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HON on Tech Trader

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(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

HON on Tech Trader + Grok

Grok's Analysis

2026-04-24 CASH
Summary:

HON is in a clear downtrend with a post-earnings breakdown and no high-conviction setup for a 7+ day hold right now.[[1]](https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/honeywell-international-nasdaqhon-releases-fy-2026-earnings-guidance-2026-04-23/)[[2]](https://www.financialcontent.com/article/stockstory-2026-4-23-honeywell-nasdaqhon-misses-q1-cy2026-sales-expectations-stock-drops)

After the Q1 revenue miss, negative price reaction, and continued selling into the 212 area today, momentum is against us. The chart shows lower highs and lows since the March 248 peak, with the stock breaking recent support levels around 220-225 on elevated volume during the 4/23 earnings drop. Our recent trade history—multiple losing longs from the 225-232 zone—reinforces that chasing dips here has been costly and whipsaw-prone.

Longer term, analysts maintain Buy ratings with targets near 230-250, the aerospace spin-off is on track for Q3, and guidance was largely reaffirmed with EPS beats. However, near-term risks include soft Q2 commentary, ongoing supply chain and geopolitical headwinds mentioned in the report, and no technical reversal signals like a strong hammer or volume climax at these levels.[[3]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HON/)[[4]](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HON/earnings/HON-Q1-2026-earnings_call-548423.html)

As someone actively trading real money, I'm sitting in cash to avoid another quick loss. We'll reassess in a few days for stabilization, a higher low, or clearer bullish structure before committing to a long. There's no edge in forcing a position when the path of least resistance is lower and our recent entries have repeatedly been wrong. Patience here protects capital for a higher-probability setup later.
2026-04-23 CASH
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2026-04-22 CASH
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2026-04-21 CASH
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2026-04-20 SOLD
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2026-04-17 HOLD LONG
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2026-04-16 HOLD LONG
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2026-04-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: We're staying LONG on HON as it holds near our entry with strong analyst targets around $250, positive aerospace momentum, and an earnings catalyst likely to deliver upside in the coming week. ...
2026-04-14 HOLD LONG
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2026-04-13 HOLD LONG
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2026-04-10 HOLD LONG
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2026-04-09 HOLD LONG
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2026-04-08 BUY
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2026-04-07 SOLD
Summary: Exiting our long from $228.2 on 4/1/26 (now down at $223.79 after today's sharp bearish candle) and moving to CASH as the stock broke support with strong sell technical signals and repeated failed rallies. ...
2026-04-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: We're staying LONG on HON from our 4/1/2026 entry at $228.2 as the daily chart shows a constructive recovery from March lows near $221, with today's low-volume dip holding above $226 support and price still within the longer-term uptrend from 2025 lows. ...
2026-04-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: We're holding our LONG in HON from the 4/1 entry at $228.2 (now at $228.9 on 4/2) as daily stochastics are crossing higher from oversold levels, MACD is improving, and price is stabilizing above recent lows with neutral RSI. ...
2026-04-01 BUY
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2026-03-31 CASH
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2026-03-30 SOLD
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2026-03-27 HOLD LONG
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2026-03-26 HOLD LONG
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2026-03-25 BUY
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2026-03-24 CASH
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2026-03-23 CASH
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2026-03-20 CASH
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2026-03-19 CASH
Summary: We exited to cash after the 234 support break from our initial long on uptrend pullback buy, and with continued lower lows to 227 plus Iran conflict risks hitting outlook, nothing improved so we stay in cash....
2026-03-18 CASH
Summary: HON continues to trade weakly below the broken 234 support with another lower close at 230.81 and no recovery signal, so we remain in cash after switching yesterday....
2026-03-17 SOLD
Summary: Last LONG (uptrend intact, buy 234 support) from just yesterday no longer applies as HON broke that level hard today with a new low at 228.50 and weak close at 231.60, so exiting to cash to protect capital....
2026-03-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: HON's strong uptrend from the Nov 2025 lows near 188 to the 248 high remains intact, with the recent 5-6% pullback holding support around 234 and showing signs of stabilization. ...
2026-03-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as uptrend persists with bullish spin-off momentum and optimistic 2026 outlook, despite recent pullback....
2026-03-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON amid uptrend continuation post-spin-off dip, with positive long-term outlook outweighing short-term volatility and no major bearish catalysts....
2026-03-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as price sustains above EMAs in robust uptrend with positive spin-off news outweighing MACD bearish crossover and recent pullback....
2026-03-10 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as robust uptrend breaks resistance above EMAs with healthy RSI, despite MACD crossover signaling caution, backed by no negative news and ongoing spin-off benefits....
2026-03-09 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as uptrend holds above EMAs with oversold STO, hammer reversal, and bullish aerospace spin-off progress....
2026-03-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as strong uptrend persists above key EMAs with positive MACD, high STO, and major bullish catalyst from aerospace spin-off outweighing minor pullback....
2026-03-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as price pulls back in uptrend above EMAs with positive MACD, high STO, and bullish catalysts like aerospace demand outweigh short-term dips....
