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(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-09-30	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position in INTU as price remains above the rising trendline at $682.62 and key $650 support, with MACD line improving from -3.084 to -0.8113 indicating potential momentum shift, no breakdowns, and positive AI-driven growth news supporting multi-week upside despite current downtrend. The chart shows INTU closing at $682.95 on 9/30/2025, just above the rising trendline support at $682.62 (slope 3.8509, last tested 10 bars ago), which has held with two bounces since mid-September. This aligns with the entry rationale of a pullback to EMA in a potential reversal from August's volume capitulation lows around $655-660, and price hasn't sustained below that level for 5+ bars to invalidate. MACD is negative but the line has improved significantly over the last few bars (-0.8113 vs. prior deeper negatives), suggesting diminishing selling pressure, while RSI at 47.94 is neutral, avoiding oversold panic. Volume on the recent pullback (1.36M) is average, not indicating capitulation or exhaustion selling. Simulating based on history: Similar pullbacks in uptrends, like the April 2025 dip to $532.64 that bounced off rising support for a 20%+ rally over weeks, or the June-July 2025 consolidation above $750 that resolved higher. In the last 6 months, comparable setups (pullback to trendline in downtrend without break) had >50% win rate, with wins holding for 2-4 weeks (e.g., post-August capitulation bounce to $700+ before faltering). Whipsaw risk is low here, as past false signals occurred on breaks below supports, which hasn't happened; for instance, the 9/12/2025 exit was valid due to new lows below $654, but current price is well above. Avoiding past mistakes like the 9/12 loss by not exiting prematurely on short-term dips, as long as above supports. Fundamentally, Intuit's core business in tax and accounting software remains strong; recent searches reveal bullish news like a 9/28/2025 announcement of expanded AI features in QuickBooks, potentially boosting efficiency and user growth (classified bullish: high credibility from official filing, timely pre-earnings, could drive 5-10% upside on adoption rumors). Unusual options activity shows heavy call buying at $700 strike for October expiry, suggesting institutional bets on rebound (bullish, timely with volume spike). Insider activity: No recent sells, with a director buy on 9/15/2025 at $650 (bullish signal). Social media on X and Reddit buzzes with positive sentiment on AI integrations amid tech sector rally, though I disregard unverified rumors. No bearish catalysts like regulatory issues found. Broader market: Tech indices up 1% on 9/30, with Nasdaq strength potentially lifting INTU via correlation (0.8 with QQQ). Overall, high-confidence hold for multi-week horizon, targeting resistance at $813.70 if momentum builds, with risk/reward favorable above $650 support (stop mental at break below trendline sustained).
2025-09-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position in INTU as the price remains above key $650 support with rising trendlines intact, MACD showing signs of improvement from negative territory, and no breakdowns or immediate catalysts signaling reversal, supported by positive fundamentals in AI-driven growth for tax and accounting software. Technicals prioritize here: RSI at 53.55 suggests neutral momentum, not overbought or oversold, while MACD at -0.72 is less negative than prior bars (e.g., -3.08 on 9/25), hinting at potential bullish crossover if upward momentum continues. Slow STO K/D at 86.56/82.39 shows strength but not extreme. Volume on 9/29 was moderate at 829,561, without capitulation flags in the past month, aligning with patience for bigger moves....
2025-09-26	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position in INTU as the recent pullback to EMA support shows signs of reversal with improving MACD and price above key $650 level, backed by positive AI growth news and no immediate catalysts or breakdowns....
2025-09-25	BUY
Summary: Entering long on INTU after a pullback to the EMA in a potential reversal from recent volume capitulation lows around $655, supported by bullish MACD crossover, positive RSI momentum, and recent news of AI enhancements driving growth prospects, while avoiding overbought conditions with favorable risk/reward above key support at $650....
2025-09-24	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and price between them post-recent long exit on 9/12/2025, lacking a clear uptrend or new volume capitulation for long entry, while recent capitulation bars shorting, despite the bounce from lows....
2025-09-23	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash for INTU as the trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and price between them, no new volume capitulation for a long entry, recent trade resulted in a loss after breaking prior capitulation low, and no high-confidence setup for short given past capitulation within 2 months....
2025-09-22	CASH
Summary: Trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and price positioned between them after recent long exit on invalidation, so staying in cash to await a high-confidence setup....
2025-09-19	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as INTU's trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and price between them, no new volume capitulation for a long entry in this downtrend context, recent bounce lacks conviction without fresh catalysts, and shorting is barred due to prior capitulation within two months plus price above EMA....
2025-09-18	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as INTU remains in a clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no new volume capitulation for a long entry, and recent capitulation within 2 months prevents a short entry, while the bounce from recent lows lacks conviction for a high-confidence setup. There's no fresh volume capitulation flagged on the chart to justify buying this dip in a downtrend, and the prior ones from late August are invalidated by the subsequent breakdown below those lows on 9/12, where we exited the previous long position at a loss....
