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(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

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Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-10-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing long position from $263.41 as uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, positive MACD crossover, recent high-volume breakout above $250 resistance, and bullish AI catalysts outweighing short-term pullback. MACD is positive at 2.82 with the line above signal, indicating building momentum after the high-volume surge from 236 on 10/16 to 263 on 10/21, breaking key resistance around 250; this aligns with historical patterns where similar breakouts in uptrends (e.g., late June to early July) led to 5-10% gains over weeks before pullbacks, supporting a hold toward the $278 target near prior highs.

Fundamentally, Salesforce benefits from strong AI integrations like Agentforce, with recent news highlighting expanded partnerships (e.g., with Workday on 10/22, classified bullish: credible from official announcements, timely, potential for positive market reaction via improved enterprise AI adoption driving revenue). Unusual options activity shows elevated call volume on 10/23-24, with strikes around 260-270, suggesting institutional bets on upside—bullish signal with material impact. Insider activity is neutral, no major sells recently. Social media buzz on X is positive on AI growth, though some caution on broader market volatility; I disregard unverified rumors but note no bearish catalysts like lawsuits or downgrades in searches.

No upcoming earnings or events within 3 days—next earnings estimated December 3, 2025 (post-market), with no major catalysts like Dreamforce until 2026; historical reactions were mostly negative despite positive surprises, so plan to exit before if hold extends, but that's weeks away. Simulating forward, similar post-breakout pullbacks (e.g., August rally after lows) rebounded 8-12% over 2-3 weeks without breaking support, with <50% whipsaw risk in last 6 months for these setups; past trade losses came from shorting without capitulation or chasing highs, avoided here by holding patiently in uptrend. Risk/reward favors long with stop near 233 support (recent low), targeting 278 resistance for ~9% upside potential over weeks, ignoring minor dips as noise.
2025-10-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: Continuing long position from $263.41 in confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, positive MACD, recent high-volume surge breaking resistance, targeting $278 amid AI growth catalysts and no near-term earnings....
2025-10-21 BUY
Summary: Entered long at around $264.59 in new uptrend with EMA above SMA, price above both, bullish MACD crossover, high volume surge breaking recent resistance, targeting $278 resistance over weeks amid AI growth catalysts and no near-term earnings....
2025-10-20 COVERED
Summary: Covering short position from $240.43 as price surges above EMA and SMA with bullish MACD crossover signaling potential reversal, cutting losses amid rebound to resistance and recent bullish news on AI expansions....
2025-10-17 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short position from $240.43 as downtrend persists without volume capitulation, price hasn't reached $227 support target amid bearish momentum, and recent bounce shows signs of weakening near resistance....
2025-10-16 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short position from $240.43 as downtrend continues with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, targeting $227 support amid bearish momentum and lack of bullish catalysts....
2025-10-15 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short position from $240.43 as downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, aiming for $227 support over the coming weeks amid bearish momentum and lack of positive catalysts....
2025-10-14 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short position from $240.43 as downtrend continues with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, recent bearish engulfing candle supports further decline toward $227 support over the coming weeks, with no immediate earnings or catalysts disrupting the setup....
2025-10-13 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short from $240.43 as downtrend conditions persist with EMA below SMA, no volume capitulation, and price bounce lacks conviction to warrant early exit despite recent rise toward $253 resistance, targeting $227 support over weeks....
2025-10-10 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short position from $240.43 as downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, targeting $227 support amid bearish momentum and no volume capitulation, despite close EMA/SMA proximity suggesting potential unclear trend but not warranting exit yet....
2025-10-09 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short position entered at $240.43 amid ongoing downtrend signals, with price rebound not invalidating bearish setup targeting $227 support over multi-week horizon despite unclear trend and no volume capitulation. Technicals prioritize holding for at least 10-14 days, and simulating past patterns like the failed short on 7/16/2025 (covered at loss after rebound) versus successful one on 8/1/2025 (gained to support) suggests caution but no immediate exit trigger here, as price hasn't sustained above key levels or shown reversal indicators like bullish MACD crossover (current MACD at -1.591 improving slightly but still negative). Support at $227.77 remains the target, with resistance at $253 potentially capping upside; historical whipsaws in similar setups over last 6 months had >50% win rate for shorts held through minor bounces without capitulation....
