XOM as price dropped sharply below $112.91 entry to $107.76 on high volume, breaking supports with bearish MACD crossover, declining RSI to 41, and amid falling oil prices from global demand concerns....
2025-07-17	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM maintains bullish potential with price above key supports around $102-105, neutral RSI, positive MACD trend, and supportive oil market dynamics from ongoing geopolitical tensions, despite a minor pullback from $112.91 entry....
2025-07-16	HOLD LONG
Summary: XOM maintains bullish momentum with positive MACD crossover, RSI neutral at 53.77, price holding above rising supports around $113 and key 102.88 level, bolstered by steady oil prices amid geopolitical stability and no major bearish news....
2025-07-15	BUY
Summary: XOM shows bullish momentum with positive MACD, RSI not overbought, price above key supports, and supported by rising oil prices from Middle East tensions and strong Q2 earnings.