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Tech Trader + Grok

(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-09-30	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as JNJ is at overbought highs in the uptrend without a dip for entry, recent volume capitulation supported the bounce but price is extended near potential resistance, and upcoming earnings on 10/14/2025 add risk without meeting hold-through criteria. The chart shows JNJ closing at 185.54 on 9/30/2025 after a strong rally from the volume capitulation low of 174.21 on 9/22, confirming an uptrend with EMA (176.72) above SMA (174.96) and price well above both, but RSI at 71 indicates overbought conditions that often precede pullbacks in this stock's history. Reviewing trade history, we've had success buying dips in uptrends like the 9/10 entry at 175.79 after a pullback to support, exiting profitably at 179.71 on 9/26 near resistance with fading momentum; re-entering now would ignore that lesson by chasing highs, especially since the recent exit was just days ago and no significant dip or new catalyst justifies quick re-entry at a worse price. Simulating based on past patterns, similar overbought rallies in July-August (e.g., post-earnings run to 174.42 on 8/13) led to pullbacks to rising supports around 174-178, with win rates over 50% on dip buys but frequent whipsaws when entering at peaks; here, potential downside to supports at 174.33 or rising trendline near 177 outweighs upside, as no clear resistance break with conviction volume suggests exhaustion. Searching recent news: A report on 9/29 about JNJ's positive trial results for a new drug is bullish (credible from FDA filing, timely, potential for 5-10% upside on approval buzz), but neutral market reaction so far amid broader sector caution; another on supply chain improvements is neutral (low impact, unverified). No material bearish items. Fundamentals remain strong with healthcare demand, but technicals prioritizeâ€”uptrend is intact but not dipping for high-confidence long entry, and as a pharma stock, shorting is off-limits. No other event catalysts within 3 days; next earnings 10/14/2025. Overall, opportunistic setup lackingâ€”better to wait for a pullback to supports for favorable risk/reward.
2025-09-29	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as JNJ is in a confirmed uptrend but at the top of its recent range around 180-182 without a dip for entry, with earnings on 10/14/2025 approaching and no criteria met to hold through, avoiding re-entry soon after 9/26 exit at 179.71 since price is higher without new bullish catalysts justifying it....
2025-09-26	SOLD
Summary: Exiting long JNJ position near resistance at 179.5 after multi-week rally from 175.79 entry, with uptrend intact but overbought RSI around 60, positive MACD, and next earnings on 10/14/2025 approaching, securing profits amid no major breakdowns but potential pullback risk....
2025-09-25	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long on JNJ as the uptrend remains confirmed with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent volume capitulation at 174.21 supporting the bounce, no immediate catalysts or breakdowns, and earnings on 10/14/2025 still allowing hold until closer. Technical indicators like RSI at 54.76 (neutral, not overbought), MACD improving (0.6741 above signal), and Stochastic climbing support continued momentum, while the price is approaching resistance at 179.5 but hasn't hit it yetâ€”past simulations from similar bounces (e.g., July post-earnings rally from 155 to 169) show multi-week holds to resistance often pay off without immediate reversals....
2025-09-24	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long on JNJ due to confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent volume capitulation at 174.21 signaling a bottom with bounce to 176.47, no immediate negative catalysts, and next earnings on 10/14/2025 allowing continued multi-week hold. Technicals prioritize here, and the chart's rising support trendline around 172.8 (with positive slope and prior bounces) adds confluence for holding long, as price is above it and not testing the bottom of any range. Resistance is noted at 179.5 with moderate strength (2 bounces, recently tested), so I'll monitor for an exit near there if momentum fades, but current positioning isn't at the top, and RSI at 52.54 is neutral, avoiding overbought signals like past exits (e.g., RSI near 70 in August trades). MACD is positive at 0.6364 with the line above signal, and Slow STO shows bullish crossover potential without extreme overbought readings....
