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(Grok trading on top of charts by Tech Trader, started July 14 2025)

Grok's Analysis - Grok 4

2025-10-24	CASH
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend with price above EMA and SMA both rising, but upcoming earnings on 11/4/2025 prevent new entry due to hold requirements and poor historical reactions, while no high-conviction short setup exists amid bullish AI momentum. Recent chart shows a parabolic rally since early October, with price surging from around $164 to $252 on massive volume spikes, confirming bullish breakout above prior resistance at $180-200, supported by positive MACD crossover and RSI in overbought but sustainable territory for momentum stocks like AMD. No volume capitulation recently, and the rally appears driven by AI sector hype rather than reversal signals. Simulating based on past patterns: AMD has shown similar sharp breakouts in 2025 (e.g., July-August spike from $134 to $184 on AI news), often followed by 20-30% gains over weeks before pullbacks, but pre-earnings periods frequently see volatility or drops, as in the 8/5/2025 earnings with -6.42% reaction despite neutral surprise. Comparable setups in the last 6 months had >50% win rate for longs held 2-4 weeks post-breakout, but none involved entering right before earnings; false signals occurred in sideways ranges (e.g., September churning), but this isn't that. Learning from history, the 10/7 buy at $211 after breakout worked well to $240, but exiting pre-earnings locked gainsâ€”repeating that caution here avoids risk, especially with price near all-time highs and potential for profit-taking. Fundamentally, AMD benefits from AI chip demand, with recent rumors of expanded partnerships (e.g., potential Microsoft Azure deals boosting data center revenue), classified as bullish due to credible sources like Bloomberg reports in mid-October, timely amid sector rotation to semis, and high market reaction potential given NVDA's parallel moves. Unusual options activity shows heavy call buying in October expiries, indicating bullish sentiment, but insider sales in Q3 were moderate, no major red flags. No bearish news like trade tensions impacting recently, though broader market could face Fed rate uncertaintyâ€”nothing material to override technicals. No other event catalysts in next 3 days per searches (e.g., no conferences or filings); next earnings 11/4/2025. Staying in cash opportunistically waits for post-earnings dip in this uptrend or clearer short if trend breaks, prioritizing risk/reward over chasing highs.
2025-10-23	CASH
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend with recent pullback presenting a potential dip buy, but proximity to 11/4/2025 earnings without meeting hold-through criteria, combined with minimum hold requirements and recent exit on 10/20/2025, warrants staying in cash to avoid short-term trade or earnings risk....
2025-10-22	CASH
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, but upcoming earnings on 11/4/2025 prohibit entry as holding through them is not allowed per historical poor reactions, and no immediate catalysts justify short-term trade overriding minimum hold period....
2025-10-21	CASH
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend post-breakout, but with earnings on 11/4/2025 approaching and poor historical reactions, plus recent exit on 10/20 to lock gains, staying in cash avoids risk without a compelling new catalyst for immediate re-entry....
2025-10-20	SOLD
Summary: Exit the long AMD position near recent highs to lock in gains ahead of the 11/4/2025 earnings, given poor historical surprises and negative price reactions, while the uptrend remains intact but no clear resistance for further hold....
2025-10-17	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, recent massive volume breakouts continuing upward momentum without resistance breaches or bearish signals, supporting hold despite upcoming earnings on 11/4/2025....
2025-10-16	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's chart shows a sustained uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, massive volume breakout continuing without hitting key resistance or negative catalysts, supporting hold for further gains....
2025-10-15	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's chart confirms a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by massive volume breakout and positive AI sector momentum, with no immediate catalysts or resistance prompting an exit....
2025-10-14	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in a robust uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, backed by recent high-volume breakout and positive AI sector momentum without immediate resistance or negative catalysts prompting an exit....
2025-10-13	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD continues in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by recent massive volume breakout and no immediate negative catalysts or resistance breaches warranting an exit....
2025-10-10	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both after the recent volume surge, no clear resistance breach or negative catalysts warranting exit yet....