2025-10-08 SHORT
Summary: Entering short at around $239.94 in confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no recent volume capitulation, targeting support near $227 over the next few weeks for favorable risk/reward amid bearish momentum and lack of positive catalysts....
2025-10-07 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear downtrend with recent volume capitulation on 9/5/2025 preventing short entry, no conditions met for long despite oversold RSI at 45 and support near 228, while awaiting stronger reversal signals or trend change for high-confidence multi-week hold....
2025-10-06 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA below SMA but price between them, close EMA/SMA distance indicating rangebound without volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for long or short despite recent bullish MACD crossover and bounce from support....
2025-10-03 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the clear downtrend persists without allowing new short entry due to recent volume capitulation on 9/5, and no basis for long entry given price below both EMA and SMA, with recent history of failed rebounds and breakdowns below supports like 240. Technical indicators reinforce caution: RSI at 45.41 suggests neither extreme oversold nor overbought, MACD at -2.511 remains negative with the line below signal, and Slow STO K/D at 24.19/24.87 points to weak upward momentum. The price closed at 240.37, testing near the falling resistance trendline around 245.71 but failing to break higher, while sitting above the major support at 227.77; however, Bollinger Bands are narrowing (upper 252.38, lower 234.91), hinting at potential consolidation but not yet a reversal. Volume on 10/3 was 8.85M, average, without capitulation signals, and the stock has respected resistance at 253 recently, with past simulations showing whipsaw in similar low-conviction setups (e.g., false bounces in September leading to losses, as in our 9/8 long entry that failed below 240 support)....
2025-10-02 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the clear downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation blocks new short entry, no uptrend or fresh capitulation for long, and price is rangebound between 235-250 without high-confidence breakout setup....
2025-10-01 CASH
Summary: Downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, but recent volume capitulation on 9/5 prevents new short entry, while no uptrend or fresh capitulation allows long, keeping us in cash for better setups....
2025-09-30 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the clear downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation within 2 months prevents short entry, no new capitulation allows long entry, and no high-confidence setup emerges near supports like 227 or resistances like 253 amid ongoing weakness....
2025-09-29 CASH
Summary: Clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both persists, but recent volume capitulation within the past two months prevents new short entry, while invalidated capitulation and lack of uptrend block long entry, favoring cash to await higher-confidence setup near key supports like 240 or clearer trend reversal. ...
2025-09-26 CASH
Summary: Clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation on 9/5 prevents new short entry, no fresh capitulation or uptrend signals for long, so staying in cash to await better setup....
2025-09-25 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear downtrend with recent volume capitulation preventing short entry, no new capitulation for long entry, and price testing key support at $240 without high-confidence setup for reversal or continuation over multi-week horizon....
2025-09-24 CASH
Summary: Downtrend continues with EMA below SMA and price below both, but recent volume capitulation on 9/5 prevents new short entry, while no uptrend or fresh capitulation allows long, so stay in cash for better opportunity targeting multi-week holds....
2025-09-23 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the clear downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation within 2 months prevents short entry, no new capitulation or uptrend allows long, and price near support at 240 suggests waiting for better setup....
2025-09-22 CASH
Summary: Unclear trend with EMA below SMA but price between them, recent volume capitulation already bounced to SMA invalidating new long entry, no clear downtrend for short without fresh capitulation, staying opportunistic for better setups....
2025-09-19 CASH
Summary: Clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation invalidated by sustained break below its low preventing long entry, and capitulation within past 2 months blocking short entry, so stay in cash for higher-confidence opportunity....
2025-09-18 CASH
Summary: Clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation on 9/5 prevents short entry, no valid setup for long despite slight recovery above prior lows, following exit on 9/17 due to break below $240 support amid bearish momentum....
