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Daily Chart

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LLY on Tech Trader

Tech Trader + Grok

(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

LLY on Tech Trader + Grok

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-09-15 CASH
Summary: Trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, recent price crossings of moving averages, and no volume capitulation, suggesting avoidance of new entries while monitoring for a confirmed uptrend or dip opportunity supported by pharma fundamentals.

Recent price action shows a modest bounce from the 727 low on 9/5, closing at 748 today after testing above 756, but without breaking key falling resistance around 773-825, indicating potential consolidation rather than a strong reversal. Technical indicators are mixed: MACD is positive at 6.90 above its signal line at 2.41, hinting at building momentum, but Slow STO is high at 88.5/92.5, risking overbought pullback, and RSI at 55 is neutral. The chart reflects a longer-term downtrend since February peaks near 920, with repeated failures to hold above SMA, echoing past fakeouts like the brief rally in late August that faded without sustained volume.

Simulating based on historical patterns, similar bounces after August's capitulation low led to 10-20% gains over weeks when followed by positive news, but without new catalysts here, setups like the July pullback to 762 (which rebounded to 812) had clearer EMA/SMA alignment and higher volume; recent analogs in May-June showed whipsaws with <50% win rate on longs entered near current levels, often reversing on low conviction. Past trades teach avoiding chases after exits, as the 9/5 sell was due to breaking support, and nothing materially changed—no fresh news or breakout—to justify quick re-entry, though price is higher now, reducing risk/reward.

Searching for news: Recent items include FDA updates on LLY's weight loss drugs (bullish, credible from official sources, timely as of last week, potential for 5-10% upside on adoption rumors); competitor Novo Nordisk trial setbacks (bullish for LLY, verified via Reuters 9/12, could shift market share but neutral short-term without direct impact); no major bearish reports. Integrated bullish factors support watching for long, but technicals don't confirm uptrend yet, overriding fundamentals per priority. No unusual options activity or insider buys flagged beyond normal; social media buzz on X is positive on obesity market growth, but unverified rumors of M&A are neutral noise.

Upcoming earnings: Expected Q3 report around October 30, 2025 (based on patterns, post-9/15).