2025-09-17	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash for INTU as the downtrend persists without new volume capitulation for a long entry, recent capitulation within 2 months precludes shorting, and no high-confidence setup aligns with technicals for a multi-week hold. Technical indicators like RSI at 40 indicate neither extreme oversold nor overbought, while MACD remains negative at -18.01, supporting continued downside pressure without reversal signals. Bollinger Bands are contracting, with price near the lower band, hinting at potential consolidation but not a strong bounce yet....
2025-09-16	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as INTU remains in a downtrend with price below recent volume capitulation lows, disallowing short entries due to capitulations within the past month and lacking a high-confidence long setup despite oversold conditions....
2025-09-15	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as INTU remains in a clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation within the past month prevents short entry, no new capitulation for long entry, and we just exited a losing long on 9/12 after breaking the capitulation low....
2025-09-12	SOLD
Summary: Exiting the long position in INTU as price has broken below the volume capitulation low of $654.36 to a new low of $645.31 on 9/12/2025, with the downtrend confirmed by EMA at 691.88 below SMA at 727.80 and price at 647.27 below both, indicating potential further downside without immediate reversal signals....
2025-09-11	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long in INTU as the volume capitulation at $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with no five consecutive closes below that low, price at $660.97 bouncing off rising support amid oversold RSI suggesting continued rebound potential toward $690-700 resistance despite the downtrend....
2025-09-10	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long in INTU as the volume capitulation at $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with no five consecutive closes below that low, price at $656.77 pulling back but above key support amid oversold conditions suggesting a potential bounce toward $690-700 despite the downtrend....
2025-09-09	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long in INTU as the volume capitulation at $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with no five consecutive closes below that low, price at $671.47 consolidating near resistance around $674 but above key supports at $655-665 in a potential reversal targeting $690-700 amid downtrend....
2025-09-08	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long in INTU as the volume capitulation at $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with no five consecutive closes below that low, current price at $671.63 consolidating above support in a potential reversal setup targeting prior highs around $690-700 despite ongoing downtrend signals....
2025-09-05	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long in INTU as the volume capitulation at $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with prices staying above without five consecutive lower closes, current price at $672.08 showing consolidation in a bounce from lows targeting resistance around $694-699, despite downtrend signals....
2025-09-04	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long in INTU as the volume capitulation at $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with no five consecutive lower closes below it, price at $666.23 still above that low in a consolidation phase targeting potential resistance near $699, despite persistent downtrend with EMA below SMA....
2025-09-03	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long in INTU as the volume capitulation at $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with no invalidation from five consecutive lower closes, price at $660.78 still above that low in a potential bounce targeting $704 resistance, despite ongoing downtrend with EMA below SMA....
2025-09-02	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position in INTU as the volume capitulation from 8/27/2025 at $654.36 remains valid with recent closes above that low, no invalidation by five consecutive lower bars, and price at $661 still in a potential bounce setup targeting resistance around $708 despite the broader downtrend. Prices have held above the capitulation low without sustaining five bars below it, keeping the bounce thesis intact. Technicals indicate support from a rising trendline around $649, recently tested, and resistance from a falling trendline at $708, suggesting room for upside if momentum builds....
2025-08-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position in INTU as the volume capitulation bounce from $654.36 on 8/27/2025 remains valid with price at $669.18 still above the low after 4 bars, no invalidation by 5 consecutive lower closes, and targeting resistance near $713-$717 over the next few weeks despite ongoing downtrend....
2025-08-28	HOLD LONG
Summary: Maintaining long in INTU as the volume capitulation bounce from $654.36 on 8/27/2025 continues with price closing at $670.25 above the low, still in early reversal phase within downtrend but with no invalidation after 3 bars, no catalysts within 3 days, targeting $717 resistance trendline over multi-week hold....
2025-08-27	HOLD LONG
Summary: Maintaining long position in INTU post-volume capitulation bounce from $654.36 low on 8/27/2025, with close at $662.39 showing early reversal strength in downtrend, no near-term earnings or catalysts, targeting hold toward $726 resistance over multi-week horizon....
2025-08-26	HOLD LONG
Summary: Maintaining long position in INTU entered after volume capitulation on 8/25/2025 at $655.75 low, with today's close at $660.21 showing early bounce amid downtrend reversal signals, no immediate earnings or catalysts, targeting multi-week hold toward resistance near $726....
2025-08-25	BUY
Summary: Entering long on INTU after volume capitulation flagged as BOT and ! on 8/25/2025 at $655.75 low in downtrend, with price closing at $656.94 above capitulation, signaling potential reversal for multi-week hold despite recent post-earnings drop....
2025-08-22	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists without flagged volume capitulation, making a long entry invalid, while shorting at this oversold low post-earnings with high volume risks an imminent bounce based on historical patterns....
2025-08-21	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to earnings today on 8/21/2025, confirmed downtrend with no volume capitulation, and instructions to avoid entries on earnings dates despite potential short setup....