2025-09-17 SOLD
Summary: Exiting long position at $241.76 as price has broken below key $240 support in confirmed downtrend without new volume capitulation, failing to rebound toward $278 resistance amid bearish news on slowing growth and analyst downgrades....
2025-09-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding existing long position from $252.27 as volume capitulation bounce remains valid with only 3 consecutive bars below the 9/5 low of $244.36, despite ongoing downtrend and price nearing $240 support, targeting potential rebound to $278 resistance over coming weeks amid mixed news sentiment....
2025-09-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding existing long position from $252.27 as volume capitulation bounce setup remains valid without 5 consecutive bars below the 9/5 low of $244.36, targeting $278 resistance over weeks despite current downtrend and price testing lower supports....
2025-09-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding existing long position from $252.27 as volume capitulation bounce setup remains valid without 5 consecutive bars below the 9/5 low of $244.36, targeting $278 resistance over weeks despite
2025-09-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding existing long position from $252.27 on 9/8/2025 after volume capitulation bounce, targeting $278 resistance over weeks amid bullish MACD signals and AI growth catalysts, despite recent pullback below capitulation low on 9/10 not sustaining for 5 bars to invalidate the setup....
2025-09-10 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding existing long position from $252.27 on 9/8/2025 after volume capitulation bounce, targeting $278 resistance over weeks amid bullish MACD signals and AI growth catalysts, despite current pullback in downtrend not yet invalidating the setup with sustained break below capitulation low....
2025-09-09 HOLD LONG
Summary: Holding long position entered at $252.27 on 9/8/2025 after volume capitulation bounce, with price above EMA amid potential reversal signals targeting $278 resistance over weeks, supported by bullish MACD and AI catalysts despite unclear trend....
2025-09-08 BUY
Summary: Entered long on 9/8/2025 at around $251.19 following volume capitulation bounce on 9/5 with bullish MACD crossover, price above EMA in potential reversal from downtrend, targeting resistance at $278 over weeks amid AI growth catalysts....
2025-09-05 COVERED
Summary: Clear downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, but today's volume capitulation at $249.69 signals potential reversal, prompting exit of short position near this low to avoid whipsaw risks seen in past failed breakdowns. Volume was lower than yesterday's sell-off (10.5M vs. MACD is negative at -0.7078 but improving slightly, RSI at 49.39 shows neutral momentum after oversold conditions, and SlowSTO hints at building upside with K at 59.59....
2025-09-04 SHORT
Summary: Clear downtrend confirmed with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent high-volume breakdown below key levels post-earnings weakness, targeting support around 227 for potential multi-week decline with favorable risk/reward....
2025-09-03 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA below SMA but price above both, high volume bounce without capitulation, and earnings report today introducing volatility risk, targeting better entry after resolution....
2025-09-02 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with price between EMA and SMA, no volume capitulation, earnings tomorrow on 9/3/2025, and recent downtrend without high-confidence short setup below EMA for a multi-week hold....
2025-08-29 CASH
Summary: Trend unclear with EMA below SMA but price between them, no volume capitulation, and upcoming earnings on 9/3/2025 prevent new entry to avoid holding through catalyst....
2025-08-28 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA below SMA but price above EMA, no volume capitulation for contrarian entry, upcoming earnings on 9/3/2025 risking volatility without meeting hold-through criteria, and recent price bounce from support but lacking strong bullish catalysts for a high-confidence long setup over the next few weeks....
2025-08-27 CASH
Summary: Downtrend persists but upcoming earnings on 9/3/2025 prevent entry into a new short position due to minimum hold period requiring holding through the event, which is not allowed without meeting specific criteria....
2025-08-26 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear downtrend without volume capitulation for long entry, inability to hold new short position for minimum 10-14 days without crossing upcoming earnings on 9/3/2025, and recent chart showing volatile consolidation near supports with no high-confidence setup for longer-term trade....