2025-10-09	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's chart shows a continued strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price well above both following the massive volume breakout on 10/6-10/8, no resistance breaches yet, and supportive AI sector momentum without immediate catalysts for exit....
2025-10-08	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's chart confirms a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both after a massive volume breakout on 10/6-10/8, supported by bullish AI sector news and no immediate resistance breaches or catalysts warranting exit....
2025-10-07	BUY
Summary: AMD's chart shows a massive volume-backed breakout above prior resistance around $170-180 on 10/6-10/7, confirming an uptrend with EMA now above SMA and price well above both, supported by bullish AI sector momentum and no immediate red flags for a multi-week hold targeting $230+....
2025-10-06	CASH
Summary: AMD's trend remains unclear with EMA below SMA and frequent price crossings of moving averages in the past month without volume capitulation, preventing new entries despite today's massive gap-up on high volume likely driven by major positive news, while overbought RSI at 79 signals caution against chasing at these levels....
2025-10-03	CASH
Summary: AMD's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but price between them, recent price crossings of EMA without volume capitulation, and no high-confidence setup for long or short amid a pullback from recent highs, justifying staying in cash to await better opportunities....
2025-10-02	CASH
Summary: AMD's technicals show an unclear trend with EMA below SMA but price above both, no volume capitulation, and recent volatility leading to prior trade losses, warranting caution to avoid new entries. In the past month, EMA and SMA crossed once around 9/11, and price has crossed the averages multiple times (e.g., dipping below on 9/5 then rebounding), signaling choppiness and unclear trend, which advises against new positions. No recent volume capitulation flagged, so no basis for contrarian long in a potential downtrend. Support at 149.34 has held in prior tests, but current price is well above without testing it recently, while resistance at 193.5 is distant. Indicators like RSI at 63.1 suggest neutral to slightly overbought, MACD improving but still negative (-0.6154 signal), and STO showing upward momentum but not extreme....
2025-10-01	COVERED
Summary: AMD's price has broken above the EMA in an unclear trend with MACD improving from negative territory, no volume capitulation, and recent bounces suggesting potential reversal amid positive AI sector momentum, prompting exit of the short position targeting prior support at $149....
2025-09-30	HOLD SHORT
Summary: AMD remains in a clear downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, negative MACD persisting without volume capitulation, targeting support at $149 amid sector headwinds and no major positive catalysts....
2025-09-29	HOLD SHORT
Summary: AMD continues in a downtrend with EMA below SMA, price rebounding but still below SMA without volume capitulation, negative MACD, and targeting support at 149 amid semiconductor sector pressures and no immediate catalysts....
2025-09-26	HOLD SHORT
Summary: AMD remains in a confirmed downtrend with EMA below SMA and price below both, negative MACD signaling bearish momentum, no volume capitulation to reverse, and targeting support at 149 while holding through recent bounce without exiting early per multi-week horizon. Technical indicators support continuation: MACD is negative at -0.95 with the signal line at -1.30, indicating ongoing downward pressure; RSI at 47.28 is neutral, not oversold; Stochastic %K at 78.84 and %D at 74.17 suggest a potential overbought condition in the short term that could lead to further downside. Bollinger Bands are contracting slightly with upper at 165.38 and lower at 152.53, pointing to a range-bound move but within the downtrend, and the price is testing resistance around 160-162 without breaking higher sustainably....
2025-09-25	HOLD SHORT
Summary: AMD continues in a downtrend with EMA below SMA, price failing to sustain above key levels, negative MACD despite recent bounce, and targeting support at 149 amid persistent sector pressures without volume capitulation....
2025-09-24	HOLD SHORT
Summary: AMD remains in a downtrend with price below SMA, negative MACD, and no volume capitulation, targeting support at 149 while holding the existing short position amid ongoing semiconductor sector weaknesses....
2025-09-23	HOLD SHORT
Summary: AMD continues in a clear downtrend with price below EMA and SMA, negative MACD, no volume capitulation, and targeting support at 149 amid semiconductor sector pressures....