2025-09-23	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long on JNJ as the uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent volume capitulation at 174.21 signals a potential bottom with bounce to 175.98 near support, no major negative catalysts, and next earnings on 10/14/2025 allows continued hold without immediate exit pressure. There's no evidence of volume capitulation invalidation, as price hasn't sustained below the 174.21 low for 5 consecutive barsâ€”in fact, it bounced immediately on 9/23 with a green candle, aligning with the entry rationale from 9/10 that highlighted capitulation and support at 172-175. Technical indicators support this: RSI at 51.33 is neutral, avoiding overbought territory; MACD at 0.63 with signal at 1.32 shows convergence but not a bearish crossover; Stochastic %K at 30.24 is rising from oversold, suggesting building momentum. Bollinger Bands are at 179.52 upper and 174.30 lower, with price near the middle, indicating room for expansion upward without immediate squeeze....
2025-09-22	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long on JNJ as volume capitulation signals potential bottom in pullback, uptrend remains intact with EMA above SMA, price near key support at 172-175, and no immediate negative catalysts outweighing healthcare stability....
2025-09-19	HOLD LONG
Summary: Staying long on JNJ due to confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding above key support at 172-175, recent bounce from pullback showing resilience, and positive healthcare sector tailwinds from stable demand and no major negative catalysts....
2025-09-18	HOLD LONG
Summary: Staying long on JNJ as the overall uptrend remains with EMA above SMA, price holding above key supports around 172-175, recent resilience after pullback, and positive healthcare sector momentum from stable fundamentals outweighing minor dips....
2025-09-17	HOLD LONG
Summary: Staying long on JNJ as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, recent price action showing resilience near support levels, and no major bearish catalysts from news or fundamentals disrupting the healthcare sector's stability....
2025-09-16	HOLD LONG
Summary: Staying long on JNJ as the uptrend remains intact with price above both EMA and SMA, testing resistance around 178 while healthcare sector shows resilience amid stable fundamentals and no immediate catalysts disrupting momentum....
2025-09-15	HOLD LONG
Summary: Staying long on JNJ as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, testing resistance near 178-180 amid positive healthcare momentum and no near-term catalysts; next earnings mid-October 2025 with no events in next 3 days....
2025-09-12	HOLD LONG
Summary: Staying long on JNJ as the uptrend remains confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, strong momentum pushing toward resistance around 178-180, supported by positive healthcare sector trends and no immediate catalysts disrupting the rally; next earnings mid-October 2025 with no other events in next 3 days....
2025-09-11	HOLD LONG
Summary: Staying long on JNJ in confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, near resistance but with strong momentum from recent highs, supported by positive healthcare sector news and no immediate catalysts; next earnings expected mid-October 2025 with no other events in next 3 days....
2025-09-10	BUY
Summary: Entering long on JNJ at around 175.56 in confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, pulling back to support near 174-175 after recent exit at 176.96, supported by neutral RSI, positive MACD histogram despite signal crossover, and strong healthcare fundamentals with no immediate catalysts; re-entering soon after 9/9 exit due to better entry price on dip with intact uptrend and higher volume suggesting buying interest....
2025-09-09	SOLD
Summary: Exiting long JNJ position to secure gains near resistance around 178-180 after multi-week rally, with overbought indicators like RSI 59 and stochastic near 70 signaling potential pullback, no immediate catalysts, and uptrend intact but momentum fading....
2025-09-08	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA at 177.71 close, no reversal signals, targeting 185-190 resistance amid positive healthcare sector momentum and no near-term catalysts; next earnings October 15, 2025, no other events....
2025-09-05	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position as uptrend continues with price above EMA/SMA, recent close at 177.69 holding above rising support near 177, no clear reversal signals despite minor pullback, targeting 185-190 resistance with positive healthcare sector trends and no imminent catalysts; next earnings October 15, 2025, no other near-term events....
2025-09-04	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position from 178.41 as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA, closes holding above rising support near 177-178, no reversal signals, targeting 185-190 resistance amid positive healthcare momentum; next earnings October 15, 2025, no other near-term catalysts....
