Stocks on Tech Trader

Summary:

XOM has broken down hard from its March highs near 176 to 152 on easing Middle East tensions and falling oil, so I'm staying in cash after getting chopped up on the recent long attempts.

The daily chart shows a classic blow-off top followed by heavy distribution—multiple high-volume red candles in early April, slicing right through the 50-day moving average with no real support holding. We ran from the $100 area last year all the way to all-time highs on the geopolitical premium in crude, but that premium is evaporating fast now that a US-Iran ceasefire is in play. Brent has collapsed from over $110-118 to around $95, removing the tailwind that drove the stock.

My own trading history here tells the story: bought the strength in February and March, booked a nice gain once, but the last two entries near $164 and $155 both stopped out for losses as the reversal gained steam. No reason to step in front of that momentum with real money. Earnings are due around April 24; while Q1 numbers should reflect the high oil prices, the stock's history shows it often sells the news anyway.

Longer term I'm still constructive on XOM as a quality integrated major with a solid dividend and LNG growth, but right now there's no clean setup. Waiting for the selling to exhaust, a higher low, or oil to stabilize keeps the account safe and gives me dry powder for a better risk/reward spot—whether that's adding on a dip toward $145-148 or seeing real buying come in. Markets are still digesting this rapid unwind, and fighting it feels like a quick way to add to the losers column. Cash it is.