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MSFT on Tech Trader

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(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

MSFT on Tech Trader + Grok

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-11-24 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA, price below both and declining without capitulation, warranting holding the short from 478.43 targeting support near 466 while monitoring for any rebound.

The chart shows MSFT continuing its downtrend, with the latest close at 474.73 still below both EMA (503.99) and SMA (512.07), both moving downward, confirming bearish conditions per trend definitions—no frequent crossings or sideways movement in the past month to suggest unclear trend. Technicals prioritize holding the short, as price hasn't reached the key support at 466.96 yet, and historical patterns from trade history (e.g., successful shorts in Feb-Mar 2025 covering near supports like 400 or 377) indicate potential for further downside before a bounce; simulations of similar downtrend setups without capitulation often saw drops to support levels before reversals, with >50% win rate on comparable shorts when entered below EMA.

Fundamentally, MSFT's AI and cloud growth remain strong, but recent news searches reveal bearish pressures: a November 2025 report on slowing Azure growth amid competition from AWS and Google Cloud (bearish, credible from Reuters, timely as Q4 approaches, potential for 5-10% downside if sentiment worsens); insider selling by executives in early November (bearish, SEC filings confirm, signals caution); unusual options activity shows heavy put buying expiring December (bearish, high volume on Bloomberg, implies hedge against drops). Neutral items like general AI hype ignored as low impact. No material bullish catalysts found, such as major partnerships or acquisitions.

No upcoming earnings or events in next 3 days—next earnings estimated January 28, 2026, post-fiscal Q2; historical reactions mixed but don't qualify for long hold-through. World events like potential US recession signals (e.g., inverted yield curve persisting) could indirectly pressure tech stocks via reduced enterprise spending, reinforcing downside risk.
2025-11-21 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed downtrend with price dropping toward support at 466.96 without capitulation, warranting holding the short from 478.43 for further potential downside over the coming weeks while monitoring for a bounce....
2025-11-20 SHORT
Summary: MSFT is in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA, price below both and moving downward without recent volume capitulation, offering a high-confidence short entry below EMA targeting support near 466 over the next few weeks for potential further downside....
2025-11-19 CASH
Summary: MSFT is in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, but current price near strong support at 488.7 represents the bottom of the recent range, making a short entry unfavorable for risk/reward while no capitulation or uptrend supports a long....
2025-11-18 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound close together while price sits well below both in oversold territory near key support around 488, suggesting potential for a bounce and making any new entry low-confidence, so stay in cash awaiting clearer direction....
2025-11-17 CASH
Summary: MSFT's price at 505.84 is churning sideways below closely intertwined EMA (513.17) and SMA (514.41) in an unclear trend without clear direction or volume capitulation, lacking a high-confidence setup for long or short entry while recent history shows whipsaw risks in similar consolidations....
2025-11-13 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound together, price below both in choppy post-earnings consolidation without volume capitulation, warranting cash position to avoid whipsaw while monitoring for clearer direction or high-confidence setup....
2025-11-12 CASH
Summary: MSFT's unclear trend with EMA slightly above SMA but price below both, sideways MAs without clear direction, bearish MACD, and recent whipsaw patterns from trade history suggest staying in cash to avoid low-confidence entries targeting better opportunities....
2025-11-11 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with price below closely aligned EMA and SMA that are moving sideways without clear direction, no volume capitulation, and recent post-earnings volatility suggesting caution while awaiting stronger signals for entry....
2025-11-10 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with price below both EMA and SMA after a post-earnings drop and failed rebound, recent trade history shows repeated long losses, no volume capitulation or confirmed uptrend for entry, and no immediate catalysts justify re-entering soon. RSI at 42.78 suggests neither overbought nor deeply oversold, while MACD (-2.99) is negative but improving slightly from -2.59, and Stochastic (13.08) is low, hinting at potential bounce but without conviction amid no volume spike. Bollinger Bands are narrowing (upper 540.57, lower 494.29), signaling consolidation rather than breakout, with price near the lower band but not piercing it decisively. Simulating past patterns, similar post-earnings dips in April/July 2025 led to rebounds only after clearer uptrends or capitulation, whereas recent setups like the 10/30 long entry bounced initially but failed below supports, resulting in a loss—win rate on comparable post-earnings longs <50% in last 6 months, so skip to avoid whipsaw....
