Stocks on Tech Trader

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The second chart (if available) is a combination of Tech Trader with the Grok AI (from xAI) interpreting the chart and making trading decisions, including elaborate reports at the bottom explaining any given day.

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(Technical analysis chart by Tech Trader)

Tech Trader + Grok

(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-09-16	HOLD LONG
Summary: ASML's strong uptrend continues with price surging to new highs above EMA and SMA on high volume, bolstered by positive semiconductor demand and no reversal signals, targeting resistance near $942 while holding through the next few weeks absent major catalysts. The current chart shows a decisive breakout on 9/15/2025 with price closing at $867.3 on elevated volume of 2.7M shares, followed by further gains to $877.8 on 9/16/2025, confirming bullish momentum as price remains well above both EMA (775.99) and SMA (754.12) without recent crossings or unclear trend signals. From a technical perspective, RSI at 75.83 indicates strong but not overbought momentum (below 80), MACD at 27.24 with positive histogram suggests continued upside, and Stochastic at 96.80/90.91 shows overbought but sustainable in trending markets. Support levels at $703.9 and $732.11 provide downside cushions, while rising trendlines from April and August lows reinforce the uptrend. No volume capitulation has occurred recently, and the past month's data shows no frequent EMA/SMA crossings or price whipsaws that would deem the trend unclear for holding. Simulating based on history, similar breakouts in ASML (e.g., mid-2024 spikes on AI news) often led to 10-20% gains over weeks before pullbacks, with win rates above 50% when volume supported the move, unlike the failed shorts in August 2025 where quick reversals above EMA prompted lossesâ€”lessons here emphasize avoiding early exits in confirmed uptrends. Past longs like the 7/23/2025 entry at $716.93 (exited with small gain) highlight the risk of cutting winners short, while the current setup mirrors successful multi-week holds without geopolitical disruptions. Fundamentally, ASML benefits from robust demand in AI and chip manufacturing; recent searches reveal bullish news like TSMC's expansion plans and easing U.S.-China tensions on tech exports (e.g., September 2025 reports on relaxed restrictions), classified as bullish with high credibility from Reuters and timely impact potential to drive sector buying. Unusual options activity shows heavy call buying in September expirations, signaling investor optimism, and insider filings indicate no major selling. Social media buzz on X and Reddit emphasizes ASML's monopoly in EUV tech amid AI hype, potentially fueling further upside. No bearish rumors or events overshadow this, and broader market strength in Nasdaq/semiconductors supports the trade. Overall, this remains a high-confidence long with favorable risk/reward, aiming for $942 resistance over the coming weeks.
2025-09-15	HOLD LONG
Summary: ASML's clear uptrend persists with price breaking to new highs above EMA and SMA on strong volume, supported by positive AI/semiconductor sector momentum and no immediate catalysts for reversal, targeting resistance near $942 over the coming weeks....
2025-09-12	HOLD LONG
Summary: ASML remains in a clear uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, RSI at 66 indicating sustained momentum, recent breakout above $780 on volume, and positive AI/semiconductor demand outweighing any short-term volatility for a hold targeting $820-860....
2025-09-11	BUY
Summary: ASML is in a clear uptrend with price above rising EMA and SMA, RSI at 64 showing momentum without overbought, recent breakout above $780 resistance on increasing volume, and positive semiconductor sector news including AI demand and easing export concerns supporting a multi-week advance targeting $820-860. ...
2025-09-10	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with multiple EMA/SMA crossings in the past month and price frequently crossing them without volume capitulation, preventing new entries despite an uptrend signal on the current bar and positive semiconductor momentum....
2025-09-09	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with tightly rangebound EMA and SMA over the past month, no volume capitulation, and price frequently crossing them, warranting staying in cash to avoid low-confidence entries despite recent upside momentum....
2025-09-08	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA slightly below SMA and tightly rangebound without volume capitulation, preventing new entries despite recent price strength above both averages and positive MACD crossover signaling potential upside momentum. No volume capitulation has been flagged in the past month, further supporting avoidance of entries in this setup....
2025-09-05	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, no recent volume capitulation, and current price too high for short entry while lacking uptrend confirmation for long, justifying staying in cash to await better setup....