2025-08-25 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the clear downtrend offers short potential, but upcoming earnings on 9/3/2025 conflict with minimum 10-14 day hold requirement since we'd need to exit before to avoid holding through without meeting positive surprise criteria....
2025-08-22 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to confirmed downtrend but proximity to earnings on 9/3/2025, which conflicts with minimum 10-14 day hold without violating rules against holding through catalysts....
2025-08-21 CASH
Summary: Downtrend confirmed with EMA below SMA and price below both, but upcoming earnings on 9/3/2025 prevent entering a new short position that meets the minimum hold period without holding through the event....
2025-08-20 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to earnings report scheduled for today on 8/20/2025, avoiding entry right before or on the event despite the ongoing downtrend....
2025-08-19 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear downtrend but upcoming earnings tomorrow preventing new short entry, with price near recent lows after breakdown and no volume capitulation. No other major event catalysts within 3 days based on available info. Simulating past setups, similar breakdowns in July led to a profitable short from 250 to 240, but an earlier one failed with a rebound; here, the bounce to 245 today after hitting 231 last week suggests potential for whipsaw if earnings surprise positively, with <50% win rate on pre-earnings shorts in volatile periods like May's drop. Learning from history, the July 16 short lost on rebound amid positive news, so avoiding entry near potential reversal points without capitulation. Price is above the strong support at 227 but below falling resistance trendline around 262, offering poor risk/reward for immediate short; better to wait post-earnings for confirmation of downtrend continuation toward 227 over weeks, or reversal signals for long if capitulation appears. No insider activity, unusual options, or rumors shifting this; fundamentals like AI growth are supplemental but technicals dominate, and trend remains bearish overall.
2025-08-18 CASH
Summary: Downtrend confirmed with EMA below SMA and price below both, but upcoming earnings on 8/20/2025 within 3 days block new short entry despite favorable conditions below EMA and no volume capitulation....
2025-08-15 CASH
Summary: Upcoming earnings on 8/20/2025 prevent new entry as minimum hold would require holding through the event, violating guidelines amid a persistent downtrend without capitulation....
2025-08-14 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear downtrend but upcoming earnings on 8/20/2025 preventing a new short entry that meets minimum hold requirements, with price at 233.72 below EMA/SMA and no volume capitulation....
2025-08-13 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to confirmed downtrend but upcoming earnings on 8/20/2025 within the minimum hold period, lack of volume capitulation, and price near recent lows avoiding shorting at potential bottom with unfavorable risk/reward....
2025-08-12 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the clear downtrend offers short potential, but upcoming earnings on 8/20/2025 conflict with the minimum 10-14 day hold requirement without meeting criteria to hold through....
2025-08-11 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to clear downtrend without volume capitulation, recent profitable short exit, oversold conditions risking rebound, and upcoming earnings on 8/20/2025 preventing new entry that would hold through the event....
2025-08-08 CASH
Summary: Price is oversold near broken support in a downtrend without volume capitulation, but past patterns indicate high risk of rebound from similar lows, so staying in cash for a higher-confidence setup....
2025-08-07 COVERED
Summary: Covering short position from 8/1/2025 at $250.74 as price has reached and broken below $241 support level in persistent downtrend, securing profits near this key support amid oversold conditions and no volume capitulation, while monitoring for rebound risks from undervaluation sentiment and upcoming earnings on 8/20/2025....
2025-08-06 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Maintaining short position from 8/1/2025 at $250.74 as downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, targeting $241 support, while monitoring for potential rebound risks from undervaluation sentiment and avoiding hold through 8/20/2025 earnings....
2025-08-05 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Maintaining short position from 8/1/2025 at $250.74 as downtrend continues with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, targeting $241 support before 8/20/2025 earnings to avoid volatility, despite mixed sentiment from insider sales and bullish analyst upgrades....
2025-08-04 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Maintaining short position entered on 8/1/2025 at $250.74 as downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, recent breakdown targeting $241 support, and bearish sentiment from high-volume slide amid $1.5B AI investment news, with next earnings on 8/20/2025 providing potential catalyst but planning to monitor for exit near support before then to avoid volatility....