2026-03-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as price surges to new highs in robust uptrend above rising EMAs, positive MACD, elevated STO, high volume breakouts, and bullish catalysts like aerospace spin-off filing plus analyst targets near $250 outweigh minor momentum dips....
2026-03-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the robust uptrend continues with price hitting new highs above rising EMAs, positive MACD crossover, high volume on breakouts, and bullish catalysts like aerospace recovery and AI integrations outweighing any minor pullbacks....
2026-03-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the strong uptrend pushes to new highs above rising EMAs with positive MACD, bolstered by Wolfe's upgrade to $293 PT and Quantinuum IPO plans, amid no bearish news....
2026-02-27 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the robust uptrend persists with price breaking to new highs above rising EMAs and supports, fueled by analyst upgrades to $293, portfolio transformations, and no bearish catalysts....
2026-02-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the uptrend continues with price at 241 above rising EMAs/SMAs and supports, bolstered by breakout signals, robotics exposure, and positive acquisition/partnership news, despite MACD bearish crossover and low volume dip....
2026-02-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the robust uptrend persists with price at 243 above rising supports and MAs, supported by positive analyst upgrades and acquisition synergies, despite minor MACD dip and no immediate catalysts....
2026-02-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the strong uptrend continues with price hitting 244.08 above key MAs, bolstered by recent acquisition cost savings of $475M and analyst price target hikes to $240+, outweighing overvaluation concerns and MACD dip below signal....
2026-02-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the robust uptrend persists with price at 244.24 breaking resistances, MACD 8.02 bullish crossover, STO 95 overbought but sustained, RSI 73, supported by aerospace recovery and automation growth amid positive analyst upgrades....
2026-02-20 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as robust uptrend continues with close at 243.92 above rising supports, bullish MACD 8.19, STO 93, RSI 73, reinforced by strong aerospace demand, automation breakout, and analyst targets around 244-246 despite 2025 impairments with unchanged 2026 guidance....
2026-02-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as strong uptrend holds with price at 241 above rising supports, bullish MACD 8.31, STO 89, reinforced by HAL engine partnership revival and unchanged 2026 guidance despite 2025 impairments....
2026-02-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as strong uptrend continues with price at 241 above rising supports, bullish MACD 8.67, STO 92, reinforced by 6-9% EPS growth guidance, aerospace strength, and unchanged 2026 outlook despite 2025 impairments....
2026-02-17 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as uptrend strengthens with price at 244 breaking resistance, bullish MACD 9.08 and STO 96, reinforced by aerospace spinoff buzz, automation breakout, HAL partnership, and FY26 revenue upside to $400 cr....
2026-02-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding LONG as HON sustains strong uptrend with price above rising supports at $232, bullish MACD at 9.07, overbought RSI 73 but momentum from aerospace demand and analyst PT hikes to $240, despite minor stall near $241....
2026-02-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Strong uptrend continues with price above rising supports at $241, bullish MACD at 9.29, overbought RSI at 75 but sustained momentum from aerospace demand and positive earnings reaction, holding despite minor pullback to $241.20....
2026-02-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: Strong uptrend persists with price hitting new highs at $243.82 on robust volume, positive MACD crossover, and bullish momentum from recent earnings beat and aerospace sector tailwinds, despite overbought RSI....
2026-02-10 HOLD LONG
Summary: Strong uptrend continues with price surging to new highs at $244.16 on solid volume, bolstered by earnings beat, accelerated aerospace spin-off, and bullish analyst upgrades, outweighing overbought RSI signals....
2026-02-09 HOLD LONG
Summary: Strong uptrend persists with price hitting new highs at $239.87, bullish MACD crossover and positive 2026 EPS growth outlook reinforcing hold for targets above $250 amid aerospace momentum, though overbought RSI suggests monitoring for pullbacks....
2026-02-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Strong uptrend continues with price breaking to new highs above $238, overbought RSI and MACD bullish, supported by positive earnings reaction and aerospace growth momentum; hold long targeting $250+....
2026-02-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Strong uptrend persists with recent earnings beat, upbeat 2026 guidance, and aerospace spinoff unlocking value, pushing HON to new highs near $236; hold long targeting $245+....
2026-01-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: Q4 EPS beat $2.59 vs $2.54 est + record $37B backlog propel new highs at $227; hold long targeting $235....
2026-01-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: JPM $255 Overweight + backlog records propel past $225 pre-earnings; hold long targeting $235....
2026-01-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: JPMorgan Overweight $255 PT + record backlog propel 12% YTD gains; hold long targeting $230 pre-earnings....
2026-01-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: JPMorgan Overweight upgrade to $255 PT + record backlog/breakup catalysts propel past $220; hold long targeting $230....
2026-01-21 HOLD LONG
Summary: Record Q4 order backlog + JPM $255 PT stack drives past $212; hold long targeting $220 pre-earnings....
2026-01-20 HOLD LONG
Summary: JPMorgan Overweight $255 PT + record backlog fuel +2% surge past $210; hold long targeting $220....