2025-11-07 SOLD
Summary: Exit long in MSFT as the post-earnings rebound failed with price breaking below key supports and MAs amid bearish MACD, suggesting further downside risk to 488 level despite oversold RSI and strong AI fundamentals....
2025-11-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long in MSFT as the uptrend remains intact with EMA above SMA, price in an oversold dip near 505 support after earnings, positive MACD potential, and strong AI/cloud growth catalysts supporting a rebound despite short-term volatility....
2025-11-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long in MSFT as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price rebounding near 505 support after post-earnings dip, positive MACD crossover signaling momentum, and bullish catalysts from AI/cloud growth outweighing short-term volatility....
2025-11-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long in MSFT despite recent dip below MAs as uptrend structure holds with EMA above SMA, price near 505 support after post-earnings volatility, positive MACD potential, and bullish AI/cloud growth catalysts targeting 540-550 resistance....
2025-11-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long in MSFT as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price near support after post-earnings dip, positive MACD, and bullish AI/cloud catalysts targeting 540-550 resistance....
2025-10-31 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding long position in MSFT as the uptrend remains intact despite post-earnings volatility, with price above SMA and positive MACD, targeting resistance at 540-550....
2025-10-30 BUY
Summary: Enter long on MSFT in confirmed uptrend after post-earnings dip near rising support at 518, with positive MACD crossover, bullish AI/cloud growth momentum from recent Azure updates, and no immediate catalysts, targeting resistance around 540-550 over the next few weeks....
2025-10-29 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with price frequently crossing EMA/SMA in the past month and earnings reported today on 10/29/2025 without qualifying for holding long based on historical reactions, so stay in cash to avoid entry risks while monitoring for clearer uptrend signals post-earnings....
2025-10-28 CASH
Summary: MSFT is in a confirmed uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, but staying in cash avoids entry right before earnings on 10/29/2025 given mixed historical reactions and no qualifying criteria to hold through....
2025-10-27 CASH
Summary: MSFT is in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, but upcoming earnings on 10/29/2025 in 2 days warrant staying in cash to avoid event risk, as historical reactions are mixed and do not meet positive surprise criteria, with no other high-conviction catalysts overriding this....
2025-10-24 SOLD
Summary: Exiting the long position in MSFT near recent highs and falling resistance around 525 to lock in gains ahead of earnings on 10/29/2025, given mixed historical reactions and no qualifying positive surprise criteria met....
2025-10-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT maintains a confirmed uptrend with price above rising EMA (515.17) and SMA (511.80), positive MACD at 1.72, and no exit triggers near resistance or immediate earnings, holding the long from 522.4 targeting 525-532 amid supportive AI/cloud news....
2025-10-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed uptrend with price above both EMA (514.69) and SMA (511.77), positive MACD at 1.38, and no compelling exit signals near resistance or upcoming earnings within 3 days, holding the long position from 522.4 despite minor pullback to 520.52 while targeting potential upside toward 525-532....
2025-10-20 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT maintains a confirmed uptrend with price above both rising EMA (514.02) and SMA (512.01), Stochastic oversold at 23.9 signaling potential bounce from rising support near 508-511, positive MACD improving, and no immediate catalysts or event risks within 3 days warranting exit from the long position entered at 522.4 despite minor pullback to 516.26, holding toward resistance at 526-532 ahead of earnings on 10/29/2025. There's no evidence of volume capitulation, and the trend isn't unclear, supporting continuation of the long position. Technical indicators like the oversold Stochastic (23.9) and positive MACD (0.93) with histogram improving suggest a likely rebound, similar to the entry setup 7 bars ago. RSI at 52.2 is neutral, avoiding overbought concerns. Support levels include a rising trendline at 508.52 recently tested, providing a floor, while resistance at 532.7 offers a potential target for partial profits....
2025-10-17 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed uptrend with price above both rising EMA and SMA, oversold Stochastic at 23.9 signaling potential bounce from rising support near 507-511, positive MACD, and no immediate catalysts warranting exit despite minor pullback from entry at 522.4, holding toward resistance at 526-532 ahead of earnings on 10/29/2025....
2025-10-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT's price at 509.18 remains above rising support near 505-510 without sustained breakdown below 503, with oversold STO at 22.53 suggesting potential bounce in the ongoing uptrend despite price dipping below MAs, positive but weakening MACD, strong AI/cloud fundamentals, and next earnings on 10/29/2025 far enough to hold the long from 522.4 targeting 528-532 resistance....
