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Daily Chart

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HD on Tech Trader

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(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

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Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-09-30 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with price between EMA and SMA after recent pullback from highs, no volume capitulation or strong catalysts for entry, and just exited long position on 9/25 at 407.45 so avoiding quick re-entry without better setup.

The chart shows HD in a broader uptrend since mid-2025 lows around 340-350, but the past month has seen choppy action with a peak at 423 on 9/11 followed by a decline to today's close at 405.21, testing support near 403-405 without breaking lower yet. RSI at 44.87 is neutral, not oversold, while MACD (1.54) is below its signal (4.05) with a bearish crossover, pointing to weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands are contracting slightly, with price near the lower band, hinting at potential consolidation rather than a sharp move.

Simulating based on history, similar pullbacks in Q2 2025 (e.g., April drop from 370 to 335) led to bounces when support held, but often with whipsaw—win rate on dip buys in unclear trends was below 50% in the last 6 months, like the false bounce in June that retested lows. Past trades show we profited from range-bound plays (e.g., July buy at 358.64 near support, sold at 377.23 near resistance), but entering now risks a break below 403 toward 390-400 support if no catalyst emerges. No volume capitulation flagged recently, so avoiding longs in this setup despite the dip.

Fundamentally, Home Depot's Q2 earnings on 8/19/2025 showed flat EPS surprise but positive 3.17% reaction, driven by steady consumer spending; however, historical data indicates low volatility from earnings (average reaction ~1.28%), but we don't meet the surprise threshold for holding through. Searching recent news: Bullish item—analyst upgrades citing expected Fed rate cuts boosting housing (credible, timely, potential +2-5% upside if rates drop). Neutral—Q3 sales guidance reiterated amid stable DIY demand. Bearish—rising lumber costs and softening home sales data from 9/28/2025 report (credible from economic indicators, could pressure margins, potential -3% reaction). Integrating material impacts, rate cut rumors support mild bullishness, but not enough to override unclear technicals—sticking to chart priority, no high-confidence long setup without confirmed uptrend resumption.