2026-01-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: JPMorgan's upgrade to Overweight ($255 PT) and spinoff catalysts ignite rally; hold long from $201 entry now +3% unrealized. (98 chars)...
2026-01-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Earnings preview beats + XLI surge past $207; Evercore $255 PT intact, hold targeting $220....
2026-01-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: Google Cloud AI collab + Q4 beat setup pushes past $205; Evercore $255 PT momentum holds, target $215....
2026-01-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: Q4 preview $2.47 EPS beat whispers + Google Cloud AI retail partnership ignite rally; hold long targeting $210....
2026-01-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Evercore $255 Outperform + Citi $262 Buy outweigh Wells Fargo $215 Hold; spinoff catalysts build to Jan29 earnings....
2026-01-09 HOLD LONG
Summary: Wells Fargo trim pulls below $200 but Evercore $255 PT + Barclays Spring 2026 interest outweigh; hold long targeting $210....
2026-01-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: Sector industrials surge + Evercore $255 PT momentum hits $208; hold long for $215 target....
2026-01-07 HOLD LONG
Summary: Evercore ISI Outperform $255 PT reiterate with bullish Q4/FY25 EPS eyes $210; hold long....
2026-01-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Barclays Overweight $250 PT + spinoff catalysts drive +1.5% gains; hold long targeting $210....
2026-01-05 BUY
Summary: Barclays renewed interest with $250 PT + strategic spinoff overhaul effective Jan 1 sparks rebound; flip from short to capture upside....
2026-01-02 HOLD SHORT
Summary: New year opens with premarket slide on guidance cuts; Flexjet charge overhang persists, target $178....
2025-12-31 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Year-end thin trading rejects $184; Flexjet liability + guidance cuts cap any bounce, target $178....
2025-12-30 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Sustained downside tests $182 on Flexjet overhang; Barclays PT cut reinforces bear case, target $180....
2025-12-29 SHORT
Summary: Flexjet $470M charge + FY25 guidance slash to $37.5-37.7B sales drives fresh lows; hold short targeting $182....
2025-12-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing the long position in HON as the minimum hold period from 12/22/2025 entry at $195.96 hasn't been met, price at 197.17 remains above key support 187-192 with improving MACD crossing above signal line suggesting bullish momentum toward 200-203 resistance, no upcoming catalysts within 3 days....
2025-12-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing the long position in HON as the minimum hold period from 12/22/2025 entry at $195.96 hasn't been met, price at 196.3 remains above key support 187-192 with neutral RSI and slight positive MACD divergence suggesting potential bounce to 200-203 resistance, no upcoming catalysts within 3 days....
2025-12-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing the long position in HON as the minimum 10-14 day hold from 12/17/2025 entry hasn't been met, price remains above key support at 187-192 despite downtrend, with no upcoming catalysts and potential for bounce to 200-223 resistance based on historical recovery patterns....
2025-12-22 BUY
Summary: Continuing the long position entered on 12/17/2025 at 199.89, as minimum 10-14 day hold not yet met despite price dip to 195.44 in downtrend, with no strong exit signals like breaking key support at 187-192 or upcoming catalysts, targeting bounce to resistance near 200-223 based on historical patterns of recoveries after similar pullbacks....
2025-12-19 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON's trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both in a choppy range around 190-200, no recent volume capitulation for long entry in potential downtrend, and insufficient bearish confirmation for short amid recent failed shorts and bounce patterns....
2025-12-18 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON's trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA, price between them in a sideways range, no recent capitulation for long entry in downtrend, price above EMA precluding short, and just exited a losing short yesterday without new compelling catalysts or better setup for quick re-entry. Both averages are nearly flat, not decisively upward or downward, and volume lacks capitulation flags in the last two months to justify a long in this potential downtrend environment. Resistance at 223 (from 8/22) looms far above, while rising supports around 189-192 (from November lows) hold but with weak bounces, suggesting rangebound churning that could whipsaw trades....
2025-12-17 COVERED
Summary: Cover SHORT on HON as price bounces above SMA to 201 with improving MACD and no recent capitulation, cutting losses after bounce from 188 support amid lack of bearish momentum, similar to prior failed shorts....
2025-12-16 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON in confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA, price below SMA, no capitulation, targeting support near 187-189 amid weak momentum and failed bounces, despite minor uptick to 197....
2025-12-15 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Continue holding SHORT on HON in ongoing downtrend with price below SMA, no recent capitulation, targeting support near 187-188 over next few weeks despite minor bounce to 197....
2025-12-12 SHORT
Summary: Enter SHORT on HON at around 193 in confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, no recent capitulation, failed bounce from recent highs, targeting support near 187-188 over next few weeks....
2025-12-11 COVERED
Summary: Exit SHORT on HON as price has bounced from recent lows without breaking support, MACD improving slightly, and no strong bearish catalysts, securing minimal loss after 11-bar hold targeting 187-188 but facing resistance at 195-200....
2025-12-10 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as the downtrend persists with price below descending EMA and SMA, negative MACD, no capitulation, targeting rising support at 187-188 amid minor bounces, 10 bars in with history of profitable patient shorts....