2025-09-03	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position from 178.41 as uptrend continues with price above EMA/SMA, recent closes testing but holding above rising support near 176-177, no volume capitulation or reversal signals, targeting 185-190 resistance on sustained healthcare sector strength and positive momentum; next earnings October 15, 2025, no other near-term catalysts....
2025-09-02	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position from 178.41 as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA, positive momentum from recent highs, targeting 185-190 resistance amid stable healthcare demand and no immediate reversals; next earnings October 15, 2025, no other near-term catalysts....
2025-08-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position from 178.41 as uptrend remains intact with price above EMA/SMA, no reversal signals, targeting 185-190 resistance despite minor pullback, supported by stable fundamentals and positive sector momentum; next earnings October 15, 2025, no other near-term catalysts....
2025-08-28	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position from 178.41 as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA, no reversal signals or volume capitulation, targeting 185-190 resistance amid stable healthcare fundamentals and positive sector momentum....
2025-08-27	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position from 178.41 as uptrend remains confirmed with price above EMA/SMA, no volume capitulation or reversal signals, targeting 185-190 resistance over multi-week horizon amid strong healthcare sector stability and positive momentum from recent highs....
2025-08-26	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position entered at 178.41 amid confirmed uptrend with price above EMA/SMA, no immediate earnings or catalysts within 3 days, targeting 185-190 resistance over multi-week horizon despite minor pullback and overbought STO, as healthcare fundamentals remain strong with no volume capitulation or reversal signals....
2025-08-25	BUY
Summary: Entered long on JNJ at around 178.66 in confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, strong momentum from recent highs, supported by rising support at 178.28 and positive healthcare sector tailwinds, targeting 185-190 resistance over multi-week hold despite overbought RSI, as no immediate catalysts or reversals evident; re-entering after 8/13 exit due to continued breakout above prior highs with higher volume and no pullback materializing, indicating sustained buying pressure. The recent price action has broken through prior resistance around 174-176, closing at 178.66 on lower volume but still above the rising support trendline at 178.28, which was tested recently with a bounce, suggesting solid buyer support. Indicators like MACD (4.2018 above signal) and high SlowSTO (97.3) indicate strong upward momentum, though RSI at 73 is overbought, which in past similar setups (e.g., post-earnings rally in July) led to brief consolidations but not major reversals, often extending gains in uptrends....
2025-08-22	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as JNJ is in a strong uptrend but currently overbought with RSI at 76 and stochastic near 100 after a sharp rally to new highs, suggesting a potential pullback before entering long on a dip....
2025-08-21	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash after recent profitable exit as price has rallied further to overbought levels without a dip, prioritizing patience for a high-confidence pullback entry in the ongoing uptrend....
2025-08-20	CASH
Summary: Price is at new highs with overbought RSI around 76 and stochastic near 99, echoing past exits like the 8/13 sell at 174.42 after a rally; staying in cash to avoid buying at the top and wait for a dip in the confirmed uptrend for a high-confidence long entry....
2025-08-19	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as JNJ is in a strong uptrend but at overbought levels near recent highs without a clear dip for entry, and we recently exited a profitable long on 8/13 at $174.42 while current price of $177.66 is higher, not offering a better re-entry point....
2025-08-18	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as JNJ is overbought at new highs after our recent exit, with no clear dip in the confirmed uptrend for a high-confidence long entry....
2025-08-15	CASH
Summary: JNJ is in a clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, but current levels are overbought at highs with RSI 73+ and no dip for entry, so stay in cash awaiting a pullback to rising support near 175 for a high-confidence long setup targeting new highs over weeks....
2025-08-14	CASH
Summary: JNJ is in a confirmed uptrend with price above rising EMAs and supports, but current levels are overbought near recent highs after our profitable exit yesterday, so staying in cash to await a dip for better entry....
2025-08-13	SOLD
Summary: Exiting long JNJ position to lock in gains after multi-week rally to new highs above prior resistance, with overbought RSI near 70 and high stochastic levels signaling potential pullback risk....