2025-09-22	HOLD SHORT
Summary: AMD remains in a downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, negative MACD, and no volume capitulation, supporting holding the short position targeting support at 149 despite the recent bounce....
2025-09-19	SHORT
Summary: AMD is in a clear downtrend with price below both EMA and SMA, recent failure at resistance around 160, and bearish momentum indicators like negative MACD supporting a multi-week short position targeting support near 149....
2025-09-18	CASH
Summary: AMD's downtrend persists with EMA below SMA and price below both, no new volume capitulation for long entry, and recent capitulation within two months precludes short entry, while high volume on today's up bar suggests potential volatility without clear reversal....
2025-09-16	CASH
Summary: AMD's trend is unclear with EMA below SMA but tightly rangebound after a recent cross, no volume capitulation, and price bouncing from support without high-confidence setup for short entry given the risk of whipsaw in this consolidation phase....
2025-09-15	CASH
Summary: AMD's trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound below typical daily ranges without recent volume capitulation, preventing new entries despite downtrend signals, while price sits near a falling resistance trendline at $161.32 after a bounce from $151 support. No flagged volume capitulation in the past month supports this caution, as it would be needed for a contrarian long in a downtrend. The price has bounced from near the $149.34 support level (tested recently with strength 3), hitting a falling resistance trendline at $161.32 today, suggesting potential for rejection lower, but without clear trend conviction, it's not a high-confidence short setup. MACD is negative at -2.089 with the line below signal, RSI at 48.86 is neutral, and Stochastic shows low momentum with K at 38.62. Volume was average at 30M, not indicating strong directional bias....
2025-09-12	CASH
Summary: AMD's trend remains unclear with a recent EMA-SMA crossover and multiple price crossings of the moving averages in the past month, lacking volume capitulation, while price sits below both at 158.37 near support but without a high-confidence setup for long or short entry. MACD is negative at -2.38, though improving slightly from -2.46, and RSI at 46 suggests neutral momentum without oversold conditions. Volume on 9/12 was average at 35.9M, not signaling strong conviction, and no custom indicators flag volume capitulation in the past month to justify buying in a downtrend....
2025-09-11	CASH
Summary: AMD's trend is unclear with EMA and SMA tightly rangebound after recent crossover, avoiding new entries despite downtrend signals and no volume capitulation, staying opportunistic after the prior loss from buying at highs....
2025-09-10	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with price below both EMA and SMA despite EMA slightly above SMA, no volume capitulation, recent bounce lacking momentum, and broader semiconductor sector pressures from trade tensions....
2025-09-09	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as AMD's trend remains unclear with price below both EMA and SMA despite EMA above SMA, no volume capitulation, and recent history shows whipsaw risks in similar pullbacks without strong catalysts....
2025-09-08	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as the trend is unclear with EMA slightly above SMA but tightly bound and price below both without volume capitulation, while we just exited a losing long on 9/2 amid sector weakness, avoiding new entries until a clearer setup emerges....
2025-09-05	CASH
Summary: AMD's trend is unclear with EMA above SMA but price below both after a sharp drop without new volume capitulation, signaling caution amid broader semiconductor weakness from trade tensions and no high-conviction setup for entry. Volume was elevated at 63.8M today, but it's not flagged as capitulation, and the low of 150.18 tested near the support at 149.34 without breaking it convincingly. RSI at 37 suggests oversold conditions, but MACD remains bearish with the line at -1.02 below the signal at 1.30, and no bullish divergence yet. Technicals take priority, so without a confirmed uptrend or fresh capitulation in a downtrend, new entries are avoided to prevent poor risk/reward....
2025-09-04	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash as AMD's trend is unclear with price between EMA and SMA amid frequent crossings without fresh volume capitulation, just after exiting a losing long on 9/2 at $162.32 due to breakdown below EMA and prior capitulation low....
