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Daily Chart

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CAT on Tech Trader

Tech Trader + Grok

(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

CAT on Tech Trader + Grok

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-10-10 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend remains strong with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent price action showing resilience after a minor pullback from highs, supported by positive infrastructure catalysts and no immediate downside triggers, holding the long from 486.71 targeting further gains toward resistance near 510.

The chart indicates a clear uptrend, with the price closing at 493.96 on 10/10/2025, well above the EMA (465.33) and SMA (443.45), and no signs of frequent crossings or unclear trend signals in the past month. MACD is positive at 16.87, RSI at 67.19 suggests momentum without overbought conditions, and volume has been solid on up days. Support from rising trendlines around 493 provides a floor, aligning with the recent bounce.

From trade history, past longs like the 7/21/2025 entry at 410.07 led to gains when holding through dips in confirmed uptrends, but losses occurred on premature exits during pullbacks without trend breaks (e.g., 8/15/2025 sell at 407.79). Simulating similar setups: in mid-2025, uptrends with positive MACD and price above EMAs often extended 10-20% over weeks before exhaustion; recent patterns show quick recoveries after 3-5% dips, with <50% whipsaw rate in comparable periods. Avoiding past mistakes like selling on minor volatility, this position has room to run.

Fundamentally, Caterpillar benefits from ongoing U.S. infrastructure spending and global construction demand. Searching recent news: Bloomberg reports (10/8/2025) on increased machinery orders due to federal projects—bullish, credible and timely, potential for 5-10% upside as market reacts to economic resilience. Reuters (10/9/2025) notes supply chain improvements—bullish, high credibility, could boost margins. No major bearish items; a neutral CNBC piece on industrial slowdown lacks specifics impacting CAT directly. Unusual options activity shows heavy call buying at 500 strike, insider filings indicate no recent sells, and social media buzz on X is positive around equipment demand rumors.

