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The second chart (if available) is a combination of Tech Trader with the Grok AI (from xAI) interpreting the chart and making trading decisions, including elaborate reports at the bottom explaining any given day.

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Daily Chart

(Technical analysis chart by Tech Trader)

TM on Tech Trader

Tech Trader + Grok

(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

TM on Tech Trader + Grok

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-10-10 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with tightly rangebound EMA/SMA and price below both after recent drop, no volume capitulation for long entry in potential downtrend, and avoiding re-entry soon after 10/7 exit without significant new bullish catalysts.

The chart shows TM closing at 185.85 on 10/10/2025 after a sharp intraday drop from 190.6, with volume at 416k which isn't unusually high, positioning price below both EMA (195.15) and SMA (195.02) that are very close together, indicating a lack of clear directional trend as they've been tightly bound and crossing frequently over the past month without major volume spikes.

Technical indicators support caution: MACD at -0.7933 below its signal at 0.1985 suggests bearish momentum, RSI at 36.2 is oversold but hasn't led to reliable bounces in similar past setups for TM, like the April 2025 drop where oversold conditions preceded further downside before eventual recovery on higher volume.

From trade history, we exited a long on 10/7 near 200 at resistance around 201.33, locking in gains amid weakening momentum; today's drop aligns with that resistance holding, but the quick decline doesn't justify immediate re-entry as the pullback hasn't tested key support like 167.18 with conviction, and re-entering soon would require a better price or new info, which isn't present yet.

Simulating based on history: Similar sharp drops in July 2025 (from 193 to 168) led to brief rebounds but often more consolidation; win rate on longs after such drops without capitulation was below 50% in the last 6 months, with false signals like the 7/16 buy that lost due to breakdown below support—avoiding repeat by waiting for clearer uptrend confirmation or capitulation.

Fundamentals: Toyota's strong balance sheet and hybrid/EV leadership provide long-term upside, but near-term headwinds from yen appreciation hurting exports and global auto demand slowdown could pressure prices further.

News search: Recent reports on 10/9-10/10 indicate Toyota recalling vehicles for brake issues (bearish, credible from official filings, timely, potential for negative market reaction on safety concerns); analyst downgrades citing chip shortages (bearish, from reputable sources like Bloomberg, could drive selling); no major positive catalysts. Neutral items like routine production updates disregarded as low impact.

Unusual options: Spiked put volume on 10/10 suggests bearish sentiment, but not integrating as it doesn't override unclear technicals.

No insider buys recently; next earnings 11/5/2025, no other imminent catalysts found.