Overall, staying in cash prioritizes high-confidence setups, eyeing long entry on dip to rising support near 710 if trend clarifies, targeting resistance at 825 for multi-week hold, while avoiding shorts on pharma volatility.
2025-09-12 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as LLY's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA, frequent crossings, and price oscillating without clear direction, lacking high-confidence setup for entry after recent exit on 9/5 at $727.21 amid bearish signals....
2025-09-11 CASH
Summary: Trend remains unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound below price without recent volume capitulation, avoiding new long entry despite positive pharma fundamentals in weight loss drugs....
2025-09-10 CASH
Summary: Trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA in a tight range without volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for re-entry shortly after recent exit on broken support. Support levels from the summary include a rising trendline at $670 with recent tests, while resistance sits at $825, suggesting the stock is in a broad range without breakout momentum. Technical indicators like RSI at 57.5 show neutral momentum, MACD improving but still negative at 4.25/-1.67, and Slow STO at 94.7/91.4 overbought, hinting at potential pullback risk rather than sustained upside....
2025-09-09 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and no volume capitulation, while recent exit on 9/5 avoids quick re-entry without stronger bullish confirmation from technicals or news....
2025-09-08 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and price between them, no new volume capitulation for entry, and recent exit on 9/5 due to broken support without compelling reversal signals yet....
2025-09-05 SOLD
Summary: Exit the existing long position in LLY as price has broken below the recent rising support trendline around $737 with a bearish engulfing candle, signaling potential further downside in an unclear trend without reaching the $825 resistance target, despite the volume capitulation bounce from 8/8/2025 remaining valid above $623.78 low....
2025-09-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in LLY as the volume capitulation bounce from 8/8/2025 remains valid with price above $623.78 low and recent rising support trendline at $737, no technical breakdown, and targeting $825 resistance amid positive pharma sector momentum and unclear but stabilizing trend....
2025-09-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in LLY as the volume capitulation bounce from 8/8/2025 remains valid with price above $623.78 low, no technical breakdown below supports, and targeting $825 resistance amid unclear trend but positive pharma catalysts....
2025-09-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in LLY as the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce remains valid with price above $623.78 low, targeting $825 resistance, amid unclear trend but no technical breakdown, with minimum hold period now satisfied since 8/20 entry at $705.44....
2025-08-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in LLY as the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce remains valid with price above $623.78 low, targeting $825 resistance, with minimum hold period approaching but not yet fully satisfied since 8/20 entry at $705.44, amid unclear trend but no technical breakdown....
2025-08-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in LLY as the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce remains valid with price above $623.78 low, targeting $825 resistance, despite unclear trend and recent volatility, with minimum hold period not yet met since 8/20 entry at $705.44....
2025-08-27 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the existing long position in LLY as the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce remains valid with price above $623.78 low targeting $825 resistance, despite unclear trend and recent pullback, with minimum hold period ongoing since 8/20 entry....
2025-08-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long position in LLY as the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce remains valid with price rebounding above $623.78 low toward $825 resistance, despite unclear trend and no immediate catalysts....
2025-08-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the long position in LLY as the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce remains valid with price still above the $623.78 low, supporting potential upside to $825 resistance over the coming weeks despite the ongoing downtrend and recent pullback to 696.42....
2025-08-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: LLY's long position remains valid from the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce, with price holding above $623.78 low and not yet reaching SMA or $825 resistance, supporting continued hold through current pullback for potential weeks-long upside to targets....
2025-08-21 HOLD LONG
Summary: LLY remains in a valid long position from the 8/8/2025 volume capitulation bounce, with price above the $623.78 low and not yet reaching SMA or resistance at $825, holding through downtrend pullback for targeted weeks-long upside....
2025-08-20 BUY
Summary: LLY shows a pullback above the recent volume capitulation low of $623.78 from 8/8/2025, still valid as price hasn't bounced to SMA yet, allowing re-entry in downtrend with positive pharma fundamentals targeting resistance near $825 for weeks-long hold....
2025-08-19 SOLD
Summary: Exit long position near falling resistance around $707 with profits from valid volume capitulation rebound at $623.78, as minimum 10-14 day hold met and targeting $750-800 not yet reached but risk of pullback in downtrend....
2025-08-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long as the volume capitulation at $623.78 low on 8/8/2025 remains valid without sustained breach below or bounce to SMA, price at $699.42 rebounding near falling resistance around $707 but minimum 10-14 day hold period from 8/8 entry unmet, targeting $750-800 range despite current downtrend....
2025-08-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long as volume capitulation from 8/8/2025 at $623.78 low remains valid with no sustained breach below or bounce to SMA yet, price rebounding to $700.29 near falling resistance at $706.79 but targeting higher $750-800 range over coming weeks while minimum hold period unmet....
2025-08-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long as volume capitulation on 8/8/2025 remains valid with no breach below $623.78 low or reach to SMA, price bouncing steadily to $682.38 amid downtrend, targeting resistance near $750-800 over next weeks while minimum hold not yet met....
2025-08-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding long position as minimum hold period not met, volume capitulation from 8/8/2025 at $625.65 remains valid with price bouncing to $658.07 without sustaining below low or reaching SMA, targeting resistance near $750-800 over weeks despite ongoing downtrend....
2025-08-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: LLY's recent volume capitulation on 8/8/2025 at $625.65 remains valid with no invalidation, as price has bounced slightly without sustaining below the low or reaching SMA, supporting continued long hold targeting $750-800 resistance over the coming weeks despite current downtrend....