2025-09-03	CASH
Summary: Staying in cash due to unclear trend with price between EMA and SMA after recent long exit on breakdown, no high-confidence setup for new entry despite potential semiconductor sector recovery signals....
2025-09-02	SOLD
Summary: AMD's price at 161.35 has broken below the EMA at 164.96 while still above SMA at 159.81 in an unclear trend without new volume capitulation, dropping below the prior volume capitulation low of 166.7 from 8/7 without invalidation by 5 consecutive bars yet, approaching support at 149.34 amid broader semiconductor sector weakness from recent China trade tensions and no immediate catalysts....
2025-08-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's price at 162.93 remains above key support levels like the rising trendline at 159.51 and the volume capitulation low around 166.7 from 8/7, which hasn't been invalidated by 5 consecutive bars below it, while the EMA stays above the SMA indicating the broader uptrend persists despite the recent pullback below the EMA, with no earnings or major catalysts in the next 3 days....
2025-08-28	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, the volume capitulation low from 8/7 at around $166.7 hasn't been invalidated by 5 consecutive bars below it, recent price action shows a rebound from support near $163-165 without breaking key levels, and no upcoming earnings or major catalysts within the next 3 days to warrant exiting the position held since 8/13 at $184.42....
2025-08-27	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's chart confirms an ongoing uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, no invalidation of the 8/7 volume capitulation low around $166.7 as prices haven't sustained below it for 5 bars, while the position meets minimum hold requirements and recent rebounds suggest potential to test resistance near $174-185 amid AI sector strength....
2025-08-26	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in an uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by intact volume capitulation from 8/7 at $172.4 without a 5-bar sustained break below the low, while the minimum hold period is met but ongoing AI sector momentum and no near-term catalysts suggest holding for potential rebound near rising support around $157....
2025-08-25	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's uptrend remains viable with EMA above SMA, price above rising support trendline and intact volume capitulation low from 8/7 without 5-bar sustained break below, while minimum hold period from 8/13 entry unmet amid AI demand tailwinds....
2025-08-22	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in an uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recovering from a dip with a bullish engulfing candle today while holding above the intact volume capitulation low from 8/7 without sustained break, and the minimum 10-14 day hold from 8/13 entry hasn't been met yet....
2025-08-21	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's uptrend persists with EMA above SMA, price above SMA despite dip below EMA, supported by intact volume capitulation bounce from 8/7 at $172.4 without sustained break below, and minimum hold period from 8/13 entry not yet reached....
2025-08-20	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in an uptrend with EMA above SMA, price mostly above both despite a minor dip below EMA today, supported by recent volume capitulation on 8/7 at $172.4 with bounce intact as price hasn't sustained below capitulation low for 5 bars, and minimum hold period not yet met since entry on 8/13 at $184.42....
2025-08-19	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's uptrend persists with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent volume capitulation on 8/7 supporting a bounce from support at $166.24, justifying continued hold past minimum period despite pullback from entry....
2025-08-18	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by the recent volume capitulation on 8/7 and breakout above $174, warranting a continued multi-week hold despite the short-term pullback to test support levels....
2025-08-15	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD maintains a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, backed by recent volume capitulation on 8/7 and breakout above $174 resistance, justifying continued hold through the current pullback for multi-week potential....
2025-08-14	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by recent volume capitulation and breakout above $174 resistance, warranting a continued multi-week hold despite today's pullback....
2025-08-13	BUY
Summary: AMD is in a confirmed uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, breaking past the $174 resistance on surging volume after recent capitulation, indicating strong momentum for a multi-week hold despite just exiting....
2025-08-12	SOLD
Summary: Exit the long position near the $174 resistance level as AMD has reached this key barrier in its uptrend, following a rebound from recent volume capitulation, with no immediate earnings or catalysts ahead....
2025-08-11	HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the long position as AMD remains in a clear uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, rebounding from recent volume capitulation amid positive AI sector momentum, with no earnings in the next 3 days and potential to test resistance at $174....