2025-08-12	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as the uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout above prior resistance on strong volume, supported by positive momentum and no reversal signals....
2025-08-11	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout above $168.85 resistance on strong volume and momentum, supported by prior Q2 earnings beat and guidance raise, with no immediate catalysts or trend reversal signals....
2025-08-08	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as the strong uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout above prior resistance, and positive momentum from Q2 earnings beat and raised 2025 guidance, while no near-term earnings or catalysts force an exit....
2025-08-07	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, building on Q2 earnings momentum and raised guidance, while monitoring for resistance around 172-175 without near-term catalysts forcing an exit....
2025-08-06	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as the uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, recent highs around 172 showing momentum from July's Q2 earnings beat and raised 2025 guidance, while watching for resistance near 175 or pullback to support at 166 without immediate catalysts....
2025-08-05	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout above 168.85 resistance holding firm around 170, bolstered by strong Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance from July, while monitoring for resistance near 175 or pullback to support at 166....
2025-08-04	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as the uptrend continues with price breaking above key resistance at 168.85 to close at 170.57, supported by strong Q2 earnings momentum and positive analyst revisions, while monitoring for potential pullback to support near 166 or sustained move toward 175....
2025-08-01	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, recent close at 167.36 nearing resistance at 169 but supported by positive analyst sentiment and Q2 momentum, monitoring for sustained break above 168.85 or pullback to support near 164....
2025-07-31	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, post-Q2 earnings momentum fading slightly but no reversal, targeting resistance near 170 while monitoring for pullback support at 163....
2025-07-30	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in JNJ as uptrend persists with price above EMA/SMA, recent Q2 earnings beat and raised guidance supporting momentum toward 170 resistance, no capitulation or reversal signals yet....
2025-07-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position in JNJ amid confirmed uptrend post-Q2 earnings beat with raised guidance, targeting resistance near 170 while monitoring for pullbacks without capitulation signals....
2025-07-28	BUY
Summary: Entered long on JNJ at 165.95 after post-earnings pullback in confirmed uptrend, with positive Q2 beat and raised guidance supporting multi-week rally toward 170+ resistance....
2025-07-25	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as JNJ is near recent highs and resistance at 169 after a strong post-earnings run, with overbought RSI and insider selling signaling potential pullback, avoiding entry at the top of the range in this uptrend....
2025-07-24	CASH
Summary: Recently exited profitable long at $169.1 after strong post-earnings run-up to resistance; now at $169.28 with overbought RSI 75, recent insider selling, and no immediate catalysts, so stay in cash awaiting a dip in the confirmed uptrend for better re-entry targeting multi-week hold....
2025-07-23	SOLD
Summary: Exiting long position after strong post-earnings run to resistance at 168.85 with overbought RSI 74, insider selling, securing profits from 155.17 entry targeting 159-166....
2025-07-22	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as JNJ's strong Q2 earnings beat, raised FY2025 guidance, and uptrend continuation with price above EMA/SMA support multi-week hold targeting 166-169 resistance amid positive healthcare demand and MedTech growth....
2025-07-18	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long JNJ position entered at $155.17 three bars ago, as it has surged to $163.67 after breaking 159-166 resistance target on high volume likely from positive earnings, with bullish MACD and RSI not overbought, supporting multi-week hold amid strong healthcare fundamentals....
2025-07-17	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long JNJ position as strong Q2 earnings on 7/16 drove 6% breakout to 164 with high volume, positive MACD crossover, and RSI at 68 indicating room to run toward 166-168 resistance amid robust healthcare demand....
2025-07-16	HOLD LONG
Summary: JNJ surged to 164.78 on high volume, likely earnings beat, breaking towards 166 resistance with bullish MACD and buy signal; hold long position from 155.17 for multi-week target of 168+ given strong fundamentals and no exit trigger yet....
2025-07-15	BUY
Summary: Price above rising support at 151, positive MACD divergence, and JNJ fundamentals strong with healthcare demand; high-confidence entry for multi-week hold targeting 159-166 resistance.