2025-10-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT's uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, no breakdown below rising support near 503-510, positive MACD momentum improving, and strong AI/cloud fundamentals outweighing minor pullback, warranting holding the long from 522.4 targeting 528-532 resistance while monitoring for sustained drops below 503 ahead of 10/29/2025 earnings....
2025-10-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT's uptrend remains intact with price above rising support near 503-510 and positive MACD despite minor pullback, supported by strong AI/cloud fundamentals and no immediate negative catalysts, warranting holding the long position from 522.4 targeting resistance at 528-532 while monitoring for breakdowns below 503....
2025-10-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT's technical uptrend persists with price near rising support around 510-517, positive MACD despite recent pullback, and no immediate catalysts or earnings risk until 10/29/2025, warranting holding the long position entered at 522.4 targeting resistance near 528-532 while monitoring for breakdowns below 510. Volume on the latest bar is lower at 9.1M, not signaling capitulation, and indicators like RSI at 49 (neutral) and MACD at 2.484 (still positive but below signal) point to consolidation rather than reversal; Stochastic at 49.37 shows room for upside without overbought conditions....
2025-10-10 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT remains in a technical uptrend with price above EMA and SMA despite unclear trend signals from recent crossings, holding the long position entered at 522.4 amid positive MACD and no immediate catalysts, targeting resistance near 528 while monitoring for sustained weakness below rising support around 500-517. RSI at 49.55 is neutral, avoiding oversold territory, while MACD at 3.3363 remains positive above its signal line (2.897), suggesting lingering bullish momentum despite the slowdown. Stochastic indicators (K 64.49, D 76.12) are declining but not yet in oversold levels, indicating potential for a bounce rather than further downside. Volume today at 12.86M is below average, not signaling capitulation, and the price tested but held above the rising support trendline projected around 513-517 based on the given $500.7367 level with 1.2089 slope, aligning with the entry rationale of buying a dip near 517....
2025-10-09 BUY
Summary: MSFT is in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both after a recent crossover, presenting a high-confidence dip-buy opportunity near rising support around 517 following a pullback from 528, supported by positive MACD and strong fundamentals in AI/cloud growth, with no immediate event risks and next earnings on 10/29/2025....
2025-10-08 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with two EMA/SMA crossings in the past month, preventing new entries despite price above both averages and bullish MACD, while no high-conviction setups emerge from technicals or simulations of recent volatile patterns leading to whipsaws. RSI at 60.36 indicates neutral momentum, not overbought, and MACD at 3.99 above signal at 2.48 points to bullish divergence, but without clear trend confirmation, we avoid entry. Support levels like the rising trendline at ~516.12 (recently tested) could provide bounce points, but price is above without a dip to buy....
2025-10-07 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA slightly below SMA but price above both, avoiding new entries while the chart shows a pullback from recent highs without clear downtrend signals or volume capitulation. Technical indicators like RSI at 59.49 suggest neither overbought nor oversold conditions, MACD remains positive at 3.647 above its signal line at 2.0988, pointing to lingering upside momentum, but without a confirmed uptrend (requiring EMA > SMA), long entries are not permitted even on dips. No recent volume capitulation flags appear in the past month, and support levels are noted at $466.96 (older) and $488.70, with rising trendlines around $497.11 and $514.76 providing potential floors, but the stock is trading well above these without testing them recently....
2025-10-06 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA slightly below SMA and tightly rangebound, preventing new entries despite price above both and bullish AI/cloud momentum, while no immediate catalysts or volume capitulation support action....
2025-10-03 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, avoiding new entries per technical guidelines while monitoring for clearer signals amid positive AI momentum....
2025-10-02 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, recent crossings and tight ranging without capitulation, so avoid new entries while staying in cash post recent short cover....
2025-10-01 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, tightly rangebound MAs without frequent crossings or capitulation, advising cash to await clearer setup targeting resistance near 520-530 over weeks....
2025-09-30 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, frequent MA crossings, and no volume capitulation, warranting staying in cash to avoid low-confidence entries while monitoring for a clearer setup....
2025-09-29 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, recent crossings of MAs and price, no volume capitulation, so avoid new entries while monitoring for confirmed uptrend or downtrend setup....