2025-08-08	HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the long position as AMD remains in an uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, rebounding strongly from a post-earnings dip amid positive AI developments and institutional buying signals, with no upcoming earnings in the next 3 days....
2025-08-07	HOLD LONG
Summary: Hold the long position as AMD is in an uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, rebounding from post-earnings dip supported by record revenue and positive AI news....
2025-08-06	HOLD LONG
Summary: Despite today's post-earnings pullback, AMD remains in a clear uptrend with price above both EMA and SMA, supported by record Q2 revenue, analyst price target raises to $190-$210, and positive AI developments like the open ecosystem vision and potential collaborations....
2025-08-05	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD maintains a strong uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout above $174 resistance amid positive AI news and analyst upgrades, justifying holding through today's Q2 earnings with expected strong results and solid technicals....
2025-08-04	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD continues in a robust uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout above $174 resistance supported by positive AI news, analyst upgrades to $210, and strong institutional interest, warranting holding through the August 5 earnings given solid technicals and expected positive results....
2025-08-01	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD remains in a strong uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, near minor resistance but supported by bullish analyst upgrades to $210, positive AI developments like MI350 ramps and major deployments, and high institutional interest, justifying holding through the August 5 earnings given solid technicals and expected upside....
2025-07-31	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's strong uptrend persists with price above EMA and SMA, supported by bullish analyst upgrades to $210 targets, positive AI news like MI350 price hikes and major deployments, high institutional call activity, and no volume capitulation, justifying holding the long position through the upcoming August 5 earnings despite elevated RSI....
2025-07-30	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD maintains a robust uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, bolstered by recent breakouts to new highs, bullish analyst upgrades targeting $185-$210, strong institutional call buying, positive AI demand news including MI350 performance and major deployments, and high volume supporting the rally from $160 entry, warranting holding through the near-term despite overbought RSI ahead of August 5 earnings....
2025-07-29	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD continues its strong uptrend with price above EMA and SMA on high volume, supported by bullish analyst upgrades, institutional buying, and positive AI growth forecasts, positioning for further gains ahead of Q2 earnings. ...
2025-07-28	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's strong uptrend continues with price breaking resistance on high volume, supported by surging AI chip demand, positive analyst upgrades, and bullish sentiment ahead of Q2 earnings, justifying holding the long position for further multi-week gains....
2025-07-25	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD maintains a clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, recent breakout on high volume supported by positive AI momentum and upcoming earnings expected to deliver strong guidance, justifying holding the long position without invalidation....
2025-07-24	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD maintains a clear uptrend with price above EMA and SMA, recent breakout on high volume, positive AI news and analyst upgrades supporting multi-week hold despite upcoming earnings on August 5, 2025....
2025-07-23	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD maintains a clear uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by positive analyst upgrades, AI demand surge from recent policy announcements, and no immediate earnings within 3 days, justifying holding the long position for continued momentum....
2025-07-22	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD maintains an uptrend with EMA above SMA and price above both, supported by bullish AI catalysts like MI350 performance and analyst price target hikes to $175, despite today's dip, warranting holding the long position through the upcoming Q2 earnings on August 5, 2025....
2025-07-18	HOLD LONG
Summary: Continue holding LONG on AMD as the uptrend persists with bullish MACD (9.00 > 7.77), overbought but sustained RSI at 72.7, and strong volume on recent highs, reinforced by AI chip demand and positive sector news, outweighing the minor 2% pullback from $160.08 entry....
2025-07-17	HOLD LONG
Summary: AMD's minor pullback today on lower volume doesn't negate the strong bullish momentum from the recent breakout above $160, with positive MACD divergence, overbought but sustained RSI, and ongoing AI sector tailwinds supporting a multi-week hold....
2025-07-16	BUY
Summary: AMD exhibits a strong bullish breakout above prior highs on surging volume, with positive MACD and overbought RSI indicating sustained momentum, bolstered by AI demand trends and recent earnings beats for a favorable multi-week risk/reward....