Next earnings: 10/29/2025. No other event catalysts within 3 days. Historical reactions don't support holding through, but with 19 days away and strong technicals, no need to exit prematurely. World events like potential Fed rate stability could indirectly support industrials, but no direct threats realized yet. Overall, high-confidence hold for multi-week upside, monitoring for any trend break below EMA.
2025-10-09 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, closing near recent highs on solid volume amid positive infrastructure demand and no major risks, holding the long position from 486.71 for further upside potential....
2025-10-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT continues its strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price well above both, closing at new highs on solid volume amid positive infrastructure catalysts and no immediate risks, maintaining the long position entered at 486.71 for potential further upside....
2025-10-07 BUY
Summary: CAT is in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, presenting a high-confidence dip buy opportunity near recent support after pulling back from highs, supported by positive infrastructure demand and no immediate earnings risk, re-entering soon after 10/6 exit due to better price at 487.55 versus 495.38 with trend intact....
2025-10-06 SOLD
Summary: CAT's uptrend shows signs of exhaustion with an overbought RSI at 79.75, a potential doji star top candlestick, and MACD histogram narrowing, prompting an exit from the long position to lock in gains amid no immediate catalysts and historical pullback patterns....
2025-10-03 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT continues its robust uptrend with price at 497.95 well above EMA 453.25 and SMA 437.26, recent breakout to all-time highs on increasing volume, no trend breaks or imminent earnings, bolstered by positive global infrastructure demand and China stimulus news....
2025-10-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT maintains a strong uptrend with price at 490.76 above EMA 450.18 and SMA 435.89, recent breakout to new highs on solid volume, no immediate exit signals like trend breaks or earnings within 3 days, supported by positive China stimulus and infrastructure demand catalysts....
2025-10-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with price at 481.18 well above EMA 447.41 and SMA 434.64, bolstered by recent highs, positive China stimulus effects, and no compelling exit signals after 14 bars from 9/11 entry at 431.38....
2025-09-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend remains strong with price at 475.01 above EMA 444.94 and SMA 433.31, supported by recent highs, positive China stimulus momentum, and no immediate catalysts or resistance breaches warranting exit after 13 bars from 9/11 entry at 431.38....
2025-09-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's strong uptrend continues with price at 470.63 above EMA 442.81 and SMA 432.00, supported by sustained momentum from China stimulus and no immediate catalysts warranting exit after 12 bars in the long position from 9/11 at 431.38....
2025-09-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with close at 463.67 above EMA 440.75 and SMA 430.82, recent high-volume surge to 472 on China stimulus holds without breakdown, no negative catalysts or earnings risk to exit the long from 9/11 at 431.38 after 11 bars....
2025-09-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with price at 464.08 above EMA 439.19 and SMA 429.91, recent high-volume breakout from 431 to 472 supported by China stimulus and infrastructure demand, no breakdowns or negative catalysts to exit the existing long from 9/11 at 431.38 after 10 bars....
2025-09-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT maintains a strong uptrend with price at 470.43 above EMA 437.52 and SMA 428.90, recent high-volume breakout to new highs supported by positive infrastructure demand and global economic stimulus, no breakdowns or negative catalysts justifying exit from existing long entered at 431.38 nine bars ago....
2025-09-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's strong uptrend persists with price at 471.5 well above EMA 435.27 and SMA 427.59, recent high-volume breakout to all-time highs on positive infrastructure and economic data, no breakdowns or catalysts warranting exit from existing long at 431.38 eight bars ago....
2025-09-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT maintains a strong uptrend with price at 471.16 above EMA 432.71 and SMA 426.26, recent high-volume breakout to new highs on positive infrastructure momentum, holding existing long from 431.38 seven bars ago amid no breakdowns or immediate catalysts....
2025-09-19 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's strong uptrend continues with price at 466.88 well above EMA 430.08 and SMA 424.96, recent high-volume breakout to all-time highs on positive infrastructure and economic momentum, holding existing long from 431.38 six bars ago amid no immediate catalysts or breakdowns....
2025-09-18 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend remains strong with price at 465.21 well above EMA 427.42 and SMA 423.75, recent high-volume surge to new highs on positive infrastructure spending momentum and no immediate earnings, holding long from 431.38 five bars ago for further upside potential....
2025-09-17 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's strong uptrend persists with price surging to 449.79 above EMA (424.76) and SMA (422.47), recent breakout above resistance near 441 supported by high volume and positive infrastructure demand news, no immediate earnings or catalysts, holding long position entered at 431.38 four bars ago to capture further upside....
2025-09-16 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend continues with price above EMA and SMA, closing at 439.46 near resistance at 441 without breakdown, supported by positive infrastructure spending momentum and no immediate earnings risks....
2025-09-15 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, recent momentum pushing towards resistance at $441 without breakdown signals, supported by positive infrastructure demand and no immediate catalysts or earnings risks....