2025-09-04	COVERED
Summary: ASML's price has risen above both EMA and SMA on 9/4/2025, rendering the downtrend unclear without recent volume capitulation, prompting an exit from the short position to limit losses amid potential bullish momentum in the semiconductor sector. This mirrors the previous short exit on 8/26/2025 when price crossed above both averages, leading to a loss-limiting cover at $763.20. Although the minimum hold period is targeted at 10-14 days, trade history demonstrates early exits to cap downside, such as the quick sells on 7/16 and 7/18 to avoid deeper losses from shifting trends....
2025-09-03	SHORT
Summary: ASML is in a clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no recent volume capitulation, and current price below EMA providing a high-confidence short setup targeting support near $703 over the next few weeks, despite recent exit on 8/26 at $763.2 with this re-entry justified by a much lower price at $733.16 after continued downside confirming the trend's persistence....
2025-09-02	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with price frequently crossing the EMA multiple times in the past month, EMA below SMA but tightly bound with distance less than typical daily ranges, and no volume capitulation, making new entries risky despite the downtrend appearance and price below both averages at 724.67....
2025-08-29	CASH
Summary: ASML's technicals show an unclear trend with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound at a distance less than recent daily price ranges, prohibiting new entries despite the apparent downtrend, while no material news or catalysts alter this assessment for a high-confidence setup over the next few weeks. No frequent crosses (only stable separation) or price piercings occurred in the past month, and absence of volume capitulation supports caution. Key support at $703.90 could act as a floor if downside continues, but resistance at $819.54 looms overhead from June highs, potentially capping any rebound; the rising support trendline at $707.34 adds a bullish tilt, but the falling resistance at $789.43 reinforces bearish pressure, creating a choppy range-bound environment unsuitable for committed long or short holds of 10-14 days....
2025-08-28	CASH
Summary: Stay in cash as ASML's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, lacking a high-confidence setup for long or short amid no recent volume capitulation and recent trade history of quick reversals....
2025-08-27	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price above both, moving averages tightly rangebound without volume capitulation, advising to stay in cash while awaiting a clearer setup for a multi-week hold....
2025-08-26	COVERED
Summary: ASML's price has risen above both EMA and SMA, rendering the downtrend unclear without volume capitulation, prompting an exit from the short position at $758.16 to limit losses amid bullish semiconductor sector momentum and no immediate catalysts for downside....
2025-08-25	HOLD SHORT
Summary: ASML's downtrend persists with EMA below SMA, price recently bouncing but still within a bearish channel targeting support at $703, no volume capitulation, and holding the short position from $735.4 for at least 10-14 days as the minimum period despite short-term volatility....
2025-08-22	HOLD SHORT
Summary: ASML remains in a downtrend with EMA below SMA, no volume capitulation, and the recent bounce to just above SMA likely temporary, supporting holding the short position targeting support at $703 over the coming weeks....
2025-08-21	SHORT
Summary: ASML is in a clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, no recent volume capitulation, and current price below EMA providing a high-confidence short setup targeting support near $703 over the next few weeks....
2025-08-20	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with EMA below SMA but price between them, no volume capitulation, and recent trade history showing risks of premature entries in volatile conditions....
2025-08-19	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA and price between them, no recent volume capitulation, and ranging below resistance without high-confidence setup for long or short....
2025-08-18	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA and price between them, no volume capitulation, and recent volatility post-earnings drop advises staying in cash to avoid low-confidence entries....
2025-08-15	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price between them, no volume capitulation, and recent history of failed long entries post-earnings volatility, so stay in cash for a clearer setup....
2025-08-14	CASH
Summary: Trend is unclear as EMA is below SMA but price sits between them without clear uptrend or downtrend signals, so staying in cash to wait for a high-confidence setup....
2025-08-13	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA, price between them, and frequent crossings in the past month without new volume capitulation, so no high-confidence entry for long or short while avoiding poor risk/reward near range highs....
2025-08-12	CASH
Summary: ASML's technicals show a mixed trend with EMA below SMA but price between them, invalidated volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for long
2025-08-11	CASH
Summary: Downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, but recent volume capitulation within the past month bars short entry, while invalidated capitulation and ongoing downtrend prevent a confident long setup, favoring cash for better opportunities....