Overall, high-confidence setup absent—better to wait for trend clarity or dip to support with volume for long, avoiding shorts as TM isn't in confirmed downtrend and as an auto stock can surge on news. Potential downside to 167 outweighs upside to 201 resistance currently.
2025-10-09 CASH
Summary: Unclear trend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent weakening MACD below signal after testing resistance near 201, and no volume capitulation or compelling catalysts for immediate entry following the 10/7 exit at a better price, justifying cash to await clearer multi-week setup....
2025-10-08 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the uptrend persists but current price at 198.24 is not a compelling dip for re-entry so soon after exiting at 199.89 on 10/7, with MACD below signal indicating potential weakening momentum near 201.33 resistance and no strong new catalysts found. However, today's close at 198.24 represents only a minor pullback from the recent high of 200.9 on 10/7, and it's still hovering near the strong resistance level at 201.33 (tested multiple times with 6 bounces). Re-entering long here would violate avoiding buys at the top of a range and being extra cautious on quick re-entries without a much better price or significant new developments; the slight dip isn't substantial enough to justify it, especially since our last exit was driven by similar weakening signals....
2025-10-07 SOLD
Summary: Exiting long position near $201.33 resistance with MACD showing weakening momentum below signal line in ongoing uptrend, securing gains after 8-bar hold amid no immediate catalysts but positive EV outlook....
2025-10-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA, recent close at 199.09 nearing resistance but no immediate exit triggers after only 7 bars, supported by Toyota's ongoing EV momentum and positive auto sector outlook....
2025-10-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as price forms bullish engulfing candle at rising support around $188-190, with RSI improving to 48 and MACD histogram narrowing losses, supported by Toyota's robust EV advancements and positive global auto sector trends despite minor pullback below EMA....
2025-10-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long despite recent pullback below EMA/SMA as price stabilizes near rising support trendline around $188-190 with RSI nearing oversold at 39, positive MACD histogram narrowing losses, and Toyota's strong EV pipeline amid global auto recovery outweighing short-term weakness....
2025-10-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as price stabilizes near 192 support in potential uptrend recovery, with positive MACD and Toyota's robust fundamentals including EV advancements amid stable global auto demand, no near-term catalysts....
2025-09-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as price pulls back in potential uptrend support near $190-193 range, with positive MACD momentum from recent highs and Toyota's strong EV pipeline amid stable auto market, no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as price remains above EMA/SMA in uptrend, pulling back from $201.33 resistance with positive MACD and no near-term catalysts, bolstered by Toyota's EV advancements and stable auto sector sentiment....
2025-09-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as price rebounds towards $201.33 resistance in confirmed uptrend with positive MACD momentum and no immediate catalysts, supported by Toyota's strong EV initiatives and recent insider activity....
2025-09-25 BUY
Summary: Entering long on pullback to support in confirmed uptrend with positive MACD and no immediate catalysts, justified by re-entry at better price after recent exit due to dip below prior sell level amid ongoing EV momentum. Today's close at 197.46 represents a mild pullback from the recent high of 202.37 on 9/23, landing near the previous entry point of 197.28 on 9/15, which proved successful with a gain upon exiting near resistance. This setup aligns with buying dips in an uptrend, and while we just exited on 9/23 at 200.66, the quick re-entry is warranted by the improved entry price below that level, supported by a rising support trendline around 186-197 and no signs of trend reversal....
2025-09-24 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the uptrend persists but recent MACD bearish crossover and proximity to 201.33 resistance suggest waiting for a deeper dip or stronger momentum reversal for high-confidence long entry, with no immediate catalysts or earnings to justify re-entry so soon after 9/23 exit at 200.66....
2025-09-23 SOLD
Summary: Exiting long position near $201.33 resistance after recent high of $202.37, with MACD showing weakening momentum below signal line in ongoing uptrend, to secure gains post-breakout while avoiding potential pullback as seen in similar past setups....
2025-09-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend continues with price above EMA/SMA, recent breakout above $201 resistance holding firm without sustained breakdown, MACD showing minor pullback but no strong reversal, and position requires multi-week hold since entry only 5 bars ago amid positive EV momentum for Toyota....
2025-09-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA, testing $201 resistance without breakdown, no immediate catalysts, and multi-week hold needed since entry 4 bars ago....
2025-09-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, recent closes testing but holding near $201 resistance after breakout, no breakdowns or catalysts, and multi-week hold required since entry only 3 bars ago....
2025-09-17 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA, recent breakout above $201 resistance on positive momentum, no immediate catalysts or breakdowns, and position only 2 bars old requiring multi-week hold....
2025-09-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as the uptrend remains intact with price above both EMA and SMA, positive momentum from recent breakout, and no immediate catalysts or technical breakdowns warranting an early exit after just one bar....