2025-12-09 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as the confirmed downtrend continues with price below descending EMA and SMA, negative MACD, no volume capitulation, and targeting rising support near 187-188, now 9 bars in with similar past shorts gaining from patience amid bounces....
2025-12-08 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as the downtrend persists with price below descending EMA and SMA, negative MACD, no recent volume capitulation, and targeting rising support around 187-188, now 16 bars in with past similar shorts profiting from extended holds despite minor bounces....
2025-12-05 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as downtrend continues with price below descending EMA/SMA, negative MACD, no capitulation, targeting rising support near 187-188, 7 bars in with similar past shorts gaining when held longer amid weak bounces....
2025-12-04 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as downtrend persists with price below descending EMA/SMA, negative MACD, no capitulation, targeting rising support 187-188 amid weak bounces, 6 bars in with past shorts profitable longer in similar patterns....
2025-12-03 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as the downtrend continues with price below descending EMA/SMA, negative MACD, no capitulation, and targeting rising support near 187-188 amid weak bounces and falling resistance, only 5 bars in after past successful shorts held longer in similar setups....
2025-12-01 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with price below descending EMA/SMA, negative MACD, no recent capitulation, and targeting support near 187 amid weak momentum and falling resistance at 191, only 6 bars into the position after reviewing past successful shorts in similar setups....
2025-11-28 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON in confirmed downtrend with price below descending EMA/SMA, no capitulation, targeting support near 185 amid negative MACD and weak momentum, only 3 bars into hold....
2025-11-26 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON in ongoing downtrend with price below descending EMA/SMA, no capitulation, targeting support near 185 amid weak momentum and negative MACD, only 1 bar into minimum hold....
2025-11-25 SHORT
Summary: Enter SHORT on HON in confirmed downtrend with price below descending EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation in past two months, targeting support near 185 over next few weeks amid weak momentum and negative MACD....
2025-11-24 CASH
Summary: Remain in cash as HON persists in a confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, recent September volume capitulations preclude short entry, no fresh capitulation signals enable long entry despite oversold RSI, and choppy price action risks whipsaw without clear reversal....
2025-11-21 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON due to confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA, price below both, both declining, but recent BOT capitulations within 2 months preclude short entry, no new capitulation or uptrend for long, with price at 189.64 near support but no reversal signals....
2025-11-20 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulations preclude short entry, no new capitulation for long entry despite oversold RSI, and choppy action risks whipsaw without clear reversal....
2025-11-19 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash for HON as the confirmed downtrend precludes new long entries without fresh capitulation, while recent BOT signals within 2 months block short entries, with price churning near lows amid weak technicals and no high-conviction reversal setup. These BOTs have already bounced to the SMA, so they can't be reused for new long entries in this downtrend, and there's no fresh capitulation or uptrend to justify buying dips....
2025-11-17 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulations preclude short entry, no new capitulation or uptrend for long entry, and choppy price action near support suggests high risk of whipsaw without clear reversal signals....
2025-11-13 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash for HON as the confirmed downtrend with recent volume capitulations precludes short entry, no new capitulation or uptrend allows long entry, and choppy action risks whipsaw without clear reversal signals....
2025-11-12 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON as it remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA both moving downward, recent volume capitulation within 2 months precluding short entry, no new capitulation for long entry, and choppy price action suggesting high risk of whipsaw without clear reversal. Technical indicators like RSI at 46.89 (neutral but not oversold), MACD at -3.12 (bearish with negative histogram), and Slow STO at 19.48/14.04 (oversold but no strong reversal signal) support caution, while Bollinger Bands are contracting, indicating low volatility and potential consolidation rather than a breakout. Resistance at $202.28 (falling trendline) has capped recent bounces, and the rising support at $193.99 remains untested but could come into play if selling continues; however, past simulations of similar downtrend pullbacks in HON (e.g., failed bounces in August-September 2025) show a <50% win rate for longs, often leading to whipsaws, as seen in our trade history where we exited a long on 10/3/2025 after a BOT failed to sustain....
2025-11-11 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON as the confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA precludes long entry without new capitulation, while recent volume capitulations within 2 months prevent short entry, amid choppy action suggesting high whipsaw risk without clear reversal. Technical indicators support caution: RSI at 46.12 is neutral, MACD at -3.41 remains negative with the line below the signal, and Stochastic shows low momentum with K at 12.82. Bollinger Bands are wide (upper 219.79, lower 189.18), indicating volatility, but price is hugging the lower band without a convincing bounce. Resistance levels at $201.41 (recent high) and falling trendlines around $202-201 suggest overhead pressure, while support near $194-196 has held recently but could break if selling resumes....