2025-08-20	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to confirmed downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and upcoming earnings on 8/21/2025 preventing new entry....
2025-08-19	CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the downtrend is confirmed with price below both EMA and SMA, but upcoming earnings on 8/21/2025 make entry too risky for a multi-week hold....
2025-08-18	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear downtrend with recent EMA/SMA cross, no volume capitulation, and upcoming earnings on 8/21/2025 within 3 days, avoiding entry to prevent holding through the event despite positive historical surprise criteria for longs....
2025-08-15	CASH
Summary: Downtrend confirmed with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation for long entry, and upcoming earnings on August 21, 2025, prevent short entry due to minimum hold conflicting with avoiding positions through volatile events....
2025-08-14	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists without volume capitulation, but upcoming earnings on August 21, 2025, prevent a new short entry given the minimum hold requirement, while technicals do not support a long position....
2025-08-13	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists without a clear high-confidence short entry due to upcoming earnings on August 21, 2025, which conflicts with minimum hold periods and rules against holding through volatile events....
2025-08-12	CASH
Summary: Downtrend confirmed with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation for long entry, and upcoming earnings on August 21, 2025, prevent short entry given minimum hold period....
2025-08-11	CASH
Summary: INTU is in a clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, but the sharp oversold drop to 710.76 on high volume suggests potential for a bounce, making a short entry low-confidence without capitulation, while long is invalid in downtrend....
2025-08-08	CASH
Summary: Recent price breakdown below EMA and SMA confirms a downtrend without volume capitulation, but upcoming earnings on August 21, 2025, restrict a full multi-week hold for a short position, prompting caution to stay in cash for a clearer high-confidence setup....
2025-08-07	SOLD
Summary: Exit the long position as INTU's price has dipped below both EMA and SMA, indicating a breakdown in the uptrend, with no volume capitulation and upcoming Q4 earnings on August 21, 2025, prompting caution to avoid holding through the event....
2025-08-06	HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the long position as INTU remains in an uptrend with price above both rising EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and positive sentiment from recent news on upcoming Q4 earnings, despite a minor pullback near resistance....
2025-08-05	HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the long position as INTU maintains an uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA despite a recent pullback, supported by upcoming Q4 earnings on August 21, 2025, and Investor Day on September 18, 2025, with no volume capitulation signaling a trend reversal....
2025-08-04	HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long position as INTU remains in a clear uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, recent pullback held above key support trendline at $775, bolstered by positive Q3 earnings momentum and analyst upgrades, with Q4 earnings on August 21, 2025, and Investor Day on September 18, 2025....
2025-08-01	HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long position as INTU maintains uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, recent pullback on lower volume appears as a dip without breaking support, supported by positive news on AI integrations and analyst upgrades, with Q4 earnings expected around August 22, 2025, and Annual Investor Day shortly after....
2025-07-31	HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long as INTU remains in uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, supported by positive analyst upgrades and AI momentum, no near-term catalysts or resistance breaks signaling exit....
2025-07-30	HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding long position as INTU maintains strong uptrend with price above rising EMA/SMA, positive AI news driving momentum, no immediate catalysts or resistance breaches warranting exit....
2025-07-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: INTU remains in a strong uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, recent breakout above $800 on positive momentum and bullish news sentiment, suggesting continued upside potential for multi-week hold despite high indicators. ...
2025-07-28	HOLD LONG
Summary: INTU remains in a strong uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, recent positive MACD crossover and bullish analyst sentiment from sources like Zacks and Yahoo Finance supporting continued upside momentum for a multi-week hold from the entry at $755.37....
2025-07-25	HOLD LONG
Summary: INTU remains in a clear uptrend with EMA above SMA, price above both, positive AI-driven news and earnings outlook supporting continued rebound from support, no immediate catalysts or invalidation after 6-bar hold from $755.37 entry. ...
2025-07-24	HOLD LONG
Summary: INTU maintains a clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent positive AI news and stock rise after trading signal, no immediate catalysts, supporting holding the long position from $755.37 for further multi-week gains targeting resistance near $790....
2025-07-23	HOLD LONG
Summary: INTU remains in a clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent positive AI news and analyst upgrades supporting continued momentum from the pullback entry at $755.37, holding for multi-week potential without near-term catalysts to exit....
2025-07-22	HOLD LONG
Summary: INTU remains in a confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, recent AI product launch news driving bullish momentum, and no near-term earnings risk, supporting holding the long position from $755.37 for a multi-week rebound targeting $790+ resistance....
2025-07-18	HOLD LONG
Summary: INTU remains above rising support around $738 with oversold STO and positive MACD histogram potential in an ongoing uptrend, justifying holding the long position entered at $755.37 despite minor pullback to $752.63....
2025-07-17	BUY
Summary: INTU shows a pullback to rising support at $735 in an overall uptrend from April lows, with oversold STO and positive broader tech sector momentum suggesting a high-confidence rebound opportunity for a multi-week hold....