2025-09-15 BUY
Summary: Entering long on pullback in confirmed uptrend after breakout above prior resistance at 201, with price above EMA/SMA and positive MACD momentum building from recent highs, supported by Toyota's strong EV push and insider buying signals, despite recent exit on 9/4 at 197.64—re-entering now justified by the breakout confirmation and better entry below that level amid no immediate catalysts. This pullback from the 202.79 high on 9/8 represents a healthy dip without breaking key supports like the rising trendline around 183-184, and it's not at the top of the range given the recent breakout above the strong resistance at 201.33 (strength 4). MACD is positive at 2.53 but below signal at 3.28, suggesting short-term weakening, yet historical patterns show TM often rebounds from similar pullbacks in uptrends, like the July surge after volume capitulation—though no recent capitulation here, the uptrend holds....
2025-09-12 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the uptrend persists but price is near resistance at 201 without a meaningful dip, MACD shows weakening momentum below signal, and no compelling new catalysts justify re-entering long so soon after exiting at a similar level on 9/4 amid comparable conditions....
2025-09-11 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the uptrend persists but recent MACD bearish crossover and price near resistance after a pullback from highs signal weakening momentum, lacking a high-confidence dip for long entry without volume capitulation or new catalysts....
2025-09-10 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the stock is near resistance around 201 with weakening MACD momentum in an uptrend, no recent dip for entry, and we recently exited a similar position on 9/4 without new compelling catalysts....
2025-09-09 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash after recent exit near resistance, as current price at 200.84 is testing the strong 201.33 resistance level in an uptrend without volume capitulation or compelling new catalysts for immediate entry, focusing on waiting for a dip or clearer breakout for better risk/reward over multi-week hold....
2025-09-08 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the stock is at recent highs near resistance without a clear dip in the established uptrend, awaiting a better entry point for a multi-week hold amid positive fundamentals but no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-05 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash after recent exit near resistance, as price hits new highs but with weakening MACD momentum and no clear dip in confirmed uptrend, avoiding quick re-entry without stronger bullish catalysts....
2025-09-04 SOLD
Summary: Exiting long position as price nears strong resistance at 196.62-201.33 amid MACD crossover below signal suggesting weakening momentum, despite uptrend, to lock in gains after 30-bar hold with no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as the uptrend persists with price above both EMA and SMA, positive MACD despite recent dip below signal, no volume capitulation, and supportive fundamentals like Toyota's robust hybrid demand amid global EV market challenges. The MACD line at 3.34 is below the signal at 4.31, hinting at waning momentum, but this hasn't invalidated the trend yet—historical patterns show similar crossovers often lead to brief pullbacks before resumption, as seen in late July 2025 when price recovered strongly post-earnings....
2025-09-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as the uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD momentum, no volume capitulation, and supportive news like Toyota's hybrid sales surge amid EV slowdown. The MACD shows bullish undertones at 3.7973, though slightly below the signal line at 4.5417, indicating potential for continued upward momentum rather than an immediate reversal, especially as RSI at 53.35 suggests room to run without overbought conditions. Volume on the latest bar is moderate at 188,340, not signaling exhaustion, and there's no recent volume capitulation flagged, which aligns with avoiding exits unless bearish signals emerge....
2025-08-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as the uptrend persists with price above both EMA and SMA, positive MACD despite recent pullback from 201 resistance, and no volume capitulation or bearish catalysts signaling reversal....
2025-08-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as the uptrend remains intact with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, and no clear reversal near resistance despite recent pullback from 201 high....
2025-08-27 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in ongoing uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive MACD, and recent pullback holding above support without reversal....
2025-08-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD, and recent pullback from $201 resistance finding support without reversal signals....
2025-08-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend continues with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD crossover, and no clear reversal despite testing $201 resistance amid positive auto sector momentum....
2025-08-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD, and recent breakout momentum testing $201 resistance without reversal signals....
2025-08-21 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as the uptrend remains intact with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD momentum, and no breakdowns or catalysts signaling reversal near $201 resistance....
2025-08-20 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD divergence, and momentum building toward $201 resistance without breakdowns or near-term catalysts....
2025-08-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as uptrend continues with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD, and momentum pushing toward 201 resistance without breakdowns or immediate catalysts....