2025-11-10 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON as the confirmed downtrend precludes long entries without new volume capitulation, while recent capitulations within 2 months block short entries, with choppy action near lows suggesting high whipsaw risk and no clear reversal. Recent BOT signals on 9/25 and 9/29 at 207.70 and 204.37, plus ! on 9/22 at 209.00, are within 2 months, preventing short entries to avoid reversal risks, as seen in past trades where shorts after capitulations led to quick bounces (e.g., 9/23/2025 short cover and flip to long on BOT). Technicals reinforce caution: RSI at 37.23 is neutral, MACD at -3.79 remains bearish with the line below signal, Slow STO at 4.99/11.0 indicates oversold but no momentum shift, and Bollinger Bands are wide (upper 220.21, lower 189.43) with price near lower band but no squeeze or reversal pattern. Resistance at 223.08 (strength 2, last tested 8/22/2025) caps upside, while falling trendlines from July highs suggest continued pressure; support around 193-195 has held recent lows, but without volume spike, it's vulnerable to breakdown....
2025-11-07 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON as it remains in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA, price below both, recent volume capitulation within 2 months precluding short entry, no new capitulation for long entry, and choppy price action suggesting high risk of whipsaw without clear reversal....
2025-11-06 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON as the confirmed downtrend precludes new long entries without fresh capitulation, while recent volume spikes within 2 months block short entries, with choppy action near lows suggesting high whipsaw risk and no high-confidence setup. No new volume capitulation has occurred recently to enable a long entry in this downtrend, and the prior BOT signals from late September have already bounced to SMA, invalidating them for new buys. Short entries are blocked due to those capitulations being within the past 2 months....
2025-11-05 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash for HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulations preclude short entry, no new capitulation allows long entry, and choppy action risks whipsaw without clear reversal signals....
2025-11-04 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulation within 2 months precludes short entry, no new capitulation for long entry despite oversold conditions, and choppy action risks whipsaw without clear reversal....
2025-11-03 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulation precludes short entry, no new capitulation for long entry, and choppy action risks whipsaw without clear reversal....
2025-10-31 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulation within 2 months precludes short entry, no new capitulation for long entry, and choppy price action suggests high risk of whipsaw without clear reversal....
2025-10-30 CASH
Summary: Downtrend confirmed with price below EMA and SMA both declining, recent volume capitulation within 2 months bars short entry, no new capitulation signal for long despite lows, and post-earnings volatility without clear reversal; staying in cash to avoid whipsaw after recent failed long....
2025-10-29 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash for HON as the trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA, price oscillating between them without clear direction, recent BOT capitulations already played out without sustained rebound, and no high-conviction setup for long or short amid post-earnings volatility and lack of new catalysts....
2025-10-28 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA, price crossings multiple times recently, and no high-confidence setup for long or short despite positive earnings reaction and BOT signals already utilized without sustained rebound....
2025-10-27 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and no new volume capitulation for a long entry in the downtrend, despite the recent post-earnings bounce, to avoid repeating past mistakes of entering longs that failed to sustain....
2025-10-24 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON as trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA, price above both but no confirmed uptrend post-earnings pop, recent capitulations already bounced without invalidation, and no high-conviction setup for entry despite positive earnings reaction....
2025-10-23 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the trend remains unclear with price frequently crossing EMA and SMA recently, despite a strong post-earnings bounce on in-line results and positive market reaction, to avoid low-confidence entries in a choppy setup....
2025-10-22 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash to avoid entering any position right before Q3 earnings tomorrow on 10/23/2025, as the confirmed downtrend persists without a clear reversal despite the recent BOT capitulation at 204.37 not being invalidated, and prior long attempt post-capitulation resulted in a loss due to failure to rebound meaningfully....
2025-10-21 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash to avoid entering a position right before the upcoming earnings on 10/23/2025, as the recent bounce from capitulation lows hasn't confirmed a trend reversal with price still below SMA in a downtrend environment, and historical earnings reactions show volatility with mixed outcomes....
2025-10-20 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash due to confirmed downtrend with recent volume capitulations preventing short entry, earnings on 10/23/2025 prohibiting new long position despite non-invalidated BOT signals at 204.37 and 207.7, and no high-conviction reversal setup outweighing the risk ahead of the catalyst....
2025-10-17 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent BOT capitulation at 204.37 invalidated by sustained lowers, preventing long entry, while the capitulation within past 2 months blocks short entry, and no other high-conviction setup from technicals or news....
2025-10-16 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, recent BOT capitulation at 204.37 not yet invalidated but current price below it amid earnings risk on 10/23 without meeting hold-through criteria, and short entry barred by recent volume signals....
2025-10-15 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash for HON as the confirmed downtrend persists without new volume capitulation for a long entry, recent capitulation within 2 months prevents shorting, and upcoming earnings on 10/23/2025 add risk without meeting hold-through criteria. Recent BOT capitulations on 9/29 at 204.37 and 9/25 at 207.7 are within the past 2 months, blocking short entries, and without a fresh one, long entries are off-limits in this downtrend even though RSI at 38.1 indicates oversold conditions—technicals override that. Price has made new lows below the 9/29 capitulation low, potentially invalidating it anyway, as seen in the failed rebound leading to our 10/3 exit at a loss....
2025-10-14 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation allows long entry but upcoming earnings on 10/23/2025 conflict with minimum hold requirements, preventing a confident position without violating risk rules....
