Stocks on Tech Trader

Summary: Upcoming earnings on 10/28/2025 with historically negative price reactions and no qualifying positive surprise history, combined with price near falling resistance at ~131.55 in an uptrend, suggest staying in cash to sidestep potential volatility.

The chart shows NVS in a clear uptrend with EMA above SMA, both rising, and price above both without recent crosses or sideways movement, making it technically suitable for long entries on dips, but the imminent earnings date overrides this for now.

Reviewing trade history, the last exit on 10/20/2025 was precisely to avoid this earnings risk after a profitable run from $124.1, and re-entering now would contradict that caution given the short horizon before the catalyst.

No recent volume capitulation or flagged BOT signals in the past two months, so no override for buying in a potential downtrend, but the uptrend remains intact without invalidation.

Simulating based on historical patterns, similar pre-earnings periods in the data (e.g., before 7/17/2025) showed pullbacks or flat action followed by negative reactions, with win rates below 50% for longs held through without strong positives, reinforcing avoidance.

Fundamentally, Novartis has a strong pipeline with recent approvals like Fabhalta for rare diseases and positive trial data for Kisqali in breast cancer, which could be bullish long-term, but short-term earnings risk from factors like generic competition on key drugs (e.g., Entresto) looms large.

No unusual options activity or insider buys flagged in recent filings that would tip conviction higher, and social media buzz is neutral without major rumors.

Other catalysts: No major events beyond earnings in the next 3 days; next potential is typical pharma conferences, but nothing immediate.

Overall, the risk/reward skews poor for a new long entry requiring a 10-14 day hold, as we'd likely need to exit before or hold through uncertain earnings, so cash preserves capital for post-earnings clarity.