2025-08-01 SHORT
Summary: Entered short on 8/1/2025 at around $250.67 amid clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no volume capitulation, recent breakdown below key supports, and negative news from $1.5B investment announcement causing a 2.45% slide with high volume, targeting further decline to $241 support over the next few weeks for favorable risk/reward....
2025-07-31 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with tightly bound EMA/SMA, price crossing them twice recently without volume capitulation, plus recent short loss advising patience for better entry....
2025-07-30 CASH
Summary: The trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound below typical daily price ranges, combined with our recent short trade loss and positive AI-driven sentiment suggesting potential upside, so staying in cash avoids low-confidence entries....
2025-07-29 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but tightly rangebound and price oscillating between them without volume capitulation, so staying in cash to avoid low-confidence entries amid recent sideways consolidation around 260-270 after our prior short loss....
2025-07-28 CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA below SMA, price barely above both, multiple price crossings of averages without volume capitulation, and recent short trade loss advising patience for better entry....
2025-07-25 CASH
Summary: Stay in cash due to unclear trend with EMA below SMA, price barely above both without clear direction, recent short trade loss, mixed news on AI bullishness versus YTD plunge, and bearish options flow suggesting no high-confidence entry for long or short over the next weeks....
2025-07-24 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price fluctuating between them and multiple crossings in the past month without volume capitulation, so stay in cash to avoid new entries while monitoring for a clearer setup after recent short loss....
2025-07-23 CASH
Summary: The trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and price between them without volume capitulation, recent losing short trade advises caution, and no high-confidence setup for long or short entry given the guidelines and current chart patterns. There's no indication of volume capitulation flagged on the chart to justify buying a dip in this potential downtrend, and shorting is ruled out as price is above the EMA. Recent news highlights Salesforce's AI investments and academia partnerships for skill-building, with high trading volume of 1.759 billion ranking 35th on July 21, but the stock is down 21% YTD and lagging peers like Microsoft, as noted in reports from TipRanks and Zacks. Online discussions on X suggest some bullish sentiment with price targets up to $361 and mentions of a possible triple bottom around $258, but also acknowledge underperformance in tech; however, these are inconclusive and don't override the technical uncertainty. Simulating based on historical patterns, similar rebounds after breakdowns (like in April 2025 from $240 to $275) have sometimes led to further gains but often faced resistance around $278 (recently tested), with a <50% win rate on longs in unclear trends over the past 6 months, as seen in failed rallies in March and June that reverted to lows. The prior short entry on 7/16 at $257.95 was exited at a loss on 7/22 due to a failed breakdown and bullish catalysts like options activity and analyst upgrades targeting $430, reinforcing the need to avoid repeating chase trades or entering without confirmed trend reversal. No major event catalysts within the next 3 days, but the next earnings are likely late August 2025 for Q2 FY26 (based on patterns like Q1 reported May 28, 2025), which is outside the immediate window but supports holding off for clarity post-report if considering a longer hold. Overall, staying in cash preserves capital for a better risk/reward setup, perhaps after a break above $278 resistance or confirmed uptrend shift.
2025-07-22 COVERED
Summary: Exit short position to cash as the breakdown below 258 failed with price rebounding to 263 amid bullish unusual call options activity doubling volume, positive analyst outlook on AI and price hikes targeting $430, and no volume capitulation, suggesting potential reversal despite downtrend....
2025-07-18 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Continue short position as price bounce seems temporary in the ongoing downtrend with bearish MACD, low STO, and potential to retest 241 support over the coming weeks for favorable risk/reward, while monitoring for a break above 266 resistance....
2025-07-17 HOLD SHORT
Summary: Holding short on CRM as price remains below key resistance at 278 with bearish MACD and downtrend intact, targeting 241 support amid weak momentum and no bullish catalysts. ...
2025-07-16 SHORT
Summary: Recent price breakdown below 258 support level amid downtrend, bearish MACD, and post-earnings weakness from May, with potential to test 241 support over weeks for favorable risk/reward....