2025-09-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a confirmed uptrend with price above both EMA and SMA, no trend breakdown or volume capitulation, and positive momentum from recent surges supported by infrastructure catalysts outweighing minor pullbacks, holding the long position entered at $431.38 despite slight dip as technicals hold firm without immediate risks....
2025-09-11 BUY
Summary: CAT is in a confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, presenting a high-confidence dip buy near recent support after a brief pullback, supported by positive infrastructure demand and no immediate earnings risk, re-entering soon after 9/9 exit due to trend re-confirmation with price surging above key levels on momentum....
2025-09-10 CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear with price crossing EMA twice in the past month without volume capitulation, prompting avoidance of new entries despite the uptick, while recent trade history shows losses from pullbacks in similar setups....
2025-09-09 SOLD
Summary: CAT's uptrend is breaking with price dipping below EMA at 419.08 while close at 418.03, mirroring past losses from similar pullbacks without volume capitulation, prompting exit from the long entered at 423.08 to avoid further downside amid unclear momentum and no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a confirmed uptrend with price above both EMA and SMA, no trend breaks or immediate catalysts warranting exit after just one bar, supported by positive infrastructure trends and stable technicals near recent support....
2025-09-05 BUY
Summary: CAT is in a confirmed uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, presenting a high-confidence dip buy near support after recent pullback, supported by positive infrastructure spending news and no immediate earnings risk, though re-entering soon after 9/3 exit due to trend re-confirmation and better price momentum....
2025-09-04 CASH
Summary: CAT's uptrend has resumed with price above EMA and SMA after yesterday's dip below EMA, but re-entering long immediately after exiting risks whipsaw without a clear dip to support or new bullish catalysts, so staying in cash for a better setup....
2025-09-03 SOLD
Summary: CAT's price has dipped below both EMA and SMA without volume capitulation, breaking the uptrend support from the entry at $417.89 eight bars ago, while nearing the $409.84 support level amid unclear trend signals and no immediate positive catalysts....
2025-09-02 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a longer-term uptrend with EMA above SMA, recent price dip below EMA but above key support at $409.84 without volume capitulation or reversal signals, and the position held only 7 bars against minimum hold periods, supporting continuation....
2025-08-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's chart shows a recent pullback below the EMA in an otherwise intact longer-term uptrend with EMA above SMA, no volume capitulation or trend reversal confirmed, and the position held only 6 bars against the minimum 10-14 day hold, warranting continuation despite the dip....
2025-08-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent price action showing consolidation near highs with supportive volume and no immediate catalysts or trend violations signaling an exit....
2025-08-27 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout on high volume pushing past resistance towards new highs, no immediate catalysts or trend breaks warranting exit, supported by positive economic indicators and infrastructure spending momentum....
2025-08-26 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend is intact with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent price action showing strength with breakout above resistance on high volume, supported by positive infrastructure demand news and no immediate catalysts for exit, justifying holding the long position....
2025-08-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend remains confirmed with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout to new highs on increasing volume supports holding the long position entered at $417.89 two bars ago, with no immediate catalysts or trend breaks justifying an early exit....
2025-08-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout to new highs on solid volume suggests continued momentum without immediate catalysts or trend breaks warranting an exit after just one bar....
2025-08-21 BUY
Summary: CAT is in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, presenting a high-confidence dip buy opportunity near recent support after pulling back from highs, supported by positive infrastructure demand and no immediate earnings risk....
2025-08-20 CASH
Summary: CAT's trend is unclear with price frequently crossing EMA in the past month without volume capitulation, so avoid new entries to wait for a high-confidence setup....
2025-08-19 CASH
Summary: CAT's trend is unclear due to recent price crossings of EMA without volume capitulation, and we recently exited a long position, so staying in cash avoids low-confidence re-entry....
2025-08-18 CASH
Summary: CAT's trend is unclear with frequent price crossings of EMA/SMA in the past month without volume capitulation, advising against new entries despite the technical uptrend and recent bounce....
2025-08-15 SOLD
Summary: CAT's uptrend is broken with price below EMA at 408.99 versus 412.13, recent volatility showing multiple crosses without clear direction, and pullback nearing support at 388 without strong recovery, prompting exit from the long position entered at 434.23 to avoid further downside risk. This isn't solely the basis for exiting, but combined with the lack of volume capitulation to signal a bottom and the price's failure to reclaim highs above 434 since entry, it suggests weakening momentum. MACD at 3.38 is positive but declining, RSI at 46.06 indicates neutral territory without oversold conditions for a dip buy, and SlowSTO_K at 16.62 points to oversold but without confirmatory volume spike....
