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NVDA on Tech Trader

Tech Trader + Grok

(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

NVDA on Tech Trader + Grok

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-09-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend remains intact despite minor EMA/SMA cross with price above both, holding the existing long from 177.17 above recent capitulation low of 173.14 and targeting resistance at 184, supported by strong AI chip demand and no catalysts within 3 days.

The chart shows NVDA in a broader uptrend since the April lows, with the recent pullback to 174.65 testing but holding above the rising support trendline around 169 and the August capitulation low at 173.14, avoiding invalidation as price hasn't closed below it for 5 consecutive bars. Technicals are mixed but not bearish: RSI at 50 is neutral, MACD remains positive though weakening, and Stochastic shows room for upside without overbought conditions. Volume today was lower, suggesting the dip lacks conviction selling, consistent with past patterns where NVDA bounced from similar supports in uptrends, like the rebounds in May-June after oversold dips.

Fundamentally, NVDA's dominance in AI accelerators continues, with recent reports highlighting sustained demand from data centers and cloud providers; for instance, a quick search reveals ongoing partnerships and orders for Blackwell chips, classified as bullish due to credible analyst updates from the past week predicting revenue growth, potentially driving price toward 184 resistance. No bearish news like regulatory hurdles or supply issues emerged in recent searches on X or web sources—rumors of competition from AMD are neutral, as they've not materially impacted NVDA's market share historically. Unusual options activity shows heavy call buying at strikes above 180, indicating bullish sentiment, while insider filings are quiet, with no major sells.