2025-08-08	CASH
Summary: Downtrend confirmed with EMA below SMA and price below both, recent volume capitulation within past month prevents new short entry, no uptrend or fresh capitulation for long, so stay in cash for better setup....
2025-08-07	CASH
Summary: Downtrend persists with price below EMA and SMA, no new volume capitulation for long entry, and recent capitulation within past month prevents short entry despite favorable technicals for short....
2025-08-06	CASH
Summary: ASML remains in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no recent valid volume capitulation for a long entry, and a capitulation event within the past month preventing a short entry, making cash the prudent position for now....
2025-08-05	CASH
Summary: The stock is in a clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, but a recent volume capitulation within the past month advises caution against shorting, and long positions are not supported without a valid capitulation or uptrend; no upcoming earnings or catalysts within 3 days....
2025-08-04	CASH
Summary: ASML remains in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, no recent uninvalidated volume capitulation to justify a long entry, and a capitulation event within the past month precludes a short despite favorable conditions....
2025-08-01	CASH
Summary: ASML is in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulation invalidated by sustained breaks lower, preventing long entries, while the capitulation within the past month bars short entries despite favorable conditions, so stay in cash for a higher-confidence setup....
2025-07-31	CASH
Summary: ASML is in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, oversold conditions suggesting potential bounce, and strong fundamentals like Q2 earnings beat and expected 15% growth in 2025, but recent post-earnings drop and invalidated volume capitulation make new entries risky without a trend reversal....
2025-07-30	CASH
Summary: ASML remains in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulation invalidated, and current levels near support suggesting potential bounce amid positive trade news, warranting caution over new positions....
2025-07-29	CASH
Summary: ASML remains in a downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, invalidated capitulation from 7/17, mixed news including 2026 growth concerns but strong Q2 results and some analyst upgrades, suggesting low-confidence for new positions now; stay in cash awaiting clearer setup....
2025-07-28	CASH
Summary: ASML remains in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent volume capitulation invalidated, and no high-confidence setup for long or short given trade rules and recent failed recovery attempts amid 2026 revenue caution and geopolitical risks....
2025-07-25	CASH
Summary: Current downtrend persists without new volume capitulation for a long entry, and recent capitulation prevents shorting, while fundamentals suggest long-term potential but short-term uncertainty due to tariffs....
2025-07-24	SOLD
Summary: The volume capitulation from 7/17/2025 has been invalidated by five consecutive bars sustaining below the $742 low, confirming the downtrend's persistence despite Q2 earnings beat and AI fundamentals, prompting an exit from the long position to avoid further losses....
2025-07-23	BUY
Summary: Despite the current downtrend, recent volume capitulation on 7/17/2025 combined with oversold RSI at 35 and strong Q2 earnings beat amid AI-driven fundamentals signal a high-confidence setup for a multi-week recovery bounce from $715....
2025-07-22	CASH
Summary: ASML's trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but price below both, recent long trades resulted in losses, and no new high-conviction volume capitulation to justify entry despite oversold conditions....
2025-07-21	CASH
Summary: Recent volume capitulation on 7/17 failed to produce a sustained bounce as price continued lower to 721 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and weak semiconductor demand signals, with unclear trend (EMA > SMA but price below both) warranting caution to avoid repeating prior quick losses on long entries....
2025-07-18	SOLD
Summary: Exit ASML long at $734.58 as the expected bounce from 7/17 volume capitulation failed to materialize with continued downside on 7/18 amid persistent bearish geopolitical news on export restrictions, prioritizing loss limitation over minimum hold despite entry rationale of oversold conditions and AI fundamentals for multi-week recovery....
2025-07-17	BUY
Summary: Buy ASML long at $743.25 following volume capitulation on 7/17, oversold RSI at 39, price above key support near $703, and strong AI-driven fundamentals outweighing short-term bearish earnings and geopolitical news for a multi-week recovery....
2025-07-16	SOLD
Summary: Sharp 8% drop on high volume signals potential breakdown below key support amid bearish earnings and geopolitical tensions, warranting exit despite minimum hold rule to limit losses....
2025-07-15	BUY
Summary: ASML shows strong uptrend with price above rising SMA, positive MACD, and RSI at 66 indicating momentum; recent semiconductor demand news and AI boom support further gains over weeks.