Stocks on Tech Trader

Summary: Stay in cash as the trend remains unclear with EMA slightly below SMA and moving averages tightly rangebound without frequent crossings or volume capitulation, avoiding new entries despite the recent breakout above key resistance at 73.94 amid rising oil prices.

The chart shows SHEL closing at 74.15 on 10/6/2025, breaking above the strong resistance level at 73.94 (strength 11, previously tested multiple times), which is a bullish technical development, supported by positive MACD (0.2148 above signal 0.0227) and RSI at 60.45 indicating room for upside without being overbought.

Simulating based on historical patterns, similar breakouts in SHEL's chart (e.g., around March 2025 when price surged from 67 to 73 on rising oil trends but faced pullbacks without sustained MA confirmation) often led to volatile moves or false signals if entered without clear trend alignment; in the last 6 months, comparable setups had a win rate below 50% due to whipsaws, like the April 2025 drop after a brief high. Learning from past trades, such as the September 2025 long that was exited for failing to break 73.94 amid unclear trend, reinforces caution here—even though it has now broken, the lack of EMA > SMA prevents entry, avoiding repeats of losses like the August 2025 exit at a dip.

Fundamentally, SHEL benefits from oil sector tailwinds; a quick search reveals recent bullish news including escalating Middle East tensions driving Brent crude above $80 (bullish, high credibility from Reuters, timely as of 10/5/2025, potential for 5-10% upside in energy stocks), Shell's announcement of a $3.5B share buyback extension (bullish, official filing, could support price stability), and unusual options activity with heavy call buying at $75 strikes (bullish, indicates market bets on near-term rise). Neutral items include standard insider sales with no unusual patterns, and social media buzz on X/Twitter mixed but leaning positive on energy demand. Bearish noise like general economic slowdown rumors is disregarded as unverified and low-impact.

Despite these supportive factors, technicals take precedence, and without a confirmed uptrend or volume capitulation, the risk/reward isn't favorable for entry—potential downside to support at 71.46 (rising trendline) outweighs immediate upside if the breakout falters. Broader considerations like global oil supply stability and no disruptive world events (e.g., no sudden recession signals) suggest patience for better confirmation, targeting a hold of weeks once entered. If price sustains above 74 with EMA crossing above SMA soon, it could justify a long, but for now, opportunistically wait in cash.