No unusual options activity or insider buys flagged in recent filings; social media buzz is mixed with some optimism on retail recovery, but nothing conviction-building. Upcoming earnings estimated for 11/18/2025 (post-Q3), no events in next 3 days; other catalysts like holiday sales previews could emerge in October, but nothing immediate. Overall, better to stay in cash for a clearer trend or dip to stronger support like 390, avoiding poor risk/reward here where downside to 390 outweighs upside to 415 resistance.
2025-09-29 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash after recent exit on failure to break 428 resistance with bearish MACD crossover and price below EMA in unclear trend, no volume capitulation or new bullish catalysts to justify quick re-entry at similar price....
2025-09-26 CASH
Summary: Just exited long position yesterday after failure to break $428 resistance with bearish MACD crossover and pullback below EMA, and today's minor rebound lacks new catalysts or volume support for quick re-entry in the uptrend....
2025-09-25 SOLD
Summary: Exiting the long position as price has failed to break through the $428 resistance after approaching highs around $426, now pulling back below the EMA with a bearish MACD crossover and declining momentum, while no major bullish catalysts are evident to support continuation....
2025-09-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the confirmed uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, aiming for $428 resistance amid positive momentum and no imminent bearish catalysts. Technical indicators support continuation: RSI at 50.85 indicates neutral but not overbought territory, MACD at 4.33 remains positive with the line above the signal, and Slow STO K/D at 24.48/47.72 suggests potential for upward momentum from oversold levels. Bollinger Bands are expanding slightly (upper 425.75, lower 403.17), pointing to volatility favoring bulls, and the price is holding above the rising support trendline around 405, while resistance at 428 looms as a logical target based on prior bounces....
2025-09-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, no upcoming earnings or bearish catalysts within 3 days, and technicals supporting further upside toward $428 resistance despite some momentum slowdown....
2025-09-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, no bearish catalysts or earnings within 3 days, and momentum supporting a push toward $428 resistance amid positive retail sector trends....
2025-09-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend remains intact with price above EMA and SMA, approaching $428 resistance without immediate bearish catalysts, supported by positive retail trends and recent breakout momentum....
2025-09-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, recent closes approaching $428 resistance, supported by positive retail spending trends and no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, approaching $428 resistance amid positive housing market momentum and no near-term catalysts....
2025-09-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, strong momentum pushing toward $428 resistance, supported by positive sector news and no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, approaching $428 resistance amid bullish momentum and no near-term catalysts, while recent news supports positive sentiment in home improvement sector....
2025-09-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the confirmed uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, strong momentum pushing toward $428 resistance, supported by bullish MACD crossover and no immediate catalysts or bearish signals. Technical indicators reinforce this: RSI at 68.32 indicates healthy momentum without being overbought, MACD at 8.5574 above its signal line at 8.4137 suggests continued bullishness, and Stochastic %K at 87.54 shows strength but not exhaustion. Volume on the latest bar was 3.7 million, solid but not extreme, aligning with steady buying interest....
2025-09-10 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, momentum building toward $428 resistance, supported by positive technical indicators and no immediate bearish catalysts. Recent price action includes a pullback from $419.94 on 9/8, but this appears as a healthy dip within the rising channel, supported by trendlines like the one at $411.74 last tested 6 bars ago, providing a solid base for continuation higher....
2025-09-09 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, building momentum toward $428 resistance, supported by positive technicals and no near-term catalysts or bearish news....
2025-09-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, momentum building toward $428 resistance after recent breakout, no immediate bearish news or earnings....
2025-09-05 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend remains confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout above $410 gaining momentum toward $428 resistance, no bearish catalysts or near-term earnings....
2025-09-04 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the confirmed uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout momentum intact, targeting resistance at 428 without immediate bearish catalysts or earnings risks....
2025-09-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, no bearish signals or catalysts, targeting resistance at 428 amid positive momentum....
2025-09-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend remains intact with price above both EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation or bearish catalysts to warrant an early exit, targeting resistance near 428 over the coming weeks....
2025-08-29 BUY
Summary: Re-entering long at a slightly better price of around 406 after yesterday's exit at 407.45, as the pullback to rising trendline support at 406.86 provides a high-confidence dip buy in the confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, targeting resistance at 428 for a weeks-long hold, justified by the improved entry on support without new bearish catalysts, despite no volume capitulation....
2025-08-28 SOLD
Summary: Exiting the long position as price has failed to sustain above recent highs, showing weakening momentum near $410 resistance with no fresh catalysts, while holding period minimum met at 11 bars for a modest gain opportunity....
2025-08-27 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend is confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, positive momentum continues post-earnings without reversal signals, and we're not yet nearing the $428 resistance level. Volume has been supportive during recent advances, and RSI at 63.29 indicates room for further upside without being overbought. Key support is at $352.38 with multiple bounces, while resistance looms at $428, which aligns with historical highs from late 2024; we're approaching but not testing it yet, so holding makes sense for a potential push higher over the next few weeks....
2025-08-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend remains confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, no reversal signals, positive momentum post-earnings, and we've met the minimum hold period without nearing key resistance at $428....
2025-08-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend is confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, we've held 8 bars nearing the 10-14 day minimum, and no reversal signs near $418-$428 resistance amid positive post-earnings momentum....
2025-08-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend remains confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, we've held only 7 bars against the 10-14 day minimum, and price is nearing but not yet at $418-$428 resistance without signs of reversal....