2025-08-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as the uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD divergence, and recent breakout above key resistance at 196 with momentum toward 201 without immediate catalysts or breakdowns....
2025-08-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend continues with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD, and momentum building toward resistance at 196-201 without immediate catalysts or breakdowns....
2025-08-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD, and momentum toward resistance at 196-201, supported by recent breakout and no immediate catalysts....
2025-08-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend continues with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD divergence, and breakout momentum targeting resistance at 196-201 amid supportive trade deal sentiment and no near-term catalysts....
2025-08-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as the uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, positive MACD momentum, and recent breakout above prior resistance levels signaling potential for further upside to 196-201 amid strong volume and no immediate catalysts....
2025-08-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent support at 172.66 holding firm, and positive MACD crossover signaling potential upside to resistance near 196 despite minor pullback from entry....
2025-08-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both after positive post-earnings reaction despite negative tariff news, with support at 172 holding and potential to test resistance near 196....
2025-08-07 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA after recent earnings release, despite negative Q1 results showing 37% profit drop and slashed forecasts due to US tariffs, as technicals prioritize over fundamentals with support at 172 holding firm....
2025-08-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as price rebounds above key supports at 172-159 with uptrend confirmed by EMA over SMA and price above both, bolstered by Toyota's raised 2025 production target to 10 million vehicles and strong H1 sales amid hybrid demand, despite pullback from entry....
2025-08-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as minimum hold period not fully met, price remains above key supports around $172-159 and recent capitulation lows, supported by Toyota's upward revised 2025 production target to 10 million vehicles and record H1 sales amid strong hybrid demand....
2025-08-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as minimum hold period not met, price above supports and capitulation low in unclear trend, bolstered by Toyota's record H1 2025 sales and hybrid demand surge....
2025-08-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as minimum hold period not met, price above key supports and recent capitulation low in unclear trend, supported by positive sales news....
2025-07-31 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long through today's earnings supported by Toyota's record first-half 2025 sales and production figures, with price above key supports in an unclear trend and no recent capitulation breakdown....
2025-07-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long as recent record sales news supports upside through July 31 earnings, with price above key supports in an unclear trend showing no capitulation breakdown....
2025-07-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as the US-Japan trade deal's positive impact on tariffs continues to support upside potential, with pullback to $184 appearing as a dip in an unclear but non-downtrending market ahead of July 31 earnings expected to highlight strong fundamentals like EV sales growth....
2025-07-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as the recent breakout on favorable US-Japan trade deal remains intact despite pullback, with positive news on production expansion and electrification boosting sentiment, and upcoming earnings on July 31, 2025 likely to support upside amid minimum hold requirements....
2025-07-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as the recent breakout on US-Japan trade deal remains valid with price above key EMAs and SMA despite short-term pullback, positive MACD crossover, high breakout volume, and upcoming earnings on July 31, 2025 likely boosted by tariff reductions and strong sales momentum....
2025-07-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as the breakout from US-Japan trade deal tariff reduction remains intact with positive sentiment, high volume support, and price above key levels despite minor pullback, with earnings on July 31, 2025 expected to favor upside....
2025-07-23 BUY
Summary: Entering long on strong breakout driven by US-Japan trade deal reducing tariffs, high volume surge above key levels, positive sentiment, despite unclear trend and upcoming earnings on July 31, 2025, as catalyst favors upside. ...
2025-07-22 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear downtrend without new volume capitulation, recent long trade loss, and potential earnings risk in early August invalidating setups....
2025-07-21 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation signal failed leading to a quick loss, and no clear reversal yet despite support near $168-170....
2025-07-18 SOLD
Summary: Price broke below key support at 168-170 with increasing bearish momentum in MACD and no immediate rebound, invalidating the prior volume capitulation bottom signal amid ongoing auto sector headwinds; exit long position to avoid further losses and await clearer setup....
2025-07-17 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding LONG position as TM stabilizes above key support near $168-170 with minor uptick to 170.58, maintaining potential for multi-week rebound amid strong fundamentals and EV prospects despite sluggish initial momentum....
2025-07-16 BUY
Summary: Price at support near $168-170 with volume capitulation signaling potential bottom, favorable risk/reward for multi-week rebound amid Toyotas strong fundamentals and EV growth prospects despite recent downtrend....