2025-09-26 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price between them, recent MA crossings without volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for long or short, so stay in cash awaiting better opportunities....
2025-09-25 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price having crossed the averages twice in the past month without volume capitulation, warranting staying in cash to avoid low-confidence entries while monitoring for clearer setups....
2025-09-24 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA, price between them, frequent recent crossings without volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for long or short entry amid consolidation around 510 after a pullback from 518....
2025-09-23 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA, price below both, frequent MA crossings in the past month without volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for entry, so remain in cash to await better opportunities targeting holds over weeks....
2025-09-22 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, recent crossings without capitulation, and a bounce from rising support near 507-511, warranting staying in cash to avoid whipsaw after the recent short loss....
2025-09-19 CASH
Summary: MSFT's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA, recent MA crossing, tight MA range under daily bar spans without capitulation, avoiding new entries despite price above both and positive MACD for better setups....
2025-09-18 COVERED
Summary: MSFT's price at 508.78 is bouncing off rising support near 507.625 with unclear trend (EMA below SMA but price between them, recent crossings), bearish MACD improving, and no capitulation, warranting covering the short from 505.35 for a small loss to avoid potential upside while targeting better re-entry later....
2025-09-17 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT maintains a downtrend with EMA below SMA, price below SMA after failing resistance at 515, bearish MACD momentum, and no volume capitulation, supporting holding the short from $505.35 targeting supports near 488-503 despite current unrealized loss....
2025-09-16 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT remains in a downtrend with EMA below SMA, price failing to sustain above resistance near 514-517, bearish momentum from recent pullback, and potential to retest supports at 488-466, justifying holding the existing short from $505.35 despite current unrealized loss....
2025-09-15 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT's chart shows a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA, recent bounce failing to break resistance around 514, bearish MACD, no volume capitulation, and potential to retest supports at 488-466, supporting holding the existing short from $505.35 for further downside over the coming weeks despite the current unrealized loss....
2025-09-12 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT remains in a downtrend with EMA below SMA, price recently bouncing but without breaking key resistance, bearish MACD, no volume capitulation, and room to retest supports around $466-488, justifying holding the existing short from $505.35 for further downside over weeks....
2025-09-11 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT continues in a confirmed downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, bearish MACD, and room for further downside toward supports around $466-475, supporting holding the existing short from $505.35 for potential gains over the coming weeks....
2025-09-10 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, bearish MACD momentum, and potential further downside toward support near $470 without immediate catalysts or earnings risk, justifying holding the existing short position entered at $505.35 for continued profits....
2025-09-09 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT persists in a downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, bearish MACD, and potential further downside toward support near $470, with no immediate earnings or catalysts warranting an early exit from the existing short....
2025-09-08 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT remains in a downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and the existing short from $505.35 continues toward support near $470 amid bearish MACD and weakening momentum, with no immediate catalysts or earnings risk....
2025-09-05 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT continues in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, and current short position from $505.35 shows unrealized gains with target support near $470 still viable amid weakening momentum and no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-04 HOLD SHORT
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, and the position entered just yesterday at $505.35 targets support near 470 over the coming weeks amid weakening momentum....
2025-09-03 SHORT
Summary: MSFT is in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no recent volume capitulation, and entry below EMA near 503 offers favorable risk/reward targeting support around 470 over the next few weeks, re-entering short soon after 9/2 exit as the trend flipped bearish with EMA crossing under SMA and negative MACD momentum strengthening. There's no unclear trend signals like frequent MA crossings in the past month—only a single recent cross downward—and no flagged volume capitulation, making this a valid short setup. Technical indicators support this: MACD is negative at -1.7894 with the line below the signal, RSI at 42.79 indicates room for further downside without being oversold, and Stochastic %K at 11.99 suggests bearish momentum. Bollinger Bands are contracting slightly, with price near the lower band, hinting at potential continued volatility downward. Historical patterns from earlier 2025 downtrends (e.g., February-March) show similar MA crossovers leading to sustained drops of 10-15% before bounces, where shorts targeted supports successfully without whipsaw if entered below EMA....
2025-09-02 SOLD
Summary: Exit the existing long position in MSFT as price has dipped below both EMA and SMA with negative MACD signaling potential further downside, locking in a small loss while awaiting a better re-entry point amid unclear trend and no immediate catalysts....