2025-08-21 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding the long position as the uptrend is intact with price above both EMA and SMA, recent pullback held above key support levels without volume capitulation, and minimum hold period of 10-14 days not yet fully met while eyeing resistance at $418-$428....
2025-08-20 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing to hold the long position as the uptrend remains confirmed with price above EMA and SMA, recent pullback found support without breaking key levels, and minimum hold period not yet met while targeting $418-$428 resistance....
2025-08-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position in confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout momentum intact post-earnings, targeting $418-$428 resistance while respecting minimum hold period. Volume on the recent surge supports bullish continuation, and there's no volume capitulation to signal a reversal. Key support at $352-$374 has held during prior dips, as seen in simulations from March-May 2025 pullbacks that bounced without breaking lower, avoiding whipsaw losses like those in volatile ranges earlier this year. The position, entered 4 bars ago on a post-earnings breakout above $401, aligns with historical patterns where HD rallied 5-10% after similar setups (e.g., post-May 2025 earnings recovery). Risk/reward favors holding toward $418 resistance, noted in prior reasons, with potential extension to $428 based on the chart's rising trendline and strength. No immediate catalysts or earnings within 3 days—next HD earnings expected around November 18, 2025, based on quarterly cycle. Fundamentals like steady home improvement demand and no bearish news supplement the technicals without overriding them. Past trade from July gained on a similar support bounce, reinforcing patience over short-term fluctuations.
2025-08-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in uptrend with price at $394.9 above EMA/SMA and key support at $374, post-earnings pullback not violating trend or prior reasons, targeting $418 resistance....
2025-08-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long in confirmed uptrend post-earnings breakout, with price at $398.73 above key support at $374 and EMA/SMA, targeting $418 resistance, no catalysts or reversal signals yet....
2025-08-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position entered after earnings breakout above $401 resistance in uptrend, with price at $400.45 still above support at $374 and targeting $418, no immediate catalysts or trend reversal....
2025-08-13 BUY
Summary: Entered long on 8/13/2025 at $406.56 after post-earnings breakout above $401 resistance in confirmed uptrend, targeting $418 resistance with support at $374, no immediate catalysts....
2025-08-12 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the uptrend continues but price is near resistance at 401 with upcoming earnings on 8/19/2025 preventing a new long entry given the minimum hold period and lack of qualifying positive earnings history....
2025-08-11 CASH
Summary: Uptrend confirmed with EMA above SMA and price above both, but upcoming earnings on 8/13/2025 within 3 days prohibit new entry to avoid volatility....
2025-08-08 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash to avoid entering a new position too close to the upcoming earnings date on August 19, 2025, which conflicts with the minimum hold period and rules against holding through catalysts....
2025-08-07 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear uptrend but upcoming earnings on August 19 preventing a new entry that would require holding through the catalyst, with no other major events noted....
2025-08-06 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the current price at 387 is not a dip in the uptrend but near recent highs with upcoming earnings on August 19, 2025, providing no high-confidence long entry and no short setup in this uptrend....
2025-08-05 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to solid uptrend but upcoming earnings on August 19 risking volatility, no high-confidence dip entry near support, and price near recent highs approaching resistance at 401 without clear catalyst to hold through event....
2025-08-04 CASH
Summary: Price is touching falling resistance at 381.73 in an uptrend with mixed news on lowered profit forecasts but positive Q2 earnings outlook, so stay in cash to wait for a better entry on a dip rather than buying at potential top....
2025-08-01 CASH
Summary: Price is near the 375 resistance level in an uptrend without a recent dip, so staying in cash to avoid buying at the top of the range and wait for a better entry opportunity....
2025-07-31 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly bound and price oscillating around them without clear direction, so staying in cash to wait for a high-confidence setup like a breakout above 375 resistance or volume capitulation for a long entry....
2025-07-30 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend from frequent EMA/SMA crossings in July, no volume capitulation, and potential near-term earnings volatility despite positive analyst outlook for Q2 2025....
2025-07-29 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly bound together, and after recently exiting a profitable long near resistance, it's best to stay in cash for a clearer setup or dip to support amid positive Q2 earnings expectations....
2025-07-28 SOLD
Summary: Price has reached and surpassed the targeted 375 resistance level from the entry near support, providing a favorable exit point in the ongoing uptrend with positive earnings expectations but avoiding holding through potential volatility. ...
2025-07-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, positive analyst outlook for Q2 earnings with expected profit increase, and no trend invalidation after holding 8 bars near target resistance of 375....
2025-07-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding existing long position as price remains above key support in unclear but non-downtrending market, with positive Q2 earnings outlook and no invalidation of uptrend yet....
2025-07-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing to hold long position as price has bounced from support at 352 and is showing upward momentum towards resistance at 375-401, with no immediate catalysts to exit....
2025-07-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as price has bounced from support near 352 to 371 with unclear trend but no volume capitulation or bearish catalysts, targeting resistance at 375 amid recent acquisitions and positive sentiment....
2025-07-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position as price stabilized above key support at 352 after a brief dip, maintaining potential for bounce to 375 resistance amid neutral indicators and no significant bearish catalysts....
2025-07-17 HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the existing long position as price remains above key support at 352 with momentum indicators showing potential for a bounce toward 375 resistance amid no major bearish catalysts....
2025-07-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding LONG position entered at 358.64 as HD bounced off key 352 support with positive MACD crossover, no major bearish news, and favorable risk/reward targeting 375 resistance amid housing market recovery signals....
2025-07-15 BUY
Summary: Price near support at 352 with favorable risk/reward for bounce to 375 resistance, holding for weeks amid range-bound action and no major bearish catalysts found.