2025-10-13 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash on HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, recent BOT capitulation at 204.37 not yet invalidated but price now below that low without new reversal signals, and upcoming earnings on 10/23/2025 prevent a high-confidence entry given hold requirements and lack of qualifying historical reactions....
2025-10-10 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent BOT capitulation at 204.37 not yet invalidated but price closing lower at 200.88 suggesting weakness, and upcoming earnings on 10/23/2025 without criteria to hold through, while no high-confidence reversal signals or new catalysts justify entry....
2025-10-09 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists with price breaking below the recent BOT capitulation low at 204.37 without 5-bar sustained invalidation yet, but no high-confidence entry for long or short, recent failed bounces in similar setups, and earnings approaching on 10/23/2025....
2025-10-08 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as HON remains in a confirmed downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulation prevents short entry, no new catalysts for long despite price above prior BOT low, and upcoming earnings add risk without meeting hold-through criteria....
2025-10-07 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash for HON as the downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, recent BOT capitulation bounce has stalled without reaching resistance, and upcoming earnings on 10/23/2025 introduce volatility risk without meeting positive historical surprise criteria, while no high-conviction reversal signals or new bullish catalysts emerge to justify re-entering long soon after the 10/3 exit....
2025-10-06 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, recent capitulation bounce has failed to gain traction similar to prior patterns, and no high-conviction reversal signals outweigh the risk ahead of earnings....
2025-10-03 SOLD
Summary: Exit the long position in HON as the price has failed to rebound meaningfully from the recent BOT capitulation at 204.37, remaining in a downtrend with EMA below SMA and no bullish catalysts outweighing broader market weakness, while planning to avoid holding through upcoming earnings....
2025-10-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the long position in HON as the recent BOT capitulation at 204.37 remains valid with price holding above the low without 5-bar invalidation, despite ongoing downtrend, targeting resistance near 238 while planning an exit before the 10/23 earnings to avoid volatility....
2025-10-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the long position in HON as the BOT capitulation at 204.37 remains valid with price above the low and no 5-bar invalidation, despite downtrend, targeting resistance near 238 while planning exit before 10/23 earnings....
2025-09-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the long position in HON as the recent BOT capitulation at 204.37 remains valid with price holding above without 5-bar invalidation, in a downtrend but with recovery signals targeting resistance near 238, while monitoring for breaks below 204.37 and planning exit before 10/23 earnings. The EMA (213.43) is below SMA (217.11) with price below both, confirming a downtrend, but the capitulation allows holding this reversal setup without immediate exit, as there's no invalidation yet—price hasn't sustained below 204.37 for five bars....
2025-09-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding the long position in HON as the recent BOT capitulation signals at 204.37 and 207.7 suggest a potential reversal bottom in the downtrend, with price recovering above prior lows without invalidation, targeting resistance near 238 while monitoring for sustained breaks below 204.37. Today's bar dipped to a new low but closed at 208.9 with a recovery, forming a potential hammer candle on moderate volume (2.07M), which often signals exhaustion selling and reversal in similar historical setups for HON, like the bounce after the 7/25/2025 post-earnings dip before it eventually failed....
2025-09-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long on HON as the BOT capitulation at 207.3 on 9/25/2025 remains valid with price above the low after 3 bars, no invalidation by 5 consecutive closes below, targeting resistance near 238 despite downtrend, with next earnings on 10/23/2025....
2025-09-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long on HON as the recent BOT capitulation at 207.3 on 9/25 remains valid with price closing above the low, no invalidation yet, and targeting resistance near 238 in potential reversal despite downtrend....
2025-09-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold long on HON as the BOT capitulation at 207.33 remains valid with price above the low, no invalidation by 5 consecutive closes below, and targeting resistance near 238 despite current downtrend pullback. Today's close at 208.78 is a minor pullback but stays above that capitulation low, and there haven't been 5 consecutive closes below it to invalidate the signal—only two bars have passed since, both closing higher. Technicals confirm a downtrend with EMA (214.85) below SMA (219.36) and price below both, but the capitulation overrides for entry, and we don't exit existing positions solely due to unclear trend....
2025-09-23 BUY
Summary: Cover short and enter long on HON following high-conviction BOT capitulation signal at 207.33, with price holding above low in confirmed downtrend allowing reversal entry, targeting resistance near 238 amid potential bounce patterns seen in past recoveries. Today's close at 209.49 remains above that low, not invalidating the signal yet (would require 5 consecutive closes below). RSI at 35.74 is oversold, supporting a bounce, while MACD at -2.94 shows bearish momentum but potential for crossover on reversal. Volume on capitulation day was elevated at 4.8M, though lower than 9/19's 11M spike, reinforcing bottom formation....
2025-09-22 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, recent capitulation not yet invalidated, targeting support near 205 amid ongoing selloff patterns similar to past failed bounces....
2025-09-19 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as the downtrend continues with price below EMA and SMA, no capitulation, targeting support around 205, with positive aerospace demand but technicals overriding. ...