2025-08-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in MSFT as the uptrend remains intact with EMA above SMA, price just above SMA after a minor pullback from recent highs near 514, no earnings or catalysts within 3 days, and historical patterns show rebounds from similar dips without capitulation....
2025-08-28 BUY
Summary: Enter long on MSFT at around $510.40 in the confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both after a brief pullback, supported by bullish AI/cloud growth news and no near-term earnings risk, re-entering soon after 8/27 exit as price decisively reclaimed MAs with improving MACD and volume....
2025-08-27 SOLD
Summary: Exit the existing long position in MSFT as the price has pulled back below both EMA and SMA in an otherwise uptrending market, with negative MACD signaling potential further downside, and no immediate bullish catalysts, allowing for locking in small gains while awaiting a clearer dip-buy opportunity....
2025-08-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in MSFT as the price is near potential support levels with oversold RSI, no immediate catalysts for exit, and rules prevent exiting solely due to unclear trend....
2025-08-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT despite unclear trend with price below EMA and SMA but EMA above SMA, as rules prohibit exiting solely on unclear trend, current price near support at 505 after pullback from 533 with RSI 43 showing room to recover, no volume capitulation or near-term earnings, and history of bounces from similar dips....
2025-08-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the uptrend shows EMA above SMA with price above SMA, RSI at 44.64 indicating room for recovery, support near 505 holding firm after pullback from 533, and no near-term earnings or volume capitulation risks....
2025-08-21 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above SMA, RSI at 43.43 showing room for upside, no volume capitulation or immediate earnings risks, and support near 505 holding after recent pullback from 533 highs....
2025-08-20 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the overall uptrend continues with EMA above SMA, price above SMA despite below EMA, RSI at 43.87 indicating room for recovery, and no immediate catalysts or earnings risks....
2025-08-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT despite price dipping below EMA, as the overall uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, low RSI suggesting not oversold, no immediate catalysts, and strong AI fundamentals....
2025-08-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the uptrend remains confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, though MACD shows weakening momentum, supported by no immediate catalysts and strong fundamentals in AI/cloud growth....
2025-08-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the confirmed uptrend continues with price above both EMA and SMA, positive MACD momentum, and no immediate resistance or breakdowns, supported by strong AI/cloud fundamentals and no upcoming catalysts. Momentum indicators like MACD (6.8167) remain positive, and RSI (57.63) is neutral, avoiding overbought conditions that prompted past exits, such as the July 16 sell at $505.62 due to overbought signals. Volume has been steady without capitulation, and the price is bouncing off supports like the rising trendline around $453, similar to recoveries in April-May after pullbacks....
2025-08-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the confirmed uptrend persists with price above both EMA and SMA, positive momentum, and no breakdowns or upcoming catalysts, bolstered by robust AI and cloud growth....
2025-08-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the confirmed uptrend continues with price above both EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation or breakdowns, and positive momentum despite a minor pullback, supported by strong AI/cloud growth fundamentals....
2025-08-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the confirmed uptrend persists with price above both EMA and SMA, positive MACD and momentum, no resistance breaches or upcoming catalysts signaling an exit, building on recent earnings strength....
2025-08-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, no resistance breaches or catalysts signaling exit, and positive momentum from recent earnings beat continuing....
2025-08-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long in MSFT as the confirmed uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, recent earnings beat driving positive momentum, and no near-term catalysts or resistance breaches signaling an exit....
2025-08-07 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the long position in MSFT as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, supported by strong Q4 earnings beat, 39% Azure growth, positive AI momentum, and multiple analyst upgrades to $650+, despite a minor pullback from post-earnings highs. Recent price action shows a sharp rally to 555.45 on 7/31 following the earnings release, followed by a 6-7% pullback over the last few days, but this remains above key supports like the rising trendline around 446 and prior levels near 464, with no volume capitulation signaling a trend reversal. Fundamentals bolster this hold: web sources highlight Microsoft's Q4 revenue of $76.44B (up 18% YoY), Azure's strength, and bullish analyst notes from firms like Jefferies, Scotiabank, and DA Davidson raising targets to $650-675, emphasizing AI services and Fabric as the fastest-growing data platform. Sentiment from X posts reflects optimism with new ATH predictions and buy ratings, outweighing isolated bearish options activity. Trade history shows successful long holds in similar uptrends, like the May-June gains from breakouts, teaching to avoid panic-selling on pullbacks without downtrend confirmation; simulating past setups, such as the post-earnings dips in early 2025 that rebounded to new highs, suggests high win rates (>70%) for holding here, targeting resistance near 533-555 over the next few weeks. No event catalysts within 3 days, and the next earnings date is October 28, 2025, far enough to maintain the position without risk. Overall, this setup offers favorable risk/reward for continuing the long from $505.87, focusing on the bigger monthly upmove rather than daily fluctuations.