2025-08-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: LLY's volume capitulation on 8/8/2025 at $625.65 signals a potential reversal, with today's bounce to $635.96 above the low and no invalidation, supporting holding the long position entered 1 bar ago targeting $750-800 resistance over weeks....
2025-08-08 BUY
Summary: LLY shows volume capitulation today at $626.26 after a sharp post-earnings drop despite strong Q2 results and raised guidance, signaling a potential reversal in the downtrend for a weeks-long hold targeting resistance near $750-800....
2025-08-07 CASH
Summary: LLY experienced a sharp selloff to 643.77 on high volume following strong Q2 2025 earnings and raised guidance, but the trend is unclear due to multiple EMA-SMA crosses in the past month, preventing new entries while fundamentals remain positive with 38% revenue growth driven by weight loss drugs....
2025-08-06 CASH
Summary: LLY is in a downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no recent volume capitulation to justify a long entry, and upcoming earnings tomorrow on August 7, 2025, prevent any new positions....
2025-08-05 CASH
Summary: Trend unclear with tightly bound EMA/SMA and price below both, upcoming earnings on August 7th pose high risk, and recent long trade loss suggests waiting for clearer uptrend confirmation above 780 for a multi-week hold targeting 800+ resistance....
2025-08-04 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with price below both EMA and SMA despite EMA slightly above SMA, and multiple price crossings of averages in the past month without volume capitulation, combined with earnings on August 7th just 3 days away, warrant staying in cash to avoid risk....
2025-08-01 CASH
Summary: LLY's trend is unclear with EMA above SMA but price below both, frequent price crossings of the averages in the past month, and upcoming Q2 earnings on August 7 prompting caution to avoid new entries despite positive fundamental news on weight loss drugs and analyst outlooks....
2025-07-31 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with price below both EMA and SMA despite EMA slightly above SMA, recent exit from long at a loss, and upcoming earnings on August 7, 2025, prompting caution for a high-confidence entry....
2025-07-30 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but price oscillating between them frequently without volume capitulation, and after recent long exit at a loss, better to wait for a confirmed uptrend or capitulation dip for re-entry targeting resistance near 810-820 over weeks....
2025-07-29 CASH
Summary: LLY's trend is unclear with EMA above SMA but price below both, no volume capitulation, and upcoming earnings on August 7, 2025, prompting staying in cash to avoid risk while awaiting clearer entry post-earnings. Positive news like Phase 3 results for Orforglipron and BMO's outperform rating highlight long-term growth in obesity and Alzheimer's, but rival Novo Nordisk's trimmed outlook contributed to today's decline. With earnings just over a week away on August 7, and no strong reason to expect favorable results outweighing volatility risks, it's prudent to sideline. Past simulation of similar setups, like the July pullback where we entered long too early and exited at a loss, reinforces patience; those instances often led to whipsaws without sustained moves. No other major event catalysts noted beyond earnings, so monitor post-report for potential dip-buy in uptrend confirmation.
2025-07-28 CASH
Summary: LLY shows an uptrend with positive fundamentals in weight loss and Alzheimer's drugs, but recent trade loss and upcoming earnings on August 7 warrant caution for a better entry post-event....
2025-07-25 CASH
Summary: LLY's trend is unclear with frequent EMA/SMA crossings and tight ranging in the past month, prompting avoidance of new entries despite positive fundamentals in weight loss drugs and upcoming Q2 earnings on August 7, 2025. Fundamentals remain strong, with recent news highlighting successful weight loss trials like eloralintide and tirzepatide showing up to 11.3% weight loss, a new study on LY4066708, and recognition as a dividend growth leader in pharma for 2025, supported by positive sentiment on X about their obesity drugs. Simulating similar setups in the past six months, such as bounces in unclear trends around April-May 2025, shows mixed results with whipsaws (e.g., drop after May 1 earnings reaction), yielding less than 50% win rate, so better to wait for a clearer uptrend confirmation or post-earnings clarity. No other major event catalysts noted in the next 3 days, but patience for a dip below our prior exit price or volume capitulation could offer a better long entry later.
2025-07-24 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend from frequent price crossings of tightly bound EMA/SMA without volume capitulation, recent trade loss prompting patience, and upcoming earnings on August 7, 2025, despite positive fundamentals in weight loss drugs. typical daily ranges of 15-30), and price has crossed them at least twice in the past month (e.g., dips below on 7/15 and 7/17) without any flagged volume capitulation, signaling potential whipsaw and advising against new entries....
2025-07-23 CASH
Summary: LLY is in an uptrend with positive news on clinical studies and expected earnings growth, but after recent exit at a loss, avoid re-entering long at a higher price and monitor for a dip near support around $767-770 for better entry....
2025-07-22 CASH
Summary: Trend unclear with price below EMA but above SMA, recent exit at loss suggests waiting for better entry despite strong fundamentals in weight loss and Alzheimer's drugs....
2025-07-21 CASH
Summary: Trend remains unclear with EMA above SMA but price below both, recent volatility without volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for entry after recent loss on long position. This setup advises against new entries to avoid whipsaw, as seen in the recent trade where we entered long at $771.75 on 7/15 expecting a bounce from 767 support but exited at a loss on 7/17 after breakdown with bearish MACD and STO. Simulating similar past patterns, like the drops in October 2024 and April 2025, shows frequent false bounces below MAs leading to further downside or ranges, with <50% win rate on longs in such unclear trends over the last 6 months—e.g., attempts near supports like 727 or 767 often resulted in breakdowns without sustained rallies unless accompanied by positive catalysts....
2025-07-18 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as LLY has not yet confirmed a bounce above 780 for re-entry after the recent loss exit, with MACD still bearish, STO declining, and price near volatile support at 767 amid mixed signals, targeting a high-confidence long setup in weeks if it holds and breaks higher....
2025-07-17 SOLD
Summary: LLY broke key support at 767 with bearish MACD crossover and declining STO, prompting exit from long position entered at 771.75 to avoid further downside amid volatility, targeting re-entry on confirmed bounce above 780 for weeks-long hold....
2025-07-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: LLY continues to hold above key support at 767 with bullish momentum as price breaks 789, positive MACD, and strong fundamentals in weight loss drugs amid recent FDA approvals, targeting 800+ for weeks-long hold....
2025-07-15 BUY
Summary: LLY holding key support at 767 with positive fundamentals in weight loss drugs; MACD near crossover but RSI neutral suggests bounce potential for weeks-long hold targeting 800+ resistance.