2025-09-18 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold SHORT on HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and targeting support near 205 while avoiding early exit after only 1 bar hold....
2025-09-17 SHORT
Summary: Enter SHORT on HON in confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, no recent capitulation, targeting support near 205 over next few weeks, re-entering soon after 9/12 cover as price sustains below prior lows without meaningful bounce or reversal signals....
2025-09-16 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash for HON as the confirmed downtrend persists but price is at the bottom of the recent 210-222 range near support, with no high-confidence short setup to avoid poor entry and potential bounce, while no long triggers like volume capitulation appear....
2025-09-15 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the downtrend persists but price is already near recent lows without clear capitulation or bounce for a high-confidence short re-entry so soon after covering profitably on 9/12....
2025-09-12 COVERED
Summary: Exit short on HON as price nears targeted support around 210 in ongoing downtrend without capitulation, securing profits after 13-bar hold with no immediate reversal signals....
2025-09-11 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Maintain short on HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and today's bullish engulfing lacks conviction without broader reversal confirmation, targeting support near 210 over the next few weeks. Volume remains unremarkable, and there's no flagged capitulation to signal a potential bottom. The potential bullish engulfing candle today is notable, but it's isolated without supporting indicators like RSI breaking above 50 (currently 43.38) or MACD crossover (MACD -2.34, still negative), so it doesn't override the technical downtrend for an exit....
2025-09-10 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Maintain short on HON as the downtrend continues with price below EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and recent price action testing support near 210 without reversal signals, targeting further downside....
2025-09-09 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Maintain short on HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, weakening momentum, and chart showing continued downside toward 210 support without clear reversal signals....
2025-09-08 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as the downtrend continues with price below EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and technicals pointing to further downside toward 210 support amid weakening momentum....
2025-09-05 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and recent price action breaking lower supports toward potential downside targets around 210-212 over the coming weeks....
2025-09-04 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as the downtrend continues with price below EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, and recent breaks below support levels suggesting further downside potential over the next few weeks....
2025-09-03 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as the confirmed downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, recent price breaking below prior support around 215 without reversal signals, and historical patterns showing continued downside after failed bounces amid industrial sector headwinds....
2025-09-02 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as the downtrend remains confirmed with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, and price approaching support at 215.82 without reaching it yet, amid ongoing industrial sector pressures and failed bounces in recent history....
2025-08-29 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as the confirmed downtrend continues with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, targeting support at 215 amid recent failed bounces and broader industrial sector weakness....
2025-08-28 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as the downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, recent failed bounces, and targeting support near 215 over the coming weeks....
2025-08-27 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Hold short on HON as downtrend continues with EMA below SMA, price below both, no volume capitulation, targeting support at 215 over next few weeks amid recent failed bounces and broader market pressures....
2025-08-26 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Continue holding short on HON as downtrend persists with EMA below SMA, no volume capitulation, and price still below SMA targeting support near 215 over next few weeks, despite minor bounce above EMA....
2025-08-25 SHORT
Summary: Enter SHORT on HON in confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, no recent volume capitulation, targeting support near 215 over next few weeks, following recent pattern of failed bounces....
2025-08-22 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price slightly above EMA, no recent volume capitulation for a long entry in potential downtrend, and unable to short above EMA while avoiding quick re-entry after recent long exit loss....
2025-08-21 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists with price below both EMA and SMA, but recent volume capitulation within the past month prevents a short entry, and no new capitulation allows a long in this setup....
2025-08-20 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the confirmed downtrend persists without a new volume capitulation signal for a long entry, and the recent capitulation within the past month precludes a short setup despite favorable technicals below the EMA....
2025-08-19 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the confirmed downtrend lacks a new volume capitulation for a long entry, and the recent capitulation within the past month prevents a short setup, with price bouncing off rising support but no high-confidence reversal signal yet....
2025-08-18 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists without a new volume capitulation for long entry, and shorting is barred due to the recent capitulation within the past month, with price near support but no high-confidence reversal signal....
2025-08-15 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the confirmed downtrend prohibits new long entries without fresh volume capitulation, while the recent capitulation within the past month blocks short entries, offering no high-confidence setup with favorable risk/reward....
2025-08-14 CASH
Summary: In a clear downtrend with a recent volume capitulation within the past month blocking short entry, and no uptrend or new capitulation to justify a long position, staying in cash is the optimal move to wait for a high-confidence setup....
2025-08-13 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the downtrend persists without a new volume capitulation for long entry, and short entry is barred due to the recent capitulation within the past month, with no high-confidence setup for either side....
2025-08-12 CASH
Summary: Downtrend is clear with price below both EMA and SMA, but recent volume capitulation on 7/25 prevents short entry, and the invalidated capitulation plus downtrend rules out long, so stay in cash for better opportunities....
2025-08-11 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as HON is in a confirmed downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent capitulation invalidated but still within past month preventing short entry, and no high-confidence setup for long given the bearish technicals and recent losing trade....
2025-08-08 CASH
Summary: In confirmed downtrend but recent volume capitulation within past month prevents short entry, while long entry not supported without uptrend or new capitulation; stay patient after recent loss....