Trade history review: Similar long entries after capitulations, like January and February, yielded gains when held through pullbacks without breaking lows, unlike the March loss from invalidation; simulating here, past setups with price above MAs and above support had over 60% win rate, supporting holding rather than early exit, especially since minimum hold period isn't met yet. No upcoming earnings until estimated late November 2025 (based on quarterly cycle from August 27, 2025), and no other catalysts like product launches in the next 3 days per searches. Overall, risk/reward favors holding long for a rebound to 184, with stop below 173.14 if sustained.
2025-09-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA slightly above SMA and price above both supports holding the existing long from 177.17, with rebound from recent capitulation and targeting resistance at 184 amid ongoing AI demand strength and no imminent catalysts....
2025-09-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both supports holding the recent long entry at 177.17 near support after rebound from capitulation low, targeting resistance around 184 amid positive AI sector momentum and no imminent catalysts....
2025-09-11 BUY
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both allows buying this dip near support after recent recovery above prior lows, targeting resistance around 184 over the next few weeks, justified by quick rebound and positive AI demand news outweighing short-term volatility....
2025-09-10 CASH
Summary: Clear uptrend is present but trend signals are unclear due to tightly rangebound EMA and SMA with no high-confidence setup for entry, staying in cash post recent long exit to await better opportunities targeting resistance near 184 over weeks....
2025-09-09 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but price below both, no fresh volume capitulation for a long entry, and recent long exit on invalidation advises caution against quick re-entry without stronger signals....
2025-09-08 SOLD
Summary: Exiting the long position from $180.17 as price has now sustained below the 8/29/2025 capitulation low of $173.14 for 5 consecutive bars, invalidating the prior reversal signal, while the chart shows weakening momentum with closes below both EMA and SMA amid a multi-day pullback, meeting the minimum hold after 11 calendar days and targeting a exit near recent support to lock in the position without chasing further downside....
2025-09-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA continues, existing long from 180.17 held as minimum 10-14 day period unmet, drop below 8/29 capitulation low of 173.14 not yet sustained 5+ bars (only 4 so far), targeting 184-190 resistance amid pullback without imminent catalysts....
2025-09-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA persists but price temporarily below both after pullback, existing long from 180.17 remains valid as drop below 8/29 capitulation low of 173.14 isn't sustained for 5+ bars yet (only 3 so far), holding through this dip targeting 184-190 resistance with minimum hold period not met and no imminent catalysts. Price closed at 170.98 after testing lows around 169.41, but this pullback follows a lower-conviction volume capitulation on 8/29 at 174.18 (with low of 173.14), and the drop hasn't sustained below that level for 5 consecutive bars—only 9/2, 9/3, and 9/4 qualify so far, so the reversal potential remains intact for now. Support levels are noted at 161.61 (stronger with recent bounces) and 138.83, both well below current price, suggesting room before major breakdowns, while resistance targets around 184-190 match prior highs from August....
2025-09-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA continues, existing long from 180.17 remains valid as price drop below 8/29 capitulation low of 173.14 isn't sustained for 5+ bars yet, holding through this pullback targeting 184-190 resistance with no imminent catalysts found....
2025-09-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA persists despite price dipping below both temporarily, existing long position from 180.17 not invalidated as drop below capitulation low at 173.14 on 8/29 isn't sustained for 5+ bars, holding through this pullback targeting 184-190 resistance amid no imminent catalysts....
2025-08-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend remains with EMA above SMA, price dipped to support at 174 with volume capitulation "!" signaling potential bottom, holding long from 180.17 targeting 184-190 as post-earnings pullback resumes per historical NVDA patterns....
2025-08-28 BUY
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, entering long on this post-earnings hammer bottom pullback near rising support at 174, targeting resistance around 184-190 over the next few weeks, as historical patterns show NVDA often resumes uptrends after neutral earnings with strong technicals....
2025-08-27 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to earnings report today, confirmed uptrend but price near resistance without a clear dip for entry, avoiding positions around high-volatility events per historical patterns....
2025-08-26 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to confirmed uptrend but impending earnings on 8/27/2025 without criteria met to hold through, avoiding entry right before to prevent volatility risk while awaiting post-earnings clarity for a potential dip buy in the ongoing uptrend....
2025-08-25 CASH
Summary: Clear uptrend confirmed with EMA above SMA and price above both, but staying in cash due to imminent earnings on 8/27/2025 and price near falling resistance at 181.91, avoiding entry right before catalyst with no hold-through criteria met....
2025-08-22 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to confirmed uptrend but upcoming earnings on 8/27/2025 preventing new long entry, as historical data doesn't meet hold-through criteria and minimum hold would require holding through it, with no other catalysts found....
2025-08-21 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the uptrend persists but entering a new long now would require holding through upcoming earnings on 8/27/2025 without meeting hold-through criteria, and we just exited a position yesterday to avoid that volatility....
2025-08-20 SOLD
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, but exiting the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 174.66 after a hammer bottom, securing small gains ahead of earnings on 8/27/2025 since historical surprises and reactions don't meet hold-through criteria, no other imminent catalysts found....
2025-08-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 176.32 above key supports without reversal, targeting resistance near 185-187 or exit before earnings on 8/27/2025....
2025-08-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long position from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 182.23 near recent highs without reversal signals, targeting exit near resistance at 185-187 or before earnings on August 27, 2025....
2025-08-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 180.02 near recent highs with no reversal signals, planning exit near resistance around 185 or before earnings on August 27, 2025....
2025-08-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 181.94 with strong momentum, no reversal signals, planning exit near resistance or before earnings on August 27, 2025....
2025-08-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 181.44 with RSI at 65.4 showing continued strength near BB upper band, no reversal signals amid AI sector momentum, planning exit before earnings on August 27, 2025....
2025-08-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 182.61 near BB upper band with RSI at 68.9 showing strength, supported by AI demand and no reversal signals, next earnings on August 27, 2025....
2025-08-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 182.22 near recent highs with RSI at 68.6 showing strength but not extreme overbought, supported by ongoing AI chip demand momentum and no immediate reversal signals, with next earnings on August 27, 2025....
2025-08-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 182.78 near all-time highs with RSI at 70 indicating overbought but no reversal, supported by bullish analyst targets to $227.95, strong AI demand sentiment on X, and upcoming earnings on August 27, 2025....
2025-08-07 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA closes at 180.16 near recent highs amid bullish analyst predictions to $220, strong AI demand news, positive X sentiment, and no reversal signals with RSI at 67....
2025-08-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA pushes to 179.74 amid positive analyst forecasts to $220, strong AI demand news, bullish X sentiment, and no reversal signals with RSI at 66....
2025-08-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA hits 180 highs amid bullish analyst targets to $220, strong AI demand forecasts, positive sentiment on X, and no reversal signals despite RSI at 66....
2025-08-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA surges to new highs at 180 amid bullish analyst targets up to $220, strong AI demand news, positive X sentiment, and no signs of reversal despite overbought RSI at 68.6....
2025-08-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA bounces from rising support at 170.89 amid analyst targets up to $200, strong AI capex news from Microsoft and Meta, bullish X sentiment, and no reversal despite minor pullback....
2025-07-31 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as NVDA hits new highs near 178 amid raised analyst targets to $200, strong AI demand, bullish options flow, and no reversal signals despite overbought RSI....
2025-07-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as price breaks to new highs near 177 amid bullish analyst targets up to $200 and strong AI demand forecasts, with no reversal signals despite CEO insider sales....
2025-07-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as price tests but holds above recent support around 171-173 amid bullish analyst forecasts and no trend reversal signals....
2025-07-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: Clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the existing long from 7/21 at 171.38 as price approaches target resistance near 177-180 without reaching it yet, supported by positive AI news and sentiment, with no earnings or catalysts in the next 3 days....
2025-07-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: The NVDA daily chart maintains a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD and STO, no volume capitulation, supportive rising trendlines, and continued AI demand fundamentals driving bullish momentum without immediate catalysts to disrupt....
2025-07-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: The NVDA chart maintains a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD, high RSI/STO indicating sustained momentum, supported by bullish analyst targets up to $200 and AI demand news, holding the long position from $164.07....
2025-07-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: NVDA remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive AI news like xAI GPU orders and analyst upgrades, and no immediate catalysts to exit the position entered 7 bars ago at $164.07....
2025-07-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: The NVDA daily chart maintains a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by positive MACD, high RSI without divergence, recent bullish news from TSMC on AI demand, and no immediate earnings risk, justifying holding the long position entered at $164.07 for further upside potential over the next few weeks....
2025-07-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: NVDA's daily chart continues its strong bullish uptrend with rising closes, positive MACD crossover, overbought but sustained RSI near 78, supportive trendlines, and NVIDIA's AI dominance amid high demand, justifying holding the long position entered at $164.07 four bars ago....
2025-07-17 HOLD LONG
Summary: The NVDA daily chart continues its strong bullish uptrend from the April 2025 low, with rising prices breaking recent highs, positive MACD crossover, overbought but sustained RSI/STO, supportive EMAs and trendlines, and NVIDIA's AI dominance amid high demand supporting further upside despite overbought signals....
2025-07-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG as NVDA's daily chart shows sustained bullish momentum with rising prices, positive MACD crossover, overbought but resilient RSI/STO, supportive trendlines, and strong AI demand fundamentals driving potential for further upside....
2025-07-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Resizing position: current 607 @ $164.07 ($99,590), expected 609, Buy 2 ($328)
2025-07-14 BUY
Summary: The NVDA daily chart shows a strong bullish uptrend since the April 2025 bottom, with positive MACD, overbought but sustained RSI and STO indicators, rising EMAs, supportive trendlines, and NVIDIAs fundamental strength in AI demand supporting continued upside momentum.