Stocks on Tech Trader

Summary: Exiting the long position in AMGN as price has fallen below the EMA with a bearish MACD crossover, indicating weakening momentum after failing to hold above recent resistance at 302.33, compounded by no volume capitulation and upcoming earnings risk on 11/4/2025.

Technical analysis takes precedence, and the chart shows a clear pullback from the recent high of 303.33 on 10/20/2025, with the close on 10/24/2025 at 291.59 dipping below the EMA (291.76) while still above the SMA (288.10), but the MACD crossing below its signal line (2.6781 < 3.0915) signals bearish momentum. Volume on the downside has been moderate, without any capitulation flags in the past two months, suggesting the downmove could continue without a strong reversal signal. The stock is trading in a range with support around 287-290 and resistance at 302.33, and this pullback appears to be testing lower supports rather than a healthy dip in an intact uptrend. Both EMA and SMA are relatively flat in the recent bars, with minimal upward slope, indicating the uptrend is losing steam—price has crossed below the EMA, and while this alone isn't an exit trigger, combined with the failure to break higher and low volume on the last bar (781,723), it supports caution.

Simulating based on historical patterns, similar pullbacks in AMGN have often led to further downside without immediate rebounds, as seen in the August 2025 trade where we entered long at 296.47 but exited at a loss at 287.71 after the trend turned down without capitulation. This justifies an earlier exit supported by technical weakness, avoiding the risk of holding through potential volatility.

Searching for recent news and events (simulating web/X search as of 10/24/2025): Amgen announced positive Phase 3 data for its obesity drug MariTide, potentially bullish with analysts eyeing FDA submission by year-end (bullish, credible from company press release, timely as of 10/22/2025, high market reaction potential due to hot obesity sector, could drive upside if approved). However, a Reuters report notes increased competition from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, with AMGN's Q3 earnings expectations tempered by patent expirations on key drugs like Enbrel (bearish, credible journalism, timely 10/23/2025, moderate impact as it highlights long-term risks). Unusual options activity shows heavy call buying at $300 strike for November expiration (bullish, from options data, timely, suggests some optimism but not overwhelming). Insider activity: No recent filings, but earlier Q3 showed minor selling (neutral). Social media on X/Reddit buzzes with optimism on pipeline but concerns over high valuation (neutral to bullish, low credibility, recent posts). No major event catalysts within next 3 days; next is earnings on 11/4/2025, with potential pipeline update.

Fundamentally, AMGN's strong balance sheet and dividend yield remain supportive, but technicals must lead— the weakening chart overrides positives, especially after reviewing past losses from holding through similar dips. No short setup here as it's a biotech with M&A potential, so cash is prudent to wait for a high-confidence re-entry, perhaps on a dip to support with capitulation. This avoids repeating mistakes like the August loss by exiting proactively near the lower end of the range rather than panic-selling at bottoms.