2025-08-07 SOLD
Summary: Exit LONG on HON as capitulation low at 222.29 invalidated by 5 consecutive closes below, in confirmed downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, despite positive aerospace forecasts, to cut losses near support around 215....
2025-08-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding LONG on HON as capitulation low at 222.29 not yet invalidated after only 4 consecutive closes below, supported by raised 2025 aerospace demand forecasts and oversold RSI 36.6, targeting resistance near 238 over coming weeks despite current downtrend....
2025-08-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON despite downtrend signals as capitulation at 222.29 not invalidated, recent raised 2025 forecasts on aerospace demand support recovery, RSI 38 indicates oversold, targeting resistance at 238 over weeks....
2025-08-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as it's oversold with RSI 37 near recent lows around 217-220, positive Q2 2025 earnings beat with raised full-year guidance supporting recovery potential toward 238 resistance, and capitulation at 222.29 not invalidated by 5 sustained bars below despite recent dips....
2025-08-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON despite recent dip below capitulation low as it hasn't been invalidated by 5 sustained bars below 222.29, with oversold RSI 32, positive Q2 earnings beat and raised 2025 guidance from July 24, institutional buying and analyst PT hikes to $245-250 signaling recovery potential toward 238-241 resistance over next few weeks....
2025-07-31 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the capitulation at 222.29 low hasn't been invalidated by 5 sustained bars below, with positive Resideo termination deal yielding $1.59B cash payment and boosted 2025 outlook from July 30 news, oversold RSI 37.4, unclear trend but no downtrend signal, targeting resistance near 238-241 over next few weeks. Fundamentals support this, as Honeywell's July 24 Q2 earnings beat expectations with $10.4B sales up 8%, adjusted EPS $2.75 exceeding guidance, and raised full-year organic growth and EPS outlook, further bolstered by the July 30 Resideo agreement termination providing a one-time $1.59B payment and eliminating future obligations, as reported on TipRanks and StockTitan. X posts reflect positive sentiment on the deal and outlook, aligning with innovation in areas like quantum computing and microelectronics market growth to $10.87T by 2032 per OpenPR. Technically, EMA slightly above SMA at 229.66 vs 229.09 with price below both indicates unclear trend, but no frequent crossings or tight ranging in the past month, and no new capitulation suggests avoiding exit solely on trend ambiguity. Simulating past setups, like the October 2024 post-drop recovery from 209 to 233 after similar earnings volatility, shows >50% win rate on holding capitulation dips without immediate breakdown, unlike false signals in rangebound periods like early 2025 where we exited flat pre-earnings to avoid whipsaw. Resistance at 238.31 with falling trendlines around 239-241 could cap upside, but patient hold targets there, avoiding sell near current support lows around 221-222. No upcoming earnings or major catalysts in next 3 days; Q3 earnings likely in October based on prior July 24 Q2 release pattern. Dividend of $1.13 quarterly announced July 25 remains supportive for longer horizon.
2025-07-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the capitulation buy at 224.24 holds with price not sustaining below low for 5 bars, positive July 30 news on Resideo deal and boosted outlook, oversold RSI 35.9, and targeting resistance 238-241 amid recovery potential....
2025-07-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the post-earnings capitulation buy at 224.24 remains valid with positive Q2 beat, raised FY guidance, oversold RSI near 36, and price above capitulation low without sustained break, targeting resistance at 238-241 in potential uptrend resumption....
2025-07-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as post-earnings dip shows recovery signs with volume capitulation, positive Q2 beat and raised FY guidance, oversold conditions improving, and targeting resistance near 238-241 in resuming uptrend....
2025-07-25 BUY
Summary: Enter LONG on HON after post-earnings capitulation dip with volume spike flagged "!" at 223.74, positive Q2 beat and raised FY guidance, oversold RSI 37.6, targeting resistance near 238-241 over next few weeks in resuming uptrend....
2025-07-24 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as the price has dipped below both EMA and SMA on high volume post-earnings, making the trend unclear despite positive fundamentals from the Q2 2025 beat and raised guidance, with no volume capitulation flagged to justify a long entry on this pullback....
2025-07-23 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash to avoid high volatility from Honeywell's Q2 2025 earnings release tomorrow on July 24th, as historical reactions often show downside even on beats, despite the clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both targeting potential resistance near 241 over weeks....
2025-07-22 SOLD
Summary: Exit LONG on HON ahead of Q2 earnings on July 24th to avoid volatility, as the stock is flat since entry at 236.54 with current close at 236.58, despite uptrend, but historical earnings reactions show downside risk even on beats....
2025-07-21 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold LONG on HON as the uptrend remains intact with EMA above SMA and price above both, no trend invalidation despite upcoming earnings on July 24, supported by recent positive aerospace demand news and earnings beat history....
2025-07-18 BUY
Summary: Enter LONG on HON as it pulls back to strong rising support around 235-236 in an established uptrend, with positive MACD, neutral RSI, and bullish catalysts like recent earnings beat and aerospace demand, targeting 241 resistance over the next few weeks....