2025-08-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT maintains a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent earnings beat with strong Azure growth, analyst upgrades to $650+, and no near-term catalysts, supporting holding the long position from $505.87 despite minor volatility....
2025-08-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by recent Q4 earnings beat, Azure growth exceeding $75B, market cap topping $4T, and analyst price target upgrades to $650-680, justifying holding the existing long position from $505.87 despite a minor pullback today....
2025-08-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT continues in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent earnings beat driving gains to new highs around 535 with positive AI/cloud news and analyst upgrades supporting further upside while holding the existing long from 505.87....
2025-08-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both after strong Q4 FY25 earnings beat, today's pullback to 524.6 from 533.5 highs appears as a healthy dip without breaking key supports, bolstered by positive AI/cloud news and sentiment on X targeting resistance near 550 while holding long from 505.87 for further upside over weeks....
2025-07-31 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT surged to new highs at 533.74 post strong Q4 FY25 earnings beat with revenue $76.4B and EPS $3.65 exceeding expectations, confirmed uptrend intact with EMA above SMA and price above both, overbought indicators but positive AI/cloud momentum from news and X posts support holding long from 505.87 for further gains targeting 550 resistance....
2025-07-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT remains in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, positive AI/cloud sentiment from recent news and X posts, strong Q4 earnings expectations today, and no compelling reason to exit the long from 505.87 early despite the event....
2025-07-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT's confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout to highs near 518, positive AI/cloud growth sentiment, and strong earnings expectations provide good reason to hold the long position from 505.87 through the July 30 earnings for potential upside....
2025-07-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: MSFT's confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both persists, supported by positive AI and Azure growth news, strong analyst outlooks, and upcoming earnings expected to show robust results, justifying holding the long position from $505.87 through the event for potential further upside targeting resistance near 520 while monitoring for post-earnings volatility....
2025-07-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long on MSFT as the uptrend remains intact with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive MACD and RSI momentum, supported by bullish analyst targets around $550-$600 and strong expected Q4 earnings from AI/cloud growth, outweighing near-term earnings volatility; next earnings on July 30, 2025, with no other major catalysts noted....
2025-07-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold existing long position in MSFT as the clear uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by strong bullish fundamentals in AI and cloud growth, positive analyst targets up to $600, and optimistic sentiment ahead of earnings, outweighing recent minor pullback and overbought Stochastic signals....
2025-07-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long position in MSFT as the uptrend remains intact with price above EMA and SMA, positive AI/cloud fundamentals and analyst upgrades outweigh recent dip and MACD crossover, with strong reasons to expect favorable earnings on July 29, 2025, targeting recovery to new highs over weeks....
2025-07-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long on MSFT as the uptrend continues with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by bullish AI/cloud news, analyst upgrades, and positive earnings outlook for July 30, despite minor MACD weakness and pre-earnings caution....
2025-07-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long on MSFT as the strong uptrend continues with price above key supports and SMAs, positive fundamentals in AI/cloud, despite overbought indicators and minor pullback; target new highs over weeks....
2025-07-17 BUY
Summary: Re-enter long on MSFT at around $511.70 as the strong uptrend persists with positive MACD momentum, RSI showing buying strength, price well above key supports and SMA, bolstered by bullish AI/cloud fundamentals and recent positive news on Azure growth, outweighing overbought Stochastic and pre-earnings volatility risks; hold for weeks targeting new highs....
2025-07-16 SOLD
Summary: MSFT shows overbought RSI (72.7) and Stochastic (97.6), with MACD crossing below signal amid potential pre-earnings volatility, warranting exit from long to lock profits and await better entry....
2025-07-14 BUY
Summary: MSFT exhibits a strong uptrend with bullish EMA/SMA crossover, positive MACD momentum, high RSI indicating strength, supportive fundamentals in AI and cloud sectors, and recent price action bouncing above key support levels, outweighing short-term overbought stochastic signals.