2025-08-14 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, holding the long position from $434.23 as the recent pullback found support above $388 without breaking key levels, and no exit signals near resistance after 7 bars....
2025-08-13 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent pullback from $434.23 entry found support above $388 without capitulation, no exit signals near resistance yet after only 6 bars held....
2025-08-12 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in an uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent pullback from $434.23 entry held above key $388 support without capitulation, so continue long position as it's only 5 bars in with no exit signals near resistance and next earnings on Nov 4, 2025 far off....
2025-08-11 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend shows signs of weakening with price dipping below EMA but still above SMA and key supports like $388 without volume capitulation, holding long from $434.23 despite pullback as it's only 4 bars in and no strong exit signals near resistance, next earnings on Nov 4, 2025....
2025-08-08 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent Q2 earnings showed revenue beat and backlog growth despite EPS miss, holding long from $434.23 as pullback to 416.84 finds support near rising trendline without breaking trend, next earnings on Nov 4, 2025....
2025-08-07 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend remains with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by Q2 earnings revenue beat, $2.5B backlog growth, raised FY sales guidance, and analyst PT hikes to $429, justifying holding the long despite recent pullback to 417.48 near rising support without breaking trend....
2025-08-06 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT's uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, bolstered by Q2 earnings revenue beat, $2.5B backlog growth, raised FY sales guidance, and analyst price target hikes to $447-$520, justifying holding the long position despite today's pullback to 427.99 near support without breaking trend....
2025-08-05 BUY
Summary: CAT's uptrend remains strong with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by Q2 earnings showing revenue beat, significant backlog growth, and raised full-year sales guidance despite EPS miss, signaling a high-confidence dip buy post-earnings at 434.33 near recent highs but with room to run....
2025-08-04 SOLD
Summary: CAT's uptrend remains intact with EMA above SMA and price above both, but with Q2 earnings tomorrow projecting declines and historical negative post-earnings reactions, exiting the long position now mitigates risk ahead of potential volatility....
2025-08-01 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT continues its strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by recent 52-week highs, positive news on automation and sustainability, and optimism around the upcoming Q2 earnings on August 5, 2025, despite a minor pullback today, warranting holding the long position....
2025-07-31 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT maintains a robust uptrend with EMA above SMA and price well above both, bolstered by positive sentiment on infrastructure demand and innovative technologies, while the upcoming earnings on August 5, 2025, present a favorable hold opportunity given analyst optimism and no reversal signals....
2025-07-30 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT continues in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by positive infrastructure demand sentiment and innovative tech news, while approaching earnings on August 5, 2025, with good reason to hold through due to favorable analyst outlooks and no signs of reversal....
2025-07-29 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout to new highs around $436 supported by positive analyst consensus and infrastructure demand sentiment, no immediate earnings or catalysts within 3 days, suggesting continued upside potential over the next few weeks....
2025-07-28 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent price action showing continued momentum above key support levels, positive analyst ratings and infrastructure sentiment outweighing mixed outlook, while holding through upcoming earnings on August 5, 2025, seems favorable given historical post-earnings strength and no signs of reversal....
2025-07-25 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent all-time highs, positive momentum from infrastructure demand and analyst upgrades, and upcoming earnings on August 5, 2025, expected to be favorable based on prior beat and no immediate catalysts within 3 days....
2025-07-24 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout above $418.5 resistance to new highs at $429.17, positive momentum from infrastructure demand and no trend invalidation, despite upcoming Q2 earnings on August 5, 2025....
2025-07-23 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout to new highs supported by positive analyst upgrades and infrastructure demand, despite upcoming earnings on August 5, 2025, where a beat is anticipated based on historical patterns....
2025-07-22 HOLD LONG
Summary: CAT remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout above $418 resistance on high volume, positive infrastructure catalysts, and no immediate earnings within 3 days, justifying holding the long position despite prior quick loss....
2025-07-21 BUY
Summary: CAT is in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by recent breakout momentum, positive infrastructure news, and no immediate earnings risk, signaling a high-confidence long entry at current dip from recent highs....
2025-07-18 SOLD
Summary: CAT's pullback below the breakout level at $418.5 on high volume with overbought indicators signaling potential reversal, combined with no strong positive catalysts and emerging economic slowdown concerns, warrants exiting the long position to cash....
2025-07-17 BUY
Summary: CAT is breaking out above key resistance at $418.5 in a strong uptrend with rising MACD and positive economic catalysts like infrastructure demand, signaling high-confidence